I have built a match simulation engine depending on ELO points to analyse various leagues in Europe. This is the percentages of survival, depending on what West Ham does tonight.
Edit : Wolves and Burnley get relegated in every simulation, even if Spurs and Hammers lose every single match.
by getzisch
13 Comments
If we win every game, then West Ham vs Forest would decide who gets relegated?
Jaysus… we are in the finest, finest of margins now. Can’t believe we didn’t pick up more points against Sunderland and Brighton.
Tonight is huge, but basically it tells me what I thought we needed anyway:
1. We have to get to 8 points, minimum, and realistically 9. That means no excuses: Wins v Wolves, Leeds, Everton **minimum.**
2. If West Ham get a win tonight, that becomes 10+ points, which means we need to show something we haven’t in years: consistency! We’d need to grab points from Villa and/or Chelsea in this run too. Tricky, but not impossible.
A West Ham loss tonight would be devastating for their confidence. Huge game.
This is interesting, but it can all flip round after the next two, depending what madness occurs.
I think we need 10 points.
Why do we have a 100% chance of staying up in the last sim with 11 points but 98.75% chance with 12 points? Does it have to do with whatever the result would be vs Leeds?
I see us getting 9 points. Danso’s mistake against Brighton really made relegation likely, although it was an entire year of team failures.
We really need West Ham to lose tonight. If they win, we then need 11. If Forest win again, we need 12.
That’s the best way to think about it right now.
So basically we need to wom
I honestly don’t know whether to upvote this for the effort or downvote it for the horrible, horrible results 😂
So in every scenario, if we win every remaining game we are guaranteed survival?
I’ll take that…
I can see it now. We will win a few games and all of a sudden the team will click and we will look amazing. Other results will go against us and we will get relegated, players sold off and were stuck for the next 5 years wondering what could have been with that squad.
It’s peak spurs fuckery written all over it
Basically if west ham win today we are in big big trouble. Like expecting 3 wins 2 draws for the next 5 games trouble. Which is nigh impossible given we can’t even expect that confidently with Poch in 2019 let alone now
Anyone got a palace shirt I can borrow?
So 3 wins minimum needed realistically. Could happen against Leeds, Wolves and Everton