I tend to have a look at opta after every matchweek but having seen our consecutive wins, are they really continuing to put us at 80%+ to go down? for some reason, in my head it's always been a 50/50.
leeds play arsenal this week and if we get 3 points and they get none it becomes one result between us only.
forest play palace and then leeds so AT LEAST one of our rivals will drop points each of the next 2 gameweeks. We've got a very winnable Burnley fixture coming up in that time too so that is a clear opportunity to cut the gap.
palace have lost Wharton due to suspension for the next game as well and on track to losing mateta so I don't see them picking up points easily amidst this Glasner crash out.
and frankly – on paper only (major caveat) – I'd say we have a better squad than anyone else in that bottom 7 barring maybe spurs and forest. there's clearly belief there – I saw it on Saturday.
I guess my TLDR question is – do you agree with the opta predictions and if you had to put forward a % chance of going down what would it be?
by Lanziniiii
11 Comments
Realistic imo. Still more likely to go down than stay up but all they can do is keep getting points and see how it plays out. The real killer was the Forest game.
Palace fan. This came up on my feed. 1.98% chance of getting relegated is way off for us at the moment. Should be x10 higher.
> they really continuing to put us at 80%+ to go down? for some reason, in my head it’s always been a 50/50.
You are correct. Either we stay up or we don’t, therefore 50/50
It’s just stats. Let’s say we win 3 more games in 5 and we are way better
These things try and predict the future based on the past. We’ve won five games out of 23 and need to first close a five point gap and then grow a gap to stay up. Whatever model they’re using isn’t going to account for the variables you’ve discussed, it’s just going to determine that those teams are more likely than us to pick up points so the gap will more likely than not be maintained.
FWIW I think giving us a 1/5 chance of staying up now based on the year so far is about right. If we keep going as we are, that will change.
Palace have Wolves, Burnley, Brighton and Forest as the next 4 fixtures- if they struggle… then they have Tottenham, Leeds, Man City, Newcastle then us.
Comes down to the next 4 games for palace, 3 wins and they are safe, losses and they are in real trouble. 👿
I’d say despite the recent uptick in form, it’s pretty accurate. Whilst we know we’re looking and playing better, the trouble with trying to contextualise stats like this is that it could all change in a few weeks, let alone from one match week to another. We’ve been in the position of Leeds before, and then finished the season comfortably mid-table – we’ve been in the position of Sunderland before and needed points in the final few games of the season to stay up. Only thing we can do is try to get as many points on the board as possible, although the most West Ham way possible would be to break our points tally from 2002–03 and still go down
70-80%
Just think how much higher that would have been without the recent wins. Just got to keep holding on in there any hope teams above slip up and get dragged into it. Not much else we can do at this point but concentrate on getting points on the board and making others sweat.
I think we will get more points in the last 16matches than palace & Leeds. My only hesitancy is that we started so poorly have we got too much ground to make up
Just got to win our games
Hopefully UTD buy Wharton in the transfer window and mateta goes to Juve
It’s taken 23 games to get 20 points. We need to get another 5 just to get out of the relegation zone, but that’s assuming the teams above don’t win a game, so we’ll need more. We’ll need a shock result for it to happen as well as winning every winnable game. Beat Chelsea next week and it’s game on, suddenly drag a load of teams above us in to it.