Championship Betting Preview: Southampton vs Derby
Sixth-placed Southampton square off against eight-placed Derby at St. Mary’s, with kick-off set for 07:00 on Saturday 11 April, in a key clash in the race for the play-off places.
Saints Could Prove Too Strong
We’re confident in the chances of Southampton when they clash with Derby, with our selection appealing on the Full-Time Result market. Take the odds of -128 that the favourites claim a victory.
Both Sides Won Last Time Out
Southampton won last time out by a 5-1 scoreline. On the road against Wrexham at The Racecourse, they made it four wins on the spin. The South Coast team had nine shots on target and 46% possession, while Kuryu Matsuki was one of the five scorers that formed part of this goalfest.
Derby County secured a 2-0 home win over Stoke City at Pride Park in their previous game. John Eustace’s men had 53% possession and recorded three shots on goal, with Jaydon Banel and Carlton Morris on the scoresheet.
Head-to-Head Statistics
The last head-to-head saw home team Derby draw 1-1 with Southampton at Pride Park. Each of the past 3 matches involving these teams have seen a draw as the outcome.
Southampton – Last 10 League Games
8 wins and 2 draws, averaging 2.5 goals from 13.2 attempts and 6.1 shots on goal. Southampton have had 56.3% possession and 5.4 corners per match. On average, they have conceded 0.8 goals from 9.6 attempts and 3.1 shots on goal, while their opponents have earned 4.5 corners.
Top goalscorers Kuryu Matsuki and Cyle Larin have found the net 4 times, with Ross Stewart scoring 3. Leo Scienza is the leading assists maker with 4.
Derby County – Last 10 League Games
Derby have 6 victories and 4 defeats, with an average of 1.5 goals from 4.0 shots on goal and 12.6 attempts. The Rams have averaged 47.3% possession, 3.6 corners taken and 4.4 corners against, while conceding 1.2 goals from 3.8 shots on goal and 12.2 attempts.
Ben Brereton Diaz has recorded 4 goals, Rhian Brewster 3, with Sammie Szmodics and Matthew Clarke both managing 2. Look no further than Derry Murkin for the top assist maker (3) in the last 10 games.
Predicted & Confirmed Lineups
Southampton predicted lineup (4-2-3-1): Daniel Peretz (GK), James Bree, Taylor Harwood-Bellis, Jack Stephens, Ryan Manning, Flynn Downes, Shea Charles, Kuryu Matsuki, Finn Azaz, Samuel Edozie, Cyle Larin.
Derby predicted lineup (4-2-3-1): Richard O´Donnell (GK), Joe Ward, Dion Sanderson, Matt Clarke, Derry Murkin, David Ozoh, Lewis Travis, Ben Brereton Díaz, Bobby Clark, Jaydon Banel, Carlton Morris.
Southampton vs Derby Prediction & Betting Tips
Get the full betting picture for Southampton vs Derby, including our expert match prediction, likely scoreline, key corners pick, must-watch player props and a tailored bet builder ready to use.
Match Prediction
Southampton look like an attractive bet at -128 and we think they can win this Championship clash. We’ll place this wager with confidence and there’s plenty of juice in the available price.
The football predictions are generated after consulting the team news for both sides along with the form. We are also able to analyse the latest Championship stats which can suggest how the game might unfold.
Key Southampton vs Derby league stats:
Southampton have won 4 consecutive games.Southampton have won 8 of their last 10 games.Southampton have won 10 of their last 19 games at home.Derby have lost 4 of their last 5 games on the road.
Southampton to Win Probability
According to the best betting sites, our pick has a 56.2% chance of landing a return. However, our tipsters in-depth research has found that the actual probability is between 60-65%. It’s why we think it’s worth placing this wager.
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For those bettors who want to boost their odds for Southampton to secure a victory, why not combine this pick with some of the other available options in a Bet Builder.
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Our Match Prediction
Southampton To Win @ -128
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Published 13:28, 09 April 2026
Player Prop Picks
Cyle Larin (Southampton) has scored in his past two Championship matches The Anytime Goalscorer odds look really appealing based on the stats and we’ll take a chance on him at odds of +190.
Latest Cyle Larin Player Prop Odds
Goalscorer
Pick odds and lines correct at publication. Live market odds are updated regularly and may differ. T&Cs apply. 18+ (or legal age) | Gamble Responsibly.
Corners Prediction
Derby have had under 3.5 corners in seven straight away matches, while the last 5 Southampton home games have seen them concede an average of 4.40 corners. We’re backing Derby to fall short when it comes to Team Corners and this pick is on offer at -108.
League Games
Southampton
Total
9.90
5.40
4.50
Home
10.20
5.40
4.80
Away
10.20
5.30
4.90
Derby
Total
8.00
3.60
4.40
Home
9.10
5.10
4.00
Away
8.70
2.70
6.00
Latest Corner Odds
Total Corners
Southampton Corners
Derby Corners
Most Corners
Pick odds and lines correct at publication. Live market odds are updated regularly and may differ. T&Cs apply. 18+ (or legal age) | Gamble Responsibly.
Southampton vs Derby Odds
The odds and lines below are updated regularly and may differ from the prices shown in our picks, which are captured at the time of publication.
Southampton Have the Shortest Odds to Win
The favourites have a 57% likelihood of success according to the bookies, with Southampton chalked up at -133 to land a win in this Championship clash. Derby County are seen as the most unlikely winner at +335.
Stake is split between -0.5 and -1.0 when betting Southampton -0.75 at -105 on the Asian Handicap. Beating Derby by 2+ goals sees a full payout. Winning by one goal means a return on the former and a push on the latter.
For those expecting a high-scoring contest, Over 2.5 Goals is the shortest price. If you think that both sides will end up scoring, then the Both Teams to Score Yes option can be backed at -164.
If you head to the best football betting sites, you can take your pick when it comes to Championship matches. The hundreds of markets always ensure lots of choice.
Full-Time Result
Half-Time Result
Double Chance
Draw No Bet
Asian Handicap
Total Goals
Both Teams to Score
Leo Scienza is the First Goalscorer Favourite
There is +165 available that Leo Scienza finds the net at any stage. He is available at +450 to register the first goal which makes him favourite.
Player Goals
Leo Scienza (Southampton)
Carlton Morris (Derby)
Cyle Larin (Southampton)
Ross Cameron Stewart (Southampton)
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St. Mary’s
Southampton Proving Hard to Beat at Home
Southampton haven’t tasted defeat in eight consecutive matches at St. Mary’s. Tonda Eckert’s team have recorded seven victories, two draws and one defeat in the previous 10 home matches, netting an average of 1.50 goals per game and conceding 0.50.
Derby have collected five defeats, four wins and one draw in the previous 10 away matches, scoring an average of 1.50 goals per game and conceding 1.40.
The past meeting at St. Mary’s saw Derby defeat Southampton on penalties (2-2 AET).
Southampton Home Stats
7-2-1
2.00
1.50
0.50
3
7
4
6
Derby Away Stats
4-1-5
2.90
1.50
1.40
5
5
5
5
W-D-L = Wins-Draws-Losses
G = Avg. Goals
GF = Avg. Goals For
GA = Avg. Goals Against
O2.5 = Matches Over 2.5 Goals
U2.5 = Matches Under 2.5 Goals
B-Y = Matches BTTS Yes
B-No = Matches BTTS No
Southampton vs Derby Lineups & Team News
Always review the Southampton vs Derby team news before locking in your bets. We’ll deliver both predicted and confirmed lineups for the Championship as well as the latest injury reports.
Southampton Predicted Lineup 4-2-3-1
Derby Predicted Lineup 4-2-3-1
Southampton Predicted Lineup 4-2-3-1
41
Daniel Peretz
14
James Bree
6
T. Harwood-Bellis
5
Jack Stephens
3
Ryan Manning
4
Flynn Downes
24
Shea Charles
27
Kuryu Matsuki
10
Finn Azaz
23
Samuel Edozie
9
Cyle Larin
12
Richard O´Donnell
23
Joe Ward
28
Dion Sanderson
5
Matt Clarke
2
Derry Murkin
18
David Ozoh
27
Lewis Travis
25
Ben Brereton Díaz
42
Bobby Clark
34
Jaydon Banel
9
Carlton Morris
Derby Predicted Lineup 4-2-3-1
Previous Southampton Lineups
07 Apr
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Previous Derby Lineups
06 Apr
Championship
Derby
2-0
Stoke
03 Apr
Championship
Coventry
3-2
Derby
21 Mar
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Derby
1-0
Birmingham
16 Mar
Championship
Portsmouth
0-1
Derby
10 Mar
Championship
Millwall
1-0
Derby
07 Mar
Championship
Derby
2-1
Sheffield Wed
Expert Analysis by Richard Walker
English Football Analyst
About the Analyst
Our football previews are produced by a specialised team of analysts, former odds compilers and sports journalists. Picks are research-driven and reviewed for accuracy and editorial consistency under the oversight of our Football Editorial Betting Panel and Editor-in-Chief.
Championship Predictions Methodology
Our Championship analysis accounts for the league’s intense match schedule, squad rotation, lineup data and injury management, alongside recent form and odds movement. We use metrics like PPDA (pressing intensity), set-piece efficiency and expected assists (xA) to evaluate team performance, depth and sustainability across England’s second tier.
Full Methodology & Data Sources
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Transparency & Safety
This preview was last updated on Apr 10, 14:45 to reflect the latest team news, injury reports, predicted and confirmed lineups, advanced performance metrics and market movement.
All analysis is produced by professional analysts and reviewed by our Football Editorial Betting Panel for accuracy and consistency.
Historical performance for our main match predictions is tracked and updated regularly for transparency.
Important: Betting should be treated as entertainment and involves risk. Past results are not indicative of future performance. Only wager what you can afford to lose.
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