The over performance of PSG goal scoring against us due to terrible defending and goalkeeping makes for such an insane statistical outlier
MONI_85 on
Should be enough for anyone who had the misfortune of watching both ties to never pay any attention to this ridiculous measurement from here on.
EstevaoWillian on
They had their shooting boots on for sure but xG is still so misleading here. They cut us apart plenty of times and we gave them the space in and around the box to shot. A goal like Vitinha’s as well would be considered low xG but Jorgensen gave the ball away and then was way off his line so you can’t say they got lucky.
primoshevek on
I mean they have some of the world’s best attackers in their team, including the current ballon d’or holder. You’d expect players of that calibre to overperfrom the average. But yeah, xG is misleading here. They opened us up time and time again.
Valuable_Proposal_56 on
Great stuff who have we got in the quarter finals?
istilllovemata on
xG doesn’t show how easily PSG got through us. The eye test does.
Chudlezz on
This should be cited every time one of those xG-merchants tries to tell you this stat matters.
No one with eyes would conclude Chelsea outperformed PSG in either leg of this tie.
Sensitive_Ad8147 on
I actually think this is more fair than everyone is saying. We had so many chances bottled. They took their chances at a world class level and converted them at a crazy clip. A huge difference in finishing combined with awful goal keeping was way more the story than anything else.
With that being said I think the moral hit alone means you have to move on from Liam if he drops points vs Everton
mrfatchance on
More proof that xg means fuck all when it comes to getting a result. We’ve known this since Potter was our manager. High xg with nothing to show for it
ArtetasSecretBaldCap on
We were an excellent team over two legs but they’re just better. This is not the same hungover team from the club World Cup, we came against a speeding train and got run over.
Reminds me of 19/20, we got beaten worse by Bayern but it was very clearly obvious we had a good team on our hands, we just needed to strengthen one more time before we can win the champions league with that same core.
I say you guys just stop stressing over the small stuff (like getting beaten by the best team on the planet) and just be excited for this run of games coming up
Storm_Chaser06 on
Our backline is a fucking shambles
Zolazolazolaa on
This just shows the great flaws in xG. Doesn’t tell the tale of the tie at all.
belugadawen on
It’s almost like they have clinical attackers and we have piss poor defenders and goalkeepers
Frequent-Position on
Embarrassing but funny.
Corey_Trevyr on
Can we get an AFCON email over here so the right team is credited for the win?
Stankela77 on
These don’t mean anything. Not a single thing
YoYoYi2 on
Guys , were in trouble. I knew we were screwed from the first kick of the ball deep to Sanchez. The goalkeepers and defence have got to go. Maybe keep cucurella but that’s it.
kp22cfc on
Do we really care about xG when the aggregate loss is 8-2???
Stealth_Howler on
Astonishing
Scrambled_Rambler on
Who gives a shit, we got our ass handed and the root of the problem goes high uk the ladder with some of our best players likely to leave . Arsenal winning the league and maybe the UCL.
What do I have to be positive about as a chelsea fan? Fuck blueco.
king_of_prussia33 on
PSG produced some incredible finishes, and if you look at their post-shot xG, they only slightly overperformed. We gave them so much time to get a shot off at the edge of the box, and players of their quality will punish you for that.
blueflare117 on
Bradley Barcola is genuinely a terrible finisher and he scored two absolute bangers against us…should say it all lol
invisibleep on
I’ll never understand why we give attackers so much space in the box. They really punished us for that and called our bluff. We are lucky to not go against such an elite attack every week because the holes in our defense would be exposed constantly. We are lower-mid table in terms of defensive quality.
Supreme_Nub on
I hate seeing xG statistics. Just feels like such a nothing burger
Loki_123 on
Honestly, the style of football we’re trying to play is just not the correct play style for the squad we currently have. We keep trying to play out from the back and we keep conceding because of it. I can’t see what that is supposed to build when our players are asked to do things they don’t seem confident in doing and keep doing mistakes is not really going to increase their confidence.
Unless we do get an experienced CB to act more as a leader and a goalkeeper that is actually good with his feet under pressure, we’ll keep seeing those mistakes over and over again. Some games this works and we play well but I find this PSG tie exposing our problems with this style way too much. We need a manager that can be pragmatic instead of focused on one way of playing.
I don’t have high hopes for the rest of the season. Hopefully the squad and Rosenior put a sock in my mouth.
lampsy87 on
Rosenior is less interested in xG, he’s the Guru of xV (expected Vibes).
Critical_Virus_9341 on
xG merchants and Clownlake bots will use this to justify our current mediocrity.
Prepare for the PR hit pieces.
reinvented-libero on
XG is a bullshit statistic that is extremely misunderstood by the average fan. These are completely different numbers compared to what was posted yesterday right after the match, too. PSG didn’t legitimately over perform their xG by 6 goals; I have no clue how someone can justify that metric.
It’s not nearly as accurate as many people think it is; there’s a lot of nuance to it. The distinctions between the different parties measuring it already makes it unreliable, not to mention the different data pools referenced against and the specific competition being explored. There is too much variety in the datapoints, too much reliance on human data annotators, and not enough consideration for a variety of other notable variables. It’s a semi-measured guesstimate that shouldn’t be taken as seriously as it is.
You can derive value from xG in a very small selection of use cases + when combined with other stats. Otherwise it is massively misleading and doesn’t provide very much valuable insights at all, especially on its own.
BlueThunder92 on
defensive frailty always leads to this kind of result. do not kid yourselves thinking this means we were unlucky to not go through
Pumakings on
This is called incompetence
MNBlues on
I’m so sick of xg. Overall we played well enough prior to Jorgensen loosing us the game in the first leg. Second leg just simply outplayed
J1M3N7 on
And we didn’t even score 3 😭
spectralblade352 on
Lmao this tweet will go down in history.
Surely no other team lost by such a margin given their xG lol.
Exflop on
I’ve never understood the creaming that people do for xG. These “stats” are exactly why people the sporting directors of think we’re better than we are. The team lost 8-2 simple as that.
abhishekjc on
People are overreacting about Rosenior here. This game was an outlier and you can’t use it to analyse much.
![[The xG Philosophy] On aggregate: Chelsea (2.88) 2-8 (2.23) PSG](https://www.eucup.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/03/nnx3bblxztpg1-1024x808.png "[The xG Philosophy] On aggregate: Chelsea (2.88) 2-8 (2.23) PSG")
36 Comments
The over performance of PSG goal scoring against us due to terrible defending and goalkeeping makes for such an insane statistical outlier
Should be enough for anyone who had the misfortune of watching both ties to never pay any attention to this ridiculous measurement from here on.
They had their shooting boots on for sure but xG is still so misleading here. They cut us apart plenty of times and we gave them the space in and around the box to shot. A goal like Vitinha’s as well would be considered low xG but Jorgensen gave the ball away and then was way off his line so you can’t say they got lucky.
I mean they have some of the world’s best attackers in their team, including the current ballon d’or holder. You’d expect players of that calibre to overperfrom the average. But yeah, xG is misleading here. They opened us up time and time again.
Great stuff who have we got in the quarter finals?
xG doesn’t show how easily PSG got through us. The eye test does.
This should be cited every time one of those xG-merchants tries to tell you this stat matters.
No one with eyes would conclude Chelsea outperformed PSG in either leg of this tie.
I actually think this is more fair than everyone is saying. We had so many chances bottled. They took their chances at a world class level and converted them at a crazy clip. A huge difference in finishing combined with awful goal keeping was way more the story than anything else.
With that being said I think the moral hit alone means you have to move on from Liam if he drops points vs Everton
More proof that xg means fuck all when it comes to getting a result. We’ve known this since Potter was our manager. High xg with nothing to show for it
We were an excellent team over two legs but they’re just better. This is not the same hungover team from the club World Cup, we came against a speeding train and got run over.
Reminds me of 19/20, we got beaten worse by Bayern but it was very clearly obvious we had a good team on our hands, we just needed to strengthen one more time before we can win the champions league with that same core.
I say you guys just stop stressing over the small stuff (like getting beaten by the best team on the planet) and just be excited for this run of games coming up
Our backline is a fucking shambles
This just shows the great flaws in xG. Doesn’t tell the tale of the tie at all.
It’s almost like they have clinical attackers and we have piss poor defenders and goalkeepers
Embarrassing but funny.
Can we get an AFCON email over here so the right team is credited for the win?
These don’t mean anything. Not a single thing
Guys , were in trouble. I knew we were screwed from the first kick of the ball deep to Sanchez. The goalkeepers and defence have got to go. Maybe keep cucurella but that’s it.
Do we really care about xG when the aggregate loss is 8-2???
Astonishing
Who gives a shit, we got our ass handed and the root of the problem goes high uk the ladder with some of our best players likely to leave . Arsenal winning the league and maybe the UCL.
What do I have to be positive about as a chelsea fan? Fuck blueco.
PSG produced some incredible finishes, and if you look at their post-shot xG, they only slightly overperformed. We gave them so much time to get a shot off at the edge of the box, and players of their quality will punish you for that.
Bradley Barcola is genuinely a terrible finisher and he scored two absolute bangers against us…should say it all lol
I’ll never understand why we give attackers so much space in the box. They really punished us for that and called our bluff. We are lucky to not go against such an elite attack every week because the holes in our defense would be exposed constantly. We are lower-mid table in terms of defensive quality.
I hate seeing xG statistics. Just feels like such a nothing burger
Honestly, the style of football we’re trying to play is just not the correct play style for the squad we currently have. We keep trying to play out from the back and we keep conceding because of it. I can’t see what that is supposed to build when our players are asked to do things they don’t seem confident in doing and keep doing mistakes is not really going to increase their confidence.
Unless we do get an experienced CB to act more as a leader and a goalkeeper that is actually good with his feet under pressure, we’ll keep seeing those mistakes over and over again. Some games this works and we play well but I find this PSG tie exposing our problems with this style way too much. We need a manager that can be pragmatic instead of focused on one way of playing.
I don’t have high hopes for the rest of the season. Hopefully the squad and Rosenior put a sock in my mouth.
Rosenior is less interested in xG, he’s the Guru of xV (expected Vibes).
xG merchants and Clownlake bots will use this to justify our current mediocrity.
Prepare for the PR hit pieces.
XG is a bullshit statistic that is extremely misunderstood by the average fan. These are completely different numbers compared to what was posted yesterday right after the match, too. PSG didn’t legitimately over perform their xG by 6 goals; I have no clue how someone can justify that metric.
It’s not nearly as accurate as many people think it is; there’s a lot of nuance to it. The distinctions between the different parties measuring it already makes it unreliable, not to mention the different data pools referenced against and the specific competition being explored. There is too much variety in the datapoints, too much reliance on human data annotators, and not enough consideration for a variety of other notable variables. It’s a semi-measured guesstimate that shouldn’t be taken as seriously as it is.
You can derive value from xG in a very small selection of use cases + when combined with other stats. Otherwise it is massively misleading and doesn’t provide very much valuable insights at all, especially on its own.
defensive frailty always leads to this kind of result. do not kid yourselves thinking this means we were unlucky to not go through
This is called incompetence
I’m so sick of xg. Overall we played well enough prior to Jorgensen loosing us the game in the first leg. Second leg just simply outplayed
And we didn’t even score 3 😭
Lmao this tweet will go down in history.
Surely no other team lost by such a margin given their xG lol.
I’ve never understood the creaming that people do for xG. These “stats” are exactly why people the sporting directors of think we’re better than we are. The team lost 8-2 simple as that.
People are overreacting about Rosenior here. This game was an outlier and you can’t use it to analyse much.
Chelsea’s defending has me like this recently:
Just embarrassingly bad.