Welcome to week 32 of The Athletic’s Premier League predictions challenge, where we return after a three-week break to find things have changed significantly.
The subscribers have surged ahead thanks to a spectacular performance from the last gameweek’s guest reader.
There was an understandable sense of confusion in the comments section when other subscribers read that Elizabeth, a Newcastle United fan from San Francisco, had backed her team to lose 2-1 to Sunderland in the Tyne-Wear derby.
@cmjmarshall: Hold on. Elizabeth, a Newcastle United supporter, has not only failed to make the Tyne-Wear derby her game of the week, but she’s also predicted that Newcastle will get beaten at home. Not sure she’s quite got the hang of life as a North East football fan.
@Steve L: Came here to write exactly the same thing. In her defence, she is American.
Oof. Steady on, Steve.
But Sunderland did win 2-1 thanks to a stoppage-time goal from Brian Brobbey. Afterwards, Elizabeth returned to the comments section — which included a humble apology from @cmjmarshall — to say that she took “no pleasure in being correct about the result”.
Elizabeth was entitled to draw rather more satisfaction from another four successful predictions: victories for Everton, Aston Villa, and Nottingham Forest over Chelsea, West Ham United and Tottenham Hotspur respectively, and a 2-2 draw between Bournemouth and Manchester United. Including bonus points, that made for a remarkable 13-point haul in a weekend when, with only eight games played, the rest of us struggled.
Each week since the season began in August, four of us — a guest subscriber, six-year-old Wilfred, an algorithm and I — have been predicting the Premier League results with varying degrees of success.
We are awarding three points for a correct scoreline and one point for a correct result. We are also offering a bonus for any unique correct predictions, so, for example, Elizabeth got four points for both of those correct scores.
Thanks in part to my spectacular loss of form in recent months, it was already looking like a straight fight between the subscribers and Wilfred.
Now, after Elizabeth won 13 points last time out (to Wilfred’s one, my one, and the algorithm’s four), it looks like turning into a procession as we head into the final weeks of the season.
This week’s guest subscriber — with a hard act to follow — is George, a 33-year-old Manchester United fan from London. Good luck, George.
Our subscriber’s match of the weekWest Ham vs Wolves, Friday, 8pm UK/3pm ET
George says: “With the relegation battle closer than it has been in years, this is looking like a must-watch. If West Ham can secure the win, Tottenham Hotspur would drop into the relegation zone and would have to wait until Sunday for their chance to bounce back. The pressure would build quickly.”
West Ham 2-1 Wolves
Oli says: “It’s crunch time for West Ham. Of their seven remaining fixtures, this one, against a Wolves team resigned to relegation, looks their best chance of a vital win. They have spent almost the entire season in the drop zone, but victory tonight (Friday) would take them out until at least Sunday afternoon.
“There is a growing optimism among West Ham fans that they can survive at Tottenham’s expense, but an undoubted improvement since mid-January has still yielded just six points from their last six Premier League games. Maintaining that kind of trajectory could in theory be enough, depending on how others fare, but every West Ham fan regards this as a game they have to win.”
West Ham 2-0 Wolves
Oli’s other predictionsArsenal vs Bournemouth
Oli says: Time of Arsenal’s first goal in their past six games in all competitions: 89th minute, 89th minute, 36th minute, didn’t score, 68th minute, 91st minute. Even with what should be a commanding lead at the top of the Premier League, everything feels like it is on a knife-edge for Mikel Arteta’s team — precarious, tense, nerve-shredding. This, at home to a Bournemouth team who have drawn their last five, is the kind of game champions-in-waiting should relish. But the way Arsenal are performing, a very tight victory seems the most likely outcome before the acid test away to Manchester City next weekend.
Arsenal 2-1 Bournemouth
Brentford vs Everton
Oli says: Any discussion about the Premier League’s manager of the year should include Keith Andrews and David Moyes. Both have surpassed every expectation this season, as have Brentford’s Igor Thiago and Michael Kayode and Everton’s James Garner and James Tarkowski. A draw seems probable between two well-matched teams, but I’m inclined to climb off the fence and predict one of them will take a big step towards European qualification. I’ll go for an Everton win — and for that, I should probably apologise to their supporters, rather than Brentford’s.
Brentford 1-2 Everton
Burnley vs Brighton
Oli says: The approach that has served Brighton so well in recent years has been built around youth, but this season has underlined the value of experience. Lewis Dunk, 34, is their captain. Danny Welbeck, 35, has scored a career-high total of 12 Premier League goals. And their recent improvement has come with James Milner, 40, restored to central midfield alongside Pascal Gross, 34. That kind of blend of youth and experience is hard to achieve. Burnley, their opponents on Saturday, have not been able to find the right balance.
Burnley 0-2 Brighton
Liverpool vs Fulham
Oli says: For much of this season, I have found myself predicting some kind of Liverpool backlash. After comprehensive defeats at Brighton, Manchester City, and Paris Saint-Germain, it is overdue. But I’m not convinced that mentally or physically they have a defiant performance in them at the moment. Fulham have been awkward opponents for Liverpool in recent seasons, and I fancy them to get something on Saturday.
Liverpool 1-1 Fulham
Crystal Palace vs Newcastle
Oli says: For these two clubs, the euphoria that followed last season’s cup success has given way to a kind of post-trophy existential angst. How do you achieve success again? And how can you make it more sustainable next time? Newcastle’s Premier League form has suffered this season while juggling with their European commitments, but now out of the Champions League, they have a rare opportunity to beat opponents with European ambitions of their own.
Crystal Palace 1-2 Newcastle
Sunderland vs Tottenham
Oli says: Much has been made of the challenge Roberto De Zerbi faces to implement his style on a group of players who have been assembled with different playing styles — if any — in mind, but might his front-foot approach suit at least some of these players in a way that Thomas Frank’s and Igor Tudor’s did not? He didn’t win any of his first five games in charge of Brighton in 2022, but performance-wise, I recall there were immediate signs of promise. Obviously, Tottenham need results more than they need performances right now, but I expect them to show more energy and intent than they ever did under Tudor. Away to Sunderland, that is the minimum requirement.
Sunderland 1-1 Tottenham
Nottingham Forest vs Aston Villa
Oli says: I’m writing this preview ahead of Thursday night’s Europa League quarter-finals, so it’s hard to know what kind of shape these two teams should be in. But Villa have given themselves a little more breathing room in their bid for Champions League qualification by beating West Ham last time out, and, with Youri Tielemans ready to return to action, they should head to Nottingham with renewed confidence.
Nottingham Forest 1-2 Aston Villa
Chelsea vs Manchester City
Oli says: Chelsea haven’t beaten Manchester City in 12 meetings since the 2021 Champions League final, and, given the mood at Stamford Bridge after recent results, it is hard to imagine that changing on Sunday. City appear to have found their stride at last, after comprehensive victories over Arsenal in the Carabao Cup and Liverpool in the FA Cup, and they will be desperate to maintain that form as the Premier League title race approaches crunch time.
Chelsea 1-3 Manchester City
Manchester United vs Leeds
Oli says: This will be Manchester United’s first game in 24 days. There is a slight danger of their momentum under Michael Carrick having been lost, but their run-in looks more than manageable: seven Premier League games in 42 days, four of them at Old Trafford, having built up a fair margin for error when it comes to securing Champions League qualification. Leeds will have a spring in their step after reaching the FA Cup semi-final, but Manchester United have more firepower.
Manchester United 2-0 Leeds