Most season comparisons look at matchday vs matchday, or same date last year. The problem is the calendar creates noise. A team can look great having avoided all the tough away fixtures.
So I created the Equivalent Fixture Model and the concept of par for football leagues. Every game this season is compared to the exact same fixture last season, same teams, same stadium. That's your par. Beat it, you're having a better season. Fall below it, worse.
If every team finishes on par, the final table looks like this:
- Manchester City — 84 pts
- Arsenal — 82 pts
- Aston Villa — 68 pts
- Liverpool — 65 pts
—
- Tottenham — 35 pts (relegated)
- Wolves — 26 pts (relegated)
- Burnley — 22 pts (relegated)
The most interesting finding isn't the top. It's Spurs, who are -15 against par.
They weren't good last season, and they're doing even worse against that same standard.
Full methodology and PAR table by club here: https://open.substack.com/pub/seriousfans/p/premier-league-equivalent-fixture?r=7mer2s&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=web&showWelcomeOnShare=true
by SeriousFans
17 Comments
I reject this in the name of Harry Kane
Does this projection account for bottling?
This is a pretty decent metric to throw into the equation tbh. Gotta say at this point I’d be happy with fourth as long as champions league keeps going well.
Should have kept ange mate
This is cool.
This is more meaningless than normal prediction tables.
Some teams have improved, some have weakened, many players and managers have changed.
Some teams are in Europe this season with a harder schedule than last season, like Newcastle.
Some teams had big injuries last season. Some have big injuries this season. Form goes up and down.
Past results don’t affect new results.
Bruh. Im sure its smart math but what does this season has to do with last seasons results?
Its not telling us anything about this season
And how accurate is this model if you apply it historically? How good an indicator is “what the team did the previous season” of “what the team did in that season” and how much variation is there?
My guess is that it’ll be somewhat good for the top two or three teams and then we’ll see more and more variance as we get to the bottom.
There is always people using stats as copium … just accept it
Nice to know someone thinks Fulham are going to win on Sunday!
arsenal bottling + spurs relegated… dare I even dream?
Counter point – there are 22 men on the field, the ball is round, and anything can happen any game week. These kind of models/stats are fun, but generally useless.
I wholeheartedly approve of this, sorry Spurs
While in one way it’s quite interesting, it’s flawed in others. Last season was Tottenham’s worst league showing for years, but the Europa League win made it one of the best, overall.
If a team plays turgid football which the fans hate and they’re generally unhappy, and the end on 60 points, then the following season plays more attractive football which the fans are happier with but end on 55 points have they done “worse” overall? The fans don’t think so.
It can’t take into account general “vibes” if you like.
This assumes form stays consistent, when we all know it can be up and down several times over the course of a campaign. The games already played obviously take this into account, but there is no way to predict what will happen in the future — injuries to key players especially, for example.
I get the logic behind it, and yes it’s probably a bit more indicative than just comparing amount of points at this stage of the season to the amount of points at the equivalent stage last year. As it states, you may have easier or more difficult games coming up.
Like all stats it has to be taken into context.
Obviously it doesn’t account for form, new players, new managers, injuries, xG or any other stat, but it isn’t saying it is.
It’s useful to say are we performing better or worse on average than last year. And that’s about it.
I’d take Liverpool finishing top 4 so we can play UCL but I do believe it is unfortunately unlikely.