How Manchester City destroyed Chelsea: a tactical analysis of the match.

I wrote a tactical breakdown of the Manchester City vs Chelsea match on my Substack blog. It’s easier to read there, but I’m posting it here as well.

After City’s Champions League exit and two straight Premier League draws against Nottingham Forest and West Ham, it looked like Manchester City were collapsing at the decisive stage of the season.

But Guardiola’s team regrouped and convincingly won three consecutive matches against top sides. Arsenal, Liverpool and Chelsea conceded nine goals combined and scored none. Guardiola has recalibrated the press and seems to have finally found the balance between defense and attack.

A tactical breakdown of City’s dominant win over Chelsea.

Compared to the previous game — the win over Liverpool — Guardiola made just one change: replacing cup goalkeeper Trafford with Donnarumma.

Nominally, City lined up in a 4-2-3-1, but out of possession they shifted into Guardiola’s preferred 4-2-4 pressing shape, and in possession into a classic 3-2-5, with O’Riley pushing forward and Bernardo and Cherki operating in free roles, occupying spaces between the lines.

Chelsea defended in a 5-3-2, with Santos dropping into the back line as a fifth defender. Maresca’s team tried to break City’s first line of pressure through the Semenyo–Cherki zone. João Pedro had a specific role, occasionally dropping into midfield to help build up play. The Brazilian dragged Rodri and Semenyo out of position, leaving Cucurella free on the flank — Chelsea used this pattern several times to progress attacks.

Chelsea created three dangerous attacks in the first half (all down the left) and even scored — but the goal was ruled out for a marginal offside on Cucurella. I’ve said many times this season that Matheus Nunes has been City’s standout player in terms of development, consistency and confidence in his new role. Rewatching the game, I focused on his positioning during Chelsea’s dangerous sequences on his flank.

In the disallowed goal, City’s players failed to coordinate responsibility for Cucurella. Semenyo initially tracked him, then moved centrally, while Nunes didn’t cover the gap in time. City were fortunate — the offside was minimal.

In the first half, the teams were evenly matched: City created chances — shots from Bernardo, Semenyo, Cherki — and Chelsea responded well. xG: 0.57 for City vs 0.35 for Chelsea.

Five minutes after halftime, O’Riley scored, and City didn’t let Chelsea recover — adding two more goals within 17 minutes. The structure didn’t change, but the key factor was the brilliance of Rayan Cherki.

For the first goal, Cherki assisted O’Riley. Credit also to Haaland — a good answer to the question of what he does in big games: exactly what he always does. He occupies defenders and creates space. In that moment, two players were marking Haaland, leaving the 180 cm Santos to contest an aerial duel with the 193 cm O’Riley.

City’s second goal perfectly illustrates Cherki’s chaos and genius. In Guardiola’s highly structured system, it’s almost unthinkable for a player to attempt two dribbles outside the box when 8 out of 9 outfield teammates are ahead of the ball. The risk of a counterattack is huge. But Cherki executed it effortlessly — beating defenders with feints, lifting his head, assessing the situation, and delivering a no-look assist to Guehi.

The third goal featured Klopp-style counter-pressing — no surprise given the arrival of Lijnders. Sánchez passed to Caicedo, who was immediately swarmed by three City players, cutting off all passing options.

Key takeaways:

Guardiola’s favorite tool against counterattacks is the tactical foul at the earliest stage of transition. A crucial aspect is how quickly the team resets from attacking shape into defensive structure. On rewatch, there were seven such fouls — mainly by Rodri, O’Riley and Nunes. It’s unclear how Rodri avoided a yellow card. A unique skill passed down from Fernandinho.

O’Riley is Guardiola’s main weapon in the box. A second striker, a left-back, and a central midfielder all in one. Nico has scored 6 goals in his last 10 matches in all competitions. Excluding penalties, only João Pedro (7) has scored more in the Premier League during that period.

City won 75% of aerial duels against Chelsea. Given their pressing setup, which often forces opponents into long balls, this is a crucial metric.

Despite Cherki’s brilliance, Marc Guehi was named Man of the Match. His best performance for City: 102 passes, 101 completed (99% accuracy), 3 tackles, 3 interceptions, 3 aerials won, 2 blocks — and a goal.

Guardiola — or his successor — will face a selection headache at center-back next season: Guehi, Khusanov, Dias, Gvardiol.

The Premier League continues to deliver. Guardiola has done everything possible in recent matches to apply pressure on Arteta in the title run-in.

Apologies for the Russian labels on the tactical board: the article was originally written in Russian, and redoing them would take too long — it should still be clear as it is.