Hi All. Towards the end of last year, when every match seemed to sway the odds of Champions/Europa/Conference League quite a bit, I built a model for myself to understand how different matches might impact our odds. It's an amateur model for sure (I'm not a professional bettor or anything), but it's accurate enough that I enjoyed playing with it. For those who read my posts last year, I intended to make a website over the off-season that anybody can come in and make different results for any matches to see how it impacted their team's odds, although admittedly I never got around to that. Still, I saw some discussion today about whether Kamara being out for a long time would be "catastrophic", so I fired it up and updated it for the current season to try to quantify it. Again, I am not a pro, so it's only directionally accurate. That being said, if you went to the extreme and said that we will win the next 5 EPL matches if we have Kamara, but lose the next 5 without him, this is what I got (also, just regardless of Kamara, I think it's interesting to think about how the odds can change over a 5 game stretch).
I've also added current odds, and what the odds were pre-season, just because I found them to be interesting.
Anyway, I hope somebody else finds it interesting. If not, no worries!
by ShortPretzel
2 Comments
Wait till they realise how important Kamara is and those odds would have plummeted.
10 point gap is a 10 point gap. Top 5 at over 90% is almost there. Let’s take that home