Jake’s Predictions 25/26: Staked 466.25pts | Returned 511.09pts | P/L +44.84pts | ROI 10%
Football betting tips: Premier League
Friday 20:00 – West Ham vs Wolves
2pts Crysencio Summerville 1+ shot on target at 6/5 (betway) – min price 8/13
2pts Yerson Mosquera 1+ total shot at 5/6 (bet365) – min price 6/10
Saturday 12:30 – Arsenal vs Bournemouth
0.5pt Gabriel Martinelli to be carded at 10/1 (bet365) – min price 5/1
Saturday 15:00
2.5pts Jan Paul van Hecke 1+ total shot in Burnley vs Brighton at 10/11 (Coral, Ladbrokes) – min price 8/13
2pts Under 2.5 goals in Brentford vs Everton at 5/6 (BOYLE Sports, betway)
Saturday 17:30 – Liverpool vs Fulham
2pts Fulham or draw double chance at 13/10 (General)
0.5pt Virgil van Dijk to be carded at 8/1 (bet365) – min price 5/1
Sky Bet odds | Paddy Power | Betfair
It’s been nearly a month since the last Premier League action, so no need to revisit the last version of this column, but the overall picture is still a good one.
Hopefully we can close the season strongly and with no more international breaks, it’s full steam ahead with the final throes of the top flight season.
We have some huge games at the top and bottom of the league this weekend, with all eyes on Arsenal and Manchester City, as well as Roberto De Zerbi’s Tottenham.
West Ham vs Wolves
This really feel like a must-win game for West Ham. Nuno Espirito Santo’s men are third-bottom and just one point behind Tottenham, and a win here would see the two sides switch positions ahead of Spurs’ game on Sunday.
After a good winning run (three in four), the Hammers have stalled of late in winning just one of their last six league games, but a home game against the bottom side Wolves looks a great opportunity to get a huge win.
The Old Gold somehow managed to get a point in their last away game despite being 2-0 down at Brentford, but on the whole have been miserable travellers this season – indeed they are winless on the road, losing 10 of 15.
A home win is priced accordingly at 4/5, but I want to chance CRYSENCIO SUMMERVILLE‘s fitness and back him to have 1+ SHOT ON TARGET at 6/5.
The Dutchman is touch-and-go for this game but wasn’t risked last weekend with this game in mind having missed a month of action.
Summerville has landed a shot on target in all of his last nine league games and has become the Hammers’ most important player so should see plenty of the ball against a Wolves side happy to sit deep and face plenty of shots.
We’ll also back Wolves defender YERSON MOSQUERA 1+ TOTAL SHOT at 5/6 given how poor West Ham have been from set-pieces, especially lately.
Across their last six matches in 90 minutes, the Hammers have faced 39 shots from set-pieces (6.5 per game), equating to 5.13 xG (0.86 per game), while Wolves offer set-piece threat, led by Mosquera.
The Colombian has registered a shot in nine of his last 13 Premier League appearances, averaging 1.38 shots per 90 in that time, and can be the latest defender to take advantage of the Hammers’ set-play issues.
Score prediction: West Ham 2-1 Wolves (Sky Bet odds: 7/1)
Odds correct at 12:00 BST (09/04/26)
Arsenal vs Bournemouth
This is a big game for Arsenal in the sense that they can go 12 points clear a pile the pressure on Manchester City ahead of their Sunday trip to Chelsea. It won’t be easy though, with the Gunners not firing on all cylinders in attack and Bournemouth on an 11-game unbeaten run in the league.
I’m drawn to the cards markets here with Michael Oliver overseeing proceedings, and he’s been in excellent form of late. Across his last 14 games in all competitions he’s brandished 4.5 cards per game, so with the stakes and pressure high for the hosts and the Cherries a foul-heavy team, he could have a busy afternoon.
At 10/1, I’m willing to chance GABRIEL MARTINELLI TO BE CARDED here given the petulance he’s shown recently and the awkward opponent he’ll be up against. The Brazilian should come in from the start in this match after Leandro Trossard was taken off injured in midweek, with Martinelli coming on to get the game winning assist.
Martinelli has been booked in both of his last two starts, most recently against Southampton in the FA Cup when he committed a foul on the night and was booked for pushing the referee. There is no doubt he has that kind of streak in him, that cynical and petulant streak that all South Americans possess.
Across the season he’s collected four cards which doesn’t sound like many, but on a per 90 basis it works out at 0.21 cards per 90, a figure that would give us a blanket price of just over 7/2. Factor in he could be tasked with slowing down the rapid Alejandro Jimenez and Rayan down Bournemouth’s right, and it looks worth a swing at a double-figure price.
Score prediction: Arsenal 1-0 Bournemouth (Sky Bet odds: 13/2)
Odds correct at 12:30 BST (09/04/26)
Burnley vs Brighton
Burnley will be getting relegated soon while Brighton are back in the race for Europe after four wins in their last five, and I wouldn’t put anyone off backing the Seagulls here as a single (generally 3/4) or in their weekend acca.
We are going to keep backing opposition centre-back shots against Burnley, and this weekend our man is JAN PAUL VAN HECKE, who is 10/11 for 1+ TOTAL SHOT at Turf Moor.
The Dutchman has averaged 0.66 shots per 90 this season, finding the net three times, registering at least one shot in six of his last 11 starts. That may not sound awfully impressive, but this bet is more about Burnley’s inability to defend set-pieces.
Only West Ham (152) have conceded more shots from dead-ball situations than the Clarets (138) this term, while they have really struggled to deal with opposing centre-backs. Across their last 20 league games Scott Parker’s side have conceded 34 shots to centre-backs – an average of 1.70 per game.
At least one CB has had a shot in 15 of those 20, and with Brighton expected to dominate the ball and the territory here, racking up plenty of corners and attacking free-kicks, JPvH should get ample opportunity to get one attempt away. He managed two attempts in the reverse fixtirue too.
Score prediction: Burnley 0-2 Brighton (Sky Bet odds: 15/2)
Odds correct at 14:00 BST (09/04/26)
Brentford vs Everton
Who would have thought that heading into gameweek 32 that a meeting between Brentford and Everton would have such big implications on European qualification? Well, it does.
The Bees sit seventh on 46 points, with that position likely to be enough for Europa League qualification, and Everton in eighth on the same number of points with that position expected to be Conference League qualification. Both sides are just two points behind sixth-placed Chelsea and three off the final Champions League spot held by a faltering Liverpool.
So, there really is plenty to play for on Saturday but I am not expecting this to be a barnstormer. Everton’s away games have averaged just 2.1 goals, with 11 of 15 going UNDER 2.5 GOALS and that’s the selection here.
The Toffees have been tough to beat and tough to score against all season on their travels, shipping just 16 goals in 15, but their pragmatic approach means they struggle going the other way.
Brentford’s home games last season were mental for goals, averaging 3.9 per game under Thomas Frank, but this season that average is down to 2.9 with only eight of 15 seeing three or more goals scored.
Score prediction: Brentford 0-1 Everton (Sky Bet odds: 17/2)
Odds correct at 14:00 BST (09/04/26)
Liverpool vs Fulham
Liverpool are all at sea. They look a tired team and Arne Slot is under increasing pressure with the fans turning. They were poor at the Etihad last weekend and were given the runaround in the Champions League in midweek meaning they will be extremely low on confidence heading into this game.
They could also have one eye on that second leg with PSG hoping to overturn a deficit, and that has me happy to oppose them again and take FULHAM OR DRAW DOUBLE CHANCE at 13/10.
The Cottagers are well rested having not played for three weeks and went into the international break in good form, winning three of their last five league games, a run that has put them back in the European picture. In fact, they head to Anfield just five points behind their fifth-placed hosts.
Liverpool have the capability to make me look silly here should it all click as it has done at times recently – wins at home Newcastle and Brighton a prime example – but they have been far too inconsistent to side with.
Their last home league game saw them draw with Tottenham and gift Igor Tudor his only point as a Premier League manager, while before that they were fortunate to beat West Ham so convincingly with the major metrics painting a closer picture than the 5-2 scoreline (xG: LIV 1.84 – 1.86 WHU).
Burnley, Leeds and Sunderland have all avoided defeat at Anfield, Wolves nearly did, while Nottingham Forest won in their own back yard. Overall Slot’s men have won eight of 15 at home and just four of their last 10, so are easily opposed at the prices.
Fulham started the season terribly away from home, but sorted themselves out after the November international break. Since then the Cottagers have played nine away games and won four times, losing just three with two of those coming against sides in the top three.
Marco Silva has a near fully-fit squad who will be champing at the bit having not played for so long, and their energy levels alone should give them a great chance in this match. It’s also worth mentioning that this game ended 2-2 last season.
We’ll also have a small bet on VIRGIL VAN DIJK TO BE CARDED at 8/1. The discourse continued in midweek about Van Dijk’s fall off this season and that to me makes him a serious card candidate as the season draws to a close, especially given how tired he looks.
He’s played every league and Champions League match this season (42 combined) so fatigue really is an issue alongside his declining speed, which has caught him out on numerous occasions recently. The last thing he needs is a game against a fresh Raul Jimenez who is an absolute handful.
The Mexican hastles and harries with the best of them, is extremely physical and is also excellent at selling fouls. He’s drawn 1.31 fouls per 90, but dishes it out too (1.86 fouls committed per 90), meaning Van Dijk will be in a real battle that could see him caught out.
Van Dijk has been carded six times this season in 42 appearances, a per 90 average of 0.14 which would make 6/1 a fair price, and with Anthony Taylor at the whistle the chances of a card for the Dutchman increase in my eyes, with Taylor showing 4.6 cards per game over his last 12. He has booked Van Dijk this season too for whatever that’s worth.
Score prediction: Liverpool 1-1 Fulham (Sky Bet odds: 15/2)
Odds correct at 16:00 BST (09/04/26)
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