Crystal Palace host Fiorentina at Selhurst Park for the first leg of their Conference League quarter-final on Thursday, 9th April. Check out our betting tips for the match and also take a look at Midnite’s exciting sign up offer, which sees you receive £30 in free bets for the football.
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Crystal Palace vs Fiorentina betting tips
Our expert has analysed the key stats and tactical angles for this fixture, so read on for the analysis behind his selections.
Goals Expected at Both Ends at Selhurst Park
This quarter-final brings together two of the most creative sides in the Conference League, making a case for both teams finding the net. The underlying data shows Crystal Palace have the highest Expected Goals (xG) in the competition with 23.13, suggesting they consistently generate high-quality scoring opportunities.
Despite underperforming against that metric by scoring only 16 goals, Oliver Glasner’s side possesses the attacking framework to trouble any defence, especially at home where they remain unbeaten in Europe this season.
Fiorentina bring their own attacking threat. The Italian side averages 1.75 goals per game in the Conference League and has scored in five of their six away matches in the competition, accumulating 12 goals on their travels. Meanwhile, the selection for both teams to score has been a winning one in four of Fiorentina’s last five matches in all competitions, showing a consistent pattern in their recent games.
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Asian Goal Line Offers Value
While Crystal Palace’s home record in Europe is solid, their finishing has been a significant issue. The Eagles have been the most wasteful side in the competition, missing 36 of their 46 big chances created. This has led to a competition-high underperformance of -7.1 relative to their xG, but it also highlights their ability to carve out openings.
Fiorentina, on the other hand, have been clinical with 17 goals in the tournament. Their defensive record is less consistent, as a recent clean sheet against Verona was their first in four outings. This blend of a potent attack and a vulnerable backline makes them an ideal opponent for a match with multiple goals.
Given Palace’s high chance creation and Fiorentina’s attacking strengths, combined with their defensive frailties, the Asian goal line presents a logical angle. A total of three or more goals secures a win, while exactly two goals would see half the stake returned.
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Mateta to redeem himself to Palace faithful
Palace’s direct, vertical approach at Selhurst Park typically results in open fixtures, making a total of three or more goals a reasonable expectation against a Fiorentina side that has seen plenty of high-scoring aggregate ties in Europe this season.
With Jorgen Strand Larsen suspended, Mateta will be the primary focal point of the Eagles’ attack. Palace will want to take a lead back to Italy to give themselves a chance of progressing to the semi-finals and should be on the front foot. If Palace are successful in creating chances for their striker, veteran Fiorentina shot-stopper David de Gea will inevitably be tested throughout the match, making a requirement of at least three saves a sensible addition to round out the bet builder.
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