Brentford head into the final seven games of the season with their destiny in their own hands.
After the international break that’s felt like an eternity, the Bees finally return to Premier League action on Saturday, occupying seventh place and on course for a historic European qualification.
It was confirmed on Tuesday that the top five finishers will secure Champions League football, meaning that as it stands, sixth and seventh place will be rewarded with Europa League qualification, while eighth would grant a Conference League campaign.
There are several scenarios where even more English sides would qualify for Europe, such as Aston Villa winning the Europa League but finishing outside of the top five.
The remit for Keith Andrews’ side is a simple one: retain their position and hold off the chasing pack to clinch European football for the first time in the club’s history.
Of course, this is easier said than done, particularly with the Premier League table being incredibly tight. Just seven points separate Liverpool in the final Champions League spot (49) and 13th-placed Bournemouth (42) heading into the weekend.
Brentford are breathing down the necks of Chelsea (48), who sit in sixth, followed by the Bees (46), Everton (46), Fulham (44), Brighton (43), Sunderland (43), Newcastle (42) and Bournemouth.
PL table via Fotmob
The next two games are arguably the biggest of Brentford’s season, with back-to-back home clashes against Everton and Fulham, the two sides directly below them in the table. Win both, and clear daylight could be created in the dogfight for European qualification.
However, despite being unbeaten in four league games, the nature of Brentford’s results and performances before the break has created concern within the fanbase.
They’ve won just one of their last six league games, drawing the last three, which included uninspiring goalless shutouts at Bournemouth and Leeds sandwiched between blowing a two-goal lead at home to bottom-side Wolves.
This slump followed the Bees’ most impressive run of the season, where they clinched back-to-back away wins at Aston Villa and Newcastle before coming from behind to nick a draw with leaders Arsenal. A home defeat to Brighton, however, seems to have triggered a downturn in form.
Injuries have undoubtedly played their part, with both left-backs – Aaron Hickey and Rico Henry – out, while key midfield cog Vitaly Janelt has been absent for a while. Creative spark Mikkel Damsgaard has also been struggling with fitness, which has by no means helped.
The international break came at the perfect time in this regard, offering a few weeks for the squad to recharge.
Brentford’s unlikely Champions League push was largely defined by their imperious home record at the start of the campaign, toppling the likes of Liverpool and Manchester United, but they’re now winless in their last four Gtech matches.
With winnable home games to come against Everton, Fulham, Crystal Palace and West Ham, Andrews must reignite that confidence in west London that had served them so well.
The silver lining has been their away form, however. Brentford struggled on the road at the start of the season, but are unbeaten in their last five away games.
This bodes well, given their three remaining matches away from home include trips to United, Manchester City and Liverpool.
While it’s difficult to explain the switch in home and away form, it could be down to the nature of opponents; Brentford have produced most of their best home performances against top-half sides, where they have less possession and punish their opponents on the counter. No side has scored from more ‘fast breaks’ than the Londoners this season.
When teams sit back and show more respect, as has happened recently at the Gtech, the Bees struggle to create chances and break down low blocks.
From Brentford’s perspective, they hold all the power, knowing that if they match or better the results of the teams below them, a remarkable season will be rewarded with European football next term.