Arsenal is predicted to be a 1.5-goal home favorite against Fulham.
Arsenal is undefeated in its last 18 EPL night matches following a league win.
My Arsenal vs Fulham prediction is Fulham Under 0.5 Goals (+100).
Arsenal will look to increase its cushion atop the league on Saturday against Fulham.
The Premier League leaders won 1-0 at home against Newcastle over the weekend. Currently, Arsenal holds a three-point advantage over Manchester City, having played an extra fixture.
Fulham began Matchday 34 with a 1-0 home win over Aston Villa. Currently, Fulham sits only two points from sixth with four matches left to play.
Check out the Premier League odds and my Arsenal vs Fulham prediction.
Arsenal vs Fulham: Premier League Odds
Fulham vs Arsenal: Prediction
Based on Fulham’s lacking road attacking metrics and Arsenal’s strong defensive record, my Arsenal vs Fulham prediction is Fulham Under 0.5 Goals (+100).
Over 0.5 @ -140
Under 0.5 @ +100
Arsenal left me very unimpressed as heavy home favorites against Newcastle. The encouraging sign is that the defense continued to post outstanding metrics.
Newcastle created only 0.9 expected goals at the Emirates. Eddie Howe’s side simultaneously created 0.1 post-shot expected goals against the league’s top defense.
For the season, Newcastle offers a greater attacking threat compared to Fulham. As it stands, Newcastle ranks ninth in EPL expected goals vs. 14th for Fulham.
Most of Fulham’s attacking success came at home, too. Marco Silva’s side averaged 1.5 xG per 90 at home against 1.1 on the road.
Fulham produced the latter figure without closing as a big underdog many times. Only once this season has Silva’s squad closed north of +500 on the three-way moneyline.
That came at Manchester City. Fulham generated 1.5 xG but only 0.45 post-shot xG against City.
When Fulham played Arsenal at Craven Cottage, the Irons created a mere 0.4 xG. The attack also failed to put a shot on target against the league’s best defense.
Despite some favorable lines, Fulham stayed under this benchmark in three straight road matches. For the season, it’s seven unders in 17 matches.
Meanwhile, Arsenal has kept opponents under this benchmark nine times in 17 home fixtures. Four of the eight failures came against the league’s six-best attacks.
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