Liverpool and Arsenal struggle to break down low blocks, Aston Villa and Man Utd most effective – Between the Lines
by Dangerous_Tip_4985
Liverpool and Arsenal struggle to break down low blocks, Aston Villa and Man Utd most effective – Between the Lines
by Dangerous_Tip_4985
11 Comments
Good to see it getting talked about.
Those long range Bangers weren’t luck – they were all part of a plan to hurt teams who sat deep to stop our dangerous runs in behind.
We are massive
We used to suck at this, it’s refreshing that we’ve adapted (although not surprising based on the skill of our manager).
That said, whilst “twat in a worldie from 25 yards over all their heads” is absolutely a solution to a low block, I’m not sure whether it counts as “breaking it down”. More just rendering it irrelevant.
Just another tick in a box for emery. Wasn’t that long ago that we were struggling to break them down as we came up against them more often as teams got more weary of us. This is good to hear. He’ll of a manger we have 👌
We don’t break them down though – we blast 30 yard thunderbastards straight through them
*”and if we can’t break them down, just tonk it from outside the box lads”*
from the Unai Emery Masterclass Sessions, September 2025 (probably)
Man delivers many tools for many different purposes.. Amen Mr Emery 💜🩵
Amazing it’s take them this long to get the conclusion.
When we were failing to score in the first 5, commentators were saying “teams know how to set up against Villa”, that was clear. Congestion the middle of the park and sit deep in defence.
Our plan was to pass into the box in the area in front of the goal for easier chances or (dare I say it) high xG. That’s all xG is. If you are six yards out you have a higher probability of scoring than if you were 20. No shit.
Though a lot of people see to take that as, if you xG is low you 1. Shouldn’t score from that range. 2. Shouldn’t attempt to score from that range. 3. It’s all luck.
It’s calculated. If a team wants to squeeze the space in the box, you have to work with what you have. Lots of space in behind? Work some nice passing into the box for a tap in. Other team doesn’t want to give you an inch in the box? Shoot from just outside.
This is the trade of, the worst thing Unai could have done was be dogmatic in his view that we should never ever shoot from distance. He had to adapt, and he did.
I played football to a level (not that good at all, no where near pro). You give me the ball I can strike it well enough that if there are no defenders I can hit the target with a high percentage. Not top bins but.. I’m shit.
We are talking pro level, top level pros at that. You give them time and space 20 yards out, they will hit the target, defenders may get in the way but if they can pick their spot they will hit the target regularly.
Because the historic xG stats say few goal are scored from there it doesn’t:
1. Take any account of the players ability and skill.
2. The model basically says that outside of the box your xG is so low that were you to move 10 yards back (20 to 30) it would probably only drop by 0.1-0.15. If you are in the box it jumps up wildly.
3. The state of play, snap shots from distance when under pressure etc have less chance of going in.
If you are passing it around an the opposition team are all in the box, you have time and space under limited pressure to pick a spot. Give top level players 2 or 3 chances a game one is going to be a decent effort with a chance of going in..
*breath*
Sorry I went off on one there. In summary, we try to vary our game up to beat low blocks because they were so effective against us in the first 5 games
The data used really doesn’t tell you anything..
Well, maybe that since the beginning of LAST season Villa are the best, by far, at beating a low block
Not sure if anyone has drawn the parallel to Ice Hockey, a sport where where teams will work shooting opportunities from range as part of the game plan. The way i see it, this is what Villa have been doing, working quality shooting opportunities rather than just ‘having a dig’. This year the Villa shooter has had time and space when they shoot because its part of the plan.
Last year it wasn’t like that – it was just Jhon Duran had a golden shovel.
Trigger warning: I’m going to mention xG 😂 just take it as ‘Chance Quality’. Representative image.
https://preview.redd.it/ubnk1dpco3gg1.png?width=1941&format=png&auto=webp&s=2438402dd7af330cb26e6e5e7b705b3a26db3f85
All managers with their analytics teams now will be aware of the best zones on a pitch. On attack – teams will want to progress the ball into the orange zone for example, for a better quality chance on goal. Whilst the defending team will use a low block to stifle and restrict territory (to use a rugby term)
If the defense is well organized and tight, then you may aswell attempt from the light green section where statistically, the absolute value difference is small. But the real benefit is where defenders are drawn into a press to close down and block these attempts, creating more valuable space in behind and in between the lines.
xG by it’s nature is an average of averages. And so if you have outliers (players of higher-than-average quality), then they should outperform in these light-green areas.