[NOS] Defensive collapse shows: Ajax craves structure

Ajax is in a state of crisis. From the boardroom to the dressing room: there's unrest at every level of the Amsterdam club, including in the stands. Last week, supporters could be heard calling for the dismissal of head coach John Heitinga.

These chants were heard during the thrashing Ajax received in the Champions League against Chelsea (5-1). In the Eredivisie, Ajax has won only one of its last four matches.

Statements from Ajax players and an analysis of the statistics show one thing: Ajax is hungry for structure.

Heitinga juggles lineups

A telling statistic to start with: Heitinga has made 27 changes to his starting lineup in the Eredivisie alone, compared to the previous match. That's the highest number of any manager in the Eredivisie and therefore more than other top clubs like Feyenoord (22) and PSV (16).

It illustrates that the Ajax manager is still searching for his ideal lineup, something goalkeeper Remco Pasveer openly expressed after the Champions League match at Chelsea. "In Jordan Henderson, we still had a clear leader last year, who set things up well," said Pasveer. "You're missing the direction now."

With this, Pasveer exposed a problem that has long been highlighted by analysts and supporters: Ajax regularly appears disorganized and rudderless, which has resulted in a significant number of goals conceded.

Ajax has already conceded 23 goals in the first twelve official matches of the season. In the entire club's history, the Amsterdam side has only conceded so many goals at this point in a season three times, including in the 2023/24 season under Maurice Steijn (who conceded 24 goals in 12 matches).

This is a stark contrast to Francesco Farioli's Ajax of the previous season, which was praised for its rock-solid defense and conceded the fewest goals of all Eredivisie teams. Today's Ajax even has a negative goal difference in official matches (-5).

Defensive figures plummet

A look at the underlying figures shows that Ajax's offensive performance is slightly lower than last season, but these are minor differences. For example, last year Ajax created an average of 1.86 Expected Goals (a statistic that assesses the quality of chances) per match, while this figure is now 1.68.

The major difference lies in the defensive statistics. Figures from data agency Opta show that Ajax concedes many more shots and therefore concedes more Expected Goals and actual goals.

Ajax's defensive performance per match

Last season
Shots conceded: 8.1
Expected goals conceded: 0.62
Goals conceded: 0.5

Current season
Shots conceded: 12.9
Expected goals conceded: 1.57
Goals conceded: 1.9

The structure Ajax lacks translates into goals conceded on the pitch. Yet, the Amsterdam side's real problems seem to run deeper than just a leaky defense.

For example, technical director Alex Kroes has linked his fate to head coach Heitinga, whose coaching staff has been temporarily reinforced by Fred Grim. At the same time, it is alleged that Kroes himself has also been assigned an "advisor" to improve Ajax's transfer policy.

It hasn't yet brought the desired calm. Outgoing Supervisory Board member Danny Blind, for example, felt compelled on Friday to respond to the "nonsense" and "malicious fabrications" he had read in the media. The Supervisory Board had, in fact, been critical of Heitinga's appointment, Blind emphasized.

Thus, the storm continues at Ajax, a club where things are rarely calm anyway, and it is highly questionable whether a victory over FC Twente today can restore calm. At the same time, a defeat against Twente could well prove to be the fuse that ignited the Amsterdam powder keg.