Last time I posted was following the Everton game. Pre-match we’d been about 50/50 for any form of Europe next season, after that match it was down to 34%. Results against Man Utd and Chelsea picked us right back up, and as of Friday I was getting 54% out. Yesterday was a bit of a disaster with all the teams around us winning but we were still 47% as of this morning, today was obviously a huge blow.
We’re still right in it though, 26% is significant. The model knows we have a pretty easy run-in but it doesn’t have any concept of rest/training time between games, nor that Bruno (and maybe others) will be back (it is purely based on match odds over the last 5 gameweeks). The true chance is probably more like 1/3.
Griffithsjames88 on
Still got to play Brighton and Bouremouth home then Arsenal away and Fulham away. Four very difficult games against teams we usually struggle against. 26% is very generous.
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Last time I posted was following the Everton game. Pre-match we’d been about 50/50 for any form of Europe next season, after that match it was down to 34%. Results against Man Utd and Chelsea picked us right back up, and as of Friday I was getting 54% out. Yesterday was a bit of a disaster with all the teams around us winning but we were still 47% as of this morning, today was obviously a huge blow.
We’re still right in it though, 26% is significant. The model knows we have a pretty easy run-in but it doesn’t have any concept of rest/training time between games, nor that Bruno (and maybe others) will be back (it is purely based on match odds over the last 5 gameweeks). The true chance is probably more like 1/3.
Still got to play Brighton and Bouremouth home then Arsenal away and Fulham away. Four very difficult games against teams we usually struggle against. 26% is very generous.
Hey, 0.9% isn’t 0% right?
Cope