Here’s why Tammy makes sense

This is a three part argument. Ability, opportunity, and trajectory.

1) Proven striking ability. Tammy Abraham's career scoring rate is 0.39 goals per game. That puts him in the same bracket, but slightly better than, Gabriel Jesus, Darwin Nunez, and Ollie Watkins.

2) Opportunity. His recent record and serious ACL have seriously depressed his value and many doubt if he can do it. This means we could, in a very concrete sense indeed, actually afford him. And crucially:

3) Trajectory. The data suggests he has indeed returned to full efficiency. Look at the chart to see the uptick this year: a return to his career average level, with goals coming not just in the Super Lig, but also Europe. There is every chance the recent blip was just that, a blip.

In conclusion, this is a very sensible January signing. If he is anywhere near, it's a bargain. If he has in fact returned to his career average levels, it will be an absolute steal. Players of Tammy's career output would normally cost 50-80m and command huge wages, ie, would simply be unobtainable for us.

Not even to mention that Emery has wanted him for years as a hypothetical good fit for the system and is likely to squeeze gold out of him, nor that he will feel good about playing here again and have massive backing from the stands. Nor that he might even be thinking about forcing his way into the world cup squad.

I've convinced myself lads