An 88% chance of relegation with just 9 games of the season gone is ridiculously harsh imo.
Regardless of it being Cardiff, I don’t think any team can be given those sort of odds this early unless they’ve been deducted points.
Comprehensive_Cow_13 on
Seems VERY early to be that certain. Still, sucks to be Cardiff, and looks like joint Yorkshire humiliation in the prem next year. Balls.
TEWfan1 on
Sunderland will not get promoted FFS.
szcesTHRPS on
I will take 14th every day of the week.
rolando_ugolini on
Boro with the biggest chance of finishing seventh.
Hello darkness my old friend.
WinstungChurchill on
Well the computer sure knows bang average when it sees it.
Tuscan5 on
Bottom three might as well give up on those stats!
AnonymousWebDummy on
Lmao so it basically the supercomputer looked at us and said “who knows mate?” and then shrugged it’s shoulders and fucked off
MaverickGooseman on
So you’re saying there’s a chance?
Jeoh on
0.1% chance to finish first, I’ll take those odds.
sinisterpuppy88 on
Here we go, another season proving the “super computer” wrong.
Gaping_Whole_ on
Please no. I’d rather miss the playoffs altogether if we don’t go up automatically
Ben0ut on
The computer just don’t know what the fuck to do with Sunderland
s0ngsforthedeaf on
Amazing Supercomouters know *exactly* how good a team is going to be for the rest of the season, isn’t it?
TSMKFail on
No 33% 11th 12th 13th for Bristol and Preston. Immediately invalidated >:[
Cautious-Quit5128 on
Thanks for guaranteeing us another season in the championship, Super Computer!
IgnorantLobster on
Sigh
jaydude1992 on
So we have an 18.5% chance of avoiding relegation? Eh, I guess it could be worse…
MackyMac1 on
Swansea city: According to this chart we can be anything we want to be.
madeupofthesewords on
I’ve love to see their prediction from this time last year.
adkenna on
I guess the super computer isn’t on board with HMS Piss the League.
Can’t blame it to be fair I’m still surprised we are still at the helm.
Hindsyy on
What the
Aromatic_Pea2425 on
What is happening at Luton to make the computer think this? Sure they’ve had a rough start but I hardly think they’re going down again…
EyePiece108 on
*Welp.*
I think that ‘Supercomputer’ needs a memory upgrade. Or perhaps our form needs an upgrade.
angloexcellence on
11% chance of going down with our squad. Its completely unacceptable that it should arguably be higher than that too
SoggyMattress2 on
Just in case anyone is curious on what these supercomputers are or how they work, they’re no more than a gimmick essentially. How many of these predictions have you ever seen come true? If they did, they’d be heavily published so the dev team behind them could sell the model.
The “supercomputer” is just an algorithm. It looks at results this season, historical results, underlying stats like xG and xGA etc, player statistics, team form, fixture difficulty and a bunch of other stuff.
It then uses an ELO rating (like the system chess uses to rank players) to determine head to head strength. It then makes predictions for an entire season, and simulates it tens of thousands of times to try and eliminate as much variance as possible.
Like other people have pointed out, it lacks context. For example, it has Cardiff with a 60% chance to go down in 24th. Anyone who can look at our squad knows we’ll be nowhere near 24th come the end of the season. It cannot take new managers or signings into account, or system changes, or injuries and it cannot subjectively look at the strength of the players in a team.
Opta – the company behind this “supercomputer” raves about its accuracy but its mostly bollocks, the algorithm pretty accurately predicts the top 4 every season but that’s because its really easy to do and any 6 year old can do the same.
always-indifferent on
And why exactly can’t we be 7th?! 👀
RatherEnglish on
STOP THE COUNT
JordanCCFC17 on
What do you mean no premier league football for us next season 😭
JasonM2244 on
The super computer thinks we’re capable of finishing anywhere from 1st to 21st? At least we’re staying up then
Dychetoseeyou on
We are (16.1% likely to finish) top of the league,
Say, we are (16.1% likely to finish) top of the league!
JakeNev on
League 1 is more fun… right
RizlaSmyzla on
Absolutely bizarre that we’re so high considering the amount of long term first 11 injuries we have
Joshgg13 on
Pre-injuries – fair enough, I could see why we were favourites. But now? I know we’re not the only team with injuries but Ampadu and Gruev are our two starting DMs and they’re both out for months. We already have the smallest squad in the league; one more injury in certain positions could legitimately see us starting players that wouldn’t ordinarily make the match day squad
36 Comments
Oh look we’re 18th again…
An 88% chance of relegation with just 9 games of the season gone is ridiculously harsh imo.
Regardless of it being Cardiff, I don’t think any team can be given those sort of odds this early unless they’ve been deducted points.
Seems VERY early to be that certain. Still, sucks to be Cardiff, and looks like joint Yorkshire humiliation in the prem next year. Balls.
Sunderland will not get promoted FFS.
I will take 14th every day of the week.
Boro with the biggest chance of finishing seventh.
Hello darkness my old friend.
Well the computer sure knows bang average when it sees it.
Bottom three might as well give up on those stats!
Lmao so it basically the supercomputer looked at us and said “who knows mate?” and then shrugged it’s shoulders and fucked off
So you’re saying there’s a chance?
0.1% chance to finish first, I’ll take those odds.
Here we go, another season proving the “super computer” wrong.
Please no. I’d rather miss the playoffs altogether if we don’t go up automatically
The computer just don’t know what the fuck to do with Sunderland
Amazing Supercomouters know *exactly* how good a team is going to be for the rest of the season, isn’t it?
No 33% 11th 12th 13th for Bristol and Preston. Immediately invalidated >:[
Thanks for guaranteeing us another season in the championship, Super Computer!
Sigh
So we have an 18.5% chance of avoiding relegation? Eh, I guess it could be worse…
Swansea city: According to this chart we can be anything we want to be.
I’ve love to see their prediction from this time last year.
I guess the super computer isn’t on board with HMS Piss the League.
Can’t blame it to be fair I’m still surprised we are still at the helm.
What the
What is happening at Luton to make the computer think this? Sure they’ve had a rough start but I hardly think they’re going down again…
*Welp.*
I think that ‘Supercomputer’ needs a memory upgrade. Or perhaps our form needs an upgrade.
11% chance of going down with our squad. Its completely unacceptable that it should arguably be higher than that too
Just in case anyone is curious on what these supercomputers are or how they work, they’re no more than a gimmick essentially. How many of these predictions have you ever seen come true? If they did, they’d be heavily published so the dev team behind them could sell the model.
The “supercomputer” is just an algorithm. It looks at results this season, historical results, underlying stats like xG and xGA etc, player statistics, team form, fixture difficulty and a bunch of other stuff.
It then uses an ELO rating (like the system chess uses to rank players) to determine head to head strength. It then makes predictions for an entire season, and simulates it tens of thousands of times to try and eliminate as much variance as possible.
Like other people have pointed out, it lacks context. For example, it has Cardiff with a 60% chance to go down in 24th. Anyone who can look at our squad knows we’ll be nowhere near 24th come the end of the season. It cannot take new managers or signings into account, or system changes, or injuries and it cannot subjectively look at the strength of the players in a team.
Opta – the company behind this “supercomputer” raves about its accuracy but its mostly bollocks, the algorithm pretty accurately predicts the top 4 every season but that’s because its really easy to do and any 6 year old can do the same.
And why exactly can’t we be 7th?! 👀
STOP THE COUNT
What do you mean no premier league football for us next season 😭
The super computer thinks we’re capable of finishing anywhere from 1st to 21st? At least we’re staying up then
We are (16.1% likely to finish) top of the league,
Say, we are (16.1% likely to finish) top of the league!
League 1 is more fun… right
Absolutely bizarre that we’re so high considering the amount of long term first 11 injuries we have
Pre-injuries – fair enough, I could see why we were favourites. But now? I know we’re not the only team with injuries but Ampadu and Gruev are our two starting DMs and they’re both out for months. We already have the smallest squad in the league; one more injury in certain positions could legitimately see us starting players that wouldn’t ordinarily make the match day squad
supercomputer hasnt a clue has it?