Burnley are running out of time if they’re to pull off a Premier League great escape and this clash at home to Brighton and Hove Albion is a must-win if they’re to stand any chance of survival.
The Clarets sit 10 points behind fourth-bottom Tottenham Hotspur with only seven games left so it’s easy to see why they’re 1/200 with most firms to go down.
Scott Parker’s side haven’t won any of their games since a shock home loss to Mansfield in the FA Cup back in mid-February.
And it’s hard to hold out much hope for them against a Seagulls side who were flying heading into the international break.
A run of four wins in five Premier League games has boosted Brighton’s hopes of qualifying for Europe.
Fabian Hurzeler’s side seem to have found their mojo again and they will view this game as a great chance to get three more points on the board.
How the bookies view it: Brighton hot favourites
Given the contrasting form of both sides, it’s no surprise to see Brighton and Hove Albion as favourites at a best 3/4 with William Hill. Burnley are as big as 18/5 with Betfred while the draw pays 3/1 at Bet365.
Recent head to head: Seagulls out to do the double
Brighton eased to a 2-0 home win when these sides faced off earlier this season and they’ve lost just one of the last nine meetings. But five of those matches have ended in draws.
Players to watch: Mitoma back in business
Kaoru Mitoma should be close to full fitness for Brighton and Hove Albion after starring for Japan in their friendly win over England. The winger is a decent 7/5 with Paddy Power to score or assist here.
Zian Flemming should offer the biggest threat for Burnley after scoring in three of his last four outings. The Dutchman is 9/5 at Paddy Power to score or set one up.
Backed a player to find the net? Check our Goalscorer Betting guide to see how the markets work and where to find value.
Probable line-ups
Burnley still have a host of injury issues with Connor Roberts, Jordan Beyer, Zeki Amdouni, Josh Cullen, Mike Tresor, Axel Tuanzebe and Hannibal Mejbri either crocked or doubtful. Josh Laurent also misses out after his red card in the loss to Fulham.
Brighton have Lewis Dunk suspended while Adam Webster and Stefanos Tzimas remain in the treatment room.
Burnley: Dubravka, Walker, Hartman, Esteve, Humphreys, Flemming, Ward-Prowse, Ugochukwu, Florentino, Foster, Anthony.
Brighton and Hove Albion: Verbruggen, Boscagli, Van Hecke, Kadioglu, Wieffer, Hinshelwood, Baleba, Mitoma, Gross, Minteh, Welbeck.
🔍 X-pert tip from The Betting Desk
Don’t know your xG from your xP? We’ve got you covered with our data-led X-pert tip!
MFT’s X-pert tip: Brighton win
Burnley welcome Brighton on Saturday and the data points towards an away win.
Burnley’s recent profile is weak, averaging just 0.83 xG and conceding 2.02 xGA across the last eight games, alongside only 4.84 xPTS. They have also allowed 9.9 shots in the box and conceded 10 big chances, showing clear defensive issues.
Brighton arrive with stronger control. Across the last eight they post 1.10 xG and 1.24 xGA with 10.45 xPTS, outperforming Burnley across all key metrics. Burnley have not won a single home xG battle this season, while Brighton are far more competitive. The gap in both chance quality and control supports an away victory.
Anything else catch the eye?
Games at Turf Moor have generally been pretty entertaining of late, with BTTS and over 2.5 goals landing in seven of the last 10.
Both teams should be going for a win in this match so I’m combining those bets at 23/20 with Ladbrokes.
Burnley’s last three home games have also hit double figures for corners and backing over 9.5 flag kicks here pays a decent evens at Paddy Power.
Towering Brighton stopper Jan Paul Van Hecke is a threat from set-pieces and the Belgian appeals at 12/5 with Bet365 to have an effort on target.
Burnley vs Brighton and Hove Albion Betting Tips & Predictions
Kaoru Mitoma goal or assist
7/5
PaddyPower
Over 9.5 corners
Evens
PaddyPower
Jan Paul Van Hecke over 0.5 efforts on target
12/5
Bet365
Further Reading