Europa Conference League Quarter-Final Betting Preview: Crystal Palace vs Fiorentina
Premier League club Crystal Palace host Italian Serie A outfit Fiorentina in this Europa Conference League quarter-final at Selhurst Park, with kick-off set for 12:00 on Thursday 9 April.
Will Goals Be at a Premium?
The best plan of attack could be backing Under 2.5 when it comes to the Total Goals market for the clash between Crystal Palace and Fiorentina. We can land odds of -108 when it comes to this wager.
Each Team Bidding to Secure Another Win
Crystal Palace head into this tie 14th in the Premier League with 39 points from 30 games, while Fiorentina are 15th in Serie A, having picked up 32 points from 31 matches.
Palace won their last game 2-1 after extra time, following a 1-1 draw in 90 minutes, beating Cypriot First Division club AEK Larnaca away at the AEK Arena in the Europa Conference League round of 16 (2-1 on aggregate). The Eagles had seven shots on target and boasted 70% possession, while Ismaila Sarr scored both goals.
Fiorentina got the win in their previous game. A 1-0 Serie A victory occurred on the road at Stadio Marcantonio Bentegodi when playing Hellas Verona. Paolo Vanoli’s men enjoyed 51% possession and had one shot on goal, with Nicolo Fagioli striking late with the winner.
In the Europa Conference League round of 16, Fiorentina beat Polish Ekstraklasa side Rakow Czestochowa 2-1 on aggregate.
Crystal Palace – Last 10 League & Europa Conference League Games
Palace have 5 wins, 2 losses and 3 draws, averaging 1.3 goals from 3.9 shots on goal and 13.7 attempts. Oliver Glasner’s team have averaged 59.7% possession, 508.9 passes and 5.5 corners per game, with the opposition getting 0.8 goals from 3.5 shots on goal, 8.5 attempts and 3.1 corners.
Top scorer Ismaila Sarr has found the net 6 times, Joergen Strand Larsen 3, with Maxence Lacroix and Evann Guessand both scoring 2. Adam Wharton is top assists maker with 4, while goalies Dean Henderson and Walter Benitez have kept 5 clean sheets between them.
Fiorentina – Last 10 League & Europa Conference League Games
Fiorentina have won 6, lost 2 and drawn 2, averaging 4.8 shots on goal, 14.3 attempts and 1.6 goals. The Florence side average 50.8% possession, 450.4 passes, 4.6 corners taken and 3.8 corners against them, while 1.1 goals have been conceded from 11.6 attempts and 3.8 shots on goal.
Roberto Piccoli has scored 3, followed by Nicolo Fagioli, Cher Ndour and Albert Gudmundsson with 2 goals apiece. Albert Gudmundsson and Rolando Mandragora are top assists providers with 2, while David de Gea has recorded 3 clean sheets in the last 10 games.
Crystal Palace vs Fiorentina Prediction & Betting Tips
We’ve lined up expert Crystal Palace vs Fiorentina betting tips, from our match prediction and correct score call to corners betting insight, best player prop picks and bet builder advice. Read on for the full breakdown.
Match Prediction
The stage is set for a low-scoring first leg of this Europa Conference League quarter-final. As a result, we will wager on Under 2.5 which can be taken at attractive odds of -108, with defences likely to nullify the attacking players.
Team news is very useful and our football tipsters are keen to identify the players who are doubtful with injury. You’ll also find us studying the form guide, with lots of Europa Conference League data available which provides a clear picture from the stats.
Key Crystal Palace vs Fiorentina Europa Conference League & league stats:
The 2.5 line hasn’t been covered in the last 4 Palace games at home.The 2.5 line hasn’t been covered in 7 of the last 10 Palace games.The 2.5 line hasn’t been covered in 12 of the last 20 Palace games.The 2.5 line hasn’t been covered in the last 2 Fiorentina games.
Under 2.5 Probability
According to the best betting sites, our pick has a 51.8% chance of landing a return. Based on our in-depth research, we calculate the actual probability to be 55-60%. This is why we regard this as a value wager.
Looking for Bigger Odds?
If you are looking for bigger odds, then Under 1.5 Goals is a viable alternative. This bet will reward backers if there’s a goalless draw or one of the teams lands a victory by a single goal.
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Disclosure: This preview contains affiliate links; we may earn a commission at no extra cost to you. T&Cs apply. We only recommend licensed and regulated operators. See our Editorial Policy. Pick odds and lines reflect the price available at the time of publication (Apr 7, 18:27). Live market odds are updated regularly and may differ. 18+ (or legal age) | Gamble Responsibly.
Published 18:27, 07 April 2026
Player Prop Picks
Ismaïla Sarr (Palace) has scored four goals in his past five games. Based on the numbers, we are looking to bet the +155 for him to find the net on the Anytime Goalscorer market.
Latest Ismaïla Sarr Player Prop Odds
Goalscorer
Pick odds and lines correct at publication. Live market odds are updated regularly and may differ. T&Cs apply. 18+ (or legal age) | Gamble Responsibly.
Corners Prediction
The 4.5 corners line has been covered by Crystal Palace in five consecutive home matches, with Fiorentina conceding over 4.5 corners in their past two games. We’re expecting history to repeat itself and for the Palace Team Corners line to get covered at -159.
Europa Conference League & League Games
Crystal Palace
Total
8.60
5.50
3.10
Home
9.00
6.00
3.00
Away
9.50
5.20
4.30
Fiorentina
Total
8.40
4.60
3.80
Home
9.50
6.10
3.40
Away
8.40
3.30
5.10
Latest Corner Odds
Total Corners
Crystal Palace Corners
Fiorentina Corners
Most Corners
Pick odds and lines correct at publication. Live market odds are updated regularly and may differ. T&Cs apply. 18+ (or legal age) | Gamble Responsibly.
Crystal Palace vs Fiorentina Odds
The odds and lines below are updated regularly and may differ from the prices shown in our picks, which are captured at the time of publication.
Palace Favourites to Win According to Bookies
With an approximate 62% chance of succeeding, the bookies are being cautious with their -164 betting odds for Crystal Palace triumphing in this Europa Conference League quarter-final. At +440, Fiorentina are regarded as having a lower probability of winning.
There’s an alternative Asian Handicap angle where you back Palace -0.75 against Fiorentina at -139. A 2+ goal win means a full return, although you get a payout on half your stake if they win by one and the other half is refunded.
Over 2.5 Goals is available at shorter odds than Under 2.5 Goals as things stand. A different approach is a Both Teams to Score bet and Yes has been priced at -132.
If you head to the best football betting sites, you can take your pick when it comes to Europa Conference League matches. The hundreds of markets always ensure lots of choice.
Full-Time Result
Half-Time Result
Double Chance
Draw No Bet
Asian Handicap
Total Goals
Both Teams to Score
Jørgen Strand Larsen Heads First Goalscorer Market
Jørgen Strand Larsen is the First Goalscorer favourite at +340 and there’s an opportunity to back him to find the net anytime at +143.
Player Goals
Jørgen Strand Larsen (Crystal Palace)
Ismaïla Sarr (Crystal Palace)
Brennan Johnson (Crystal Palace)
Eddie Nketiah (Crystal Palace)
Live market odds and lines updated regularly. All odds subject to change. T&Cs apply. 18+ (or legal age) | Gamble Responsibly.
Team Stats
Latest Europa Conference League and domestic league stats. Full Time Result, Goals, Corners and Possession.
Crystal Palace Stats
Fiorentina Stats
5 wins, 2 defeats and 3 draws in the previous 10 matches
2 wins, 3 defeats and 5 draws in the previous 10 home matches
6 wins, 2 defeats and 2 draws in the previous 10 matches
6 wins, 3 defeats and 1 draw in the previous 10 away matches
An average of 1.30 goals scored and 0.80 conceded in the previous 10 matches
An average of 0.90 goals scored and 1.00 conceded in the previous 10 home matches
An average of 2.10 goals per game in the previous 10 matches
An average of 1.90 goals per game in the previous 10 home matches
BTTS Yes in 5 of the previous 10 matches
BTTS Yes in 4 of the previous 10 home matches
Over 2.5 Goals in 3 of the previous 10 matches
Over 2.5 Goals in 3 of the previous 10 home matches
An average of 1.60 goals scored and 1.10 conceded in the previous 10 matches
An average of 1.70 goals scored and 1.20 conceded in the previous 10 away matches
An average of 2.70 goals per game in the previous 10 matches
An average of 2.90 goals per game in the previous 10 away matches
BTTS Yes in 4 of the previous 10 matches
BTTS Yes in 6 of the previous 10 away matches
Over 2.5 Goals in 6 of the previous 10 matches
Over 2.5 Goals in 8 of the previous 10 away matches
An average of 5.50 corners awarded and 3.10 corners conceded in the last 10 matches
An average of 6.00 corners awarded and 3.00 corners against in the last 10 home matches
An average of 8.60 corners awarded in the last 10 matches
An average of 9.00 corners awarded in the last 10 home matches
Had the most corners in 8 and least corners in 2 of the last 10 matches
Had the most corners in 8 and least corners in 2 of the last 10 home matches
An average of 4.60 corners awarded and 3.80 corners conceded in the last 10 matches
An average of 3.30 corners awarded and 5.10 corners against in the last 10 away matches
An average of 8.40 corners awarded in the last 10 matches
An average of 8.40 corners awarded in the last 10 away matches
Had the most corners in 7 and least corners in 3 of the last 10 matches
Had the most corners in 4 and least corners in 5 of the last 10 away matches
An average of 59.70% possession in the last 10 matches
An average of 56.50% possession in the last 10 home matches
Most possession in 8 of the last 10 matches
Most possession in 7 of the last 10 home matches
An average of 50.80% possession in the last 10 matches
An average of 47.50% possession in the last 10 away matches
Most possession in 7 of the last 10 matches
Most possession in 5 of the last 10 away matches
Europa Conference League Table
1
Strasbourg
6
5
1
0
11:5
16
2
Rakow
6
4
2
0
9:2
14
3
AEK
6
4
1
1
14:7
13
4
Sparta Prague
6
4
1
1
10:3
13
5
Rayo Vallecano
6
4
1
1
13:7
13
6
Sh. Donetsk
6
4
1
1
10:5
13
7
Mainz 05
6
4
1
1
7:3
13
8
Larnaca
6
3
3
0
7:1
12
9
Lausanne
6
3
2
1
6:3
11
10
Crystal Palace
6
3
1
2
11:6
10
11
Lech
6
3
1
2
12:8
10
12
Samsunspor
6
3
1
2
10:6
10
13
NK Celje
6
3
1
2
8:7
10
14
AZ Alkmaar
6
3
1
2
7:7
10
15
Fiorentina
6
3
0
3
8:5
9
16
Rijeka
6
2
3
1
5:2
9
17
Jagiellonia
6
2
3
1
5:4
9
18
Omonia Nicosia
6
2
2
2
5:4
8
19
FC Noah
6
2
2
2
6:7
8
20
Drita
6
2
2
2
4:8
8
21
KuPS
6
1
4
1
6:5
7
22
KF Shkendija
6
2
1
3
4:5
7
23
Zrinjski Mostar
6
2
1
3
8:10
7
24
Sigma Olomouc
6
2
1
3
7:9
7
25
U Craiova
6
2
1
3
6:8
7
26
Lincoln Red Imps
6
2
1
3
7:15
7
27
Dynamo Kiev
6
2
0
4
9:9
6
28
Legia
6
2
0
4
8:8
6
29
Slovan Bratislava
6
2
0
4
5:9
6
30
Breidablik
6
1
2
3
6:11
5
31
Shamrock Rovers
6
1
1
4
7:13
4
32
Hacken
6
0
3
3
5:8
3
33
Hamrun Spartans
6
1
0
5
4:11
3
34
Shelbourne
6
0
2
4
0:7
2
35
Aberdeen
6
0
2
4
3:14
2
36
Rapid Vienna
6
0
1
5
3:14
1
1
Rayo Vallecano
3
3
0
0
8:2
9
2
Rakow
3
3
0
0
7:1
9
3
Mainz 05
3
3
0
0
5:1
9
4
AEK
3
2
1
0
10:3
7
5
Zrinjski Mostar
3
2
1
0
8:2
7
6
Sparta Prague
3
2
1
0
7:1
7
7
Lech
3
2
1
0
7:2
7
8
Larnaca
3
2
1
0
5:0
7
9
Lausanne
3
2
1
0
5:1
7
10
Rijeka
3
2
1
0
4:0
7
11
Strasbourg
3
2
1
0
6:3
7
12
NK Celje
3
2
1
0
5:2
7
13
KF Shkendija
3
2
1
0
4:1
7
14
AZ Alkmaar
3
2
1
0
3:0
7
15
Lincoln Red Imps
3
2
1
0
5:3
7
16
Dynamo Kiev
3
2
0
1
8:2
6
17
Samsunspor
3
2
0
1
7:2
6
18
Fiorentina
3
2
0
1
4:2
6
19
FC Noah
3
2
0
1
4:3
6
20
Slovan Bratislava
3
2
0
1
4:3
6
21
Jagiellonia
3
2
0
1
3:2
6
22
Breidablik
3
1
2
0
5:3
5
23
KuPS
3
1
2
0
4:2
5
24
Crystal Palace
3
1
1
1
5:4
4
25
Sh. Donetsk
3
1
1
1
3:2
4
26
Sigma Olomouc
3
1
1
1
4:4
4
27
U Craiova
3
1
1
1
3:3
4
28
Drita
3
1
1
1
2:4
4
29
Legia
3
1
0
2
4:3
3
30
Omonia Nicosia
3
1
0
2
2:2
3
31
Shamrock Rovers
3
1
0
2
4:5
3
32
Hamrun Spartans
3
1
0
2
3:4
3
33
Hacken
3
0
2
1
4:5
2
34
Aberdeen
3
0
1
2
3:5
1
35
Shelbourne
3
0
1
2
0:4
1
36
Rapid Vienna
3
0
0
3
0:5
0
1
Sh. Donetsk
3
3
0
0
7:3
9
2
Strasbourg
3
3
0
0
5:2
9
3
Crystal Palace
3
2
0
1
6:2
6
4
Sparta Prague
3
2
0
1
3:2
6
5
AEK
3
2
0
1
4:4
6
6
Omonia Nicosia
3
1
2
0
3:2
5
7
Rakow
3
1
2
0
2:1
5
8
Larnaca
3
1
2
0
2:1
5
9
Rayo Vallecano
3
1
1
1
5:5
4
10
Mainz 05
3
1
1
1
2:2
4
11
Samsunspor
3
1
1
1
3:4
4
12
Lausanne
3
1
1
1
1:2
4
13
Drita
3
1
1
1
2:4
4
14
Fiorentina
3
1
0
2
4:3
3
15
Jagiellonia
3
0
3
0
2:2
3
16
Lech
3
1
0
2
5:6
3
17
Legia
3
1
0
2
4:5
3
18
NK Celje
3
1
0
2
3:5
3
19
Sigma Olomouc
3
1
0
2
3:5
3
20
U Craiova
3
1
0
2
3:5
3
21
AZ Alkmaar
3
1
0
2
4:7
3
22
KuPS
3
0
2
1
2:3
2
23
Rijeka
3
0
2
1
1:2
2
24
FC Noah
3
0
2
1
2:4
2
25
Hacken
3
0
1
2
1:3
1
26
Shelbourne
3
0
1
2
0:3
1
27
Shamrock Rovers
3
0
1
2
3:8
1
28
Rapid Vienna
3
0
1
2
3:9
1
29
Aberdeen
3
0
1
2
0:9
1
30
KF Shkendija
3
0
0
3
0:4
0
31
Slovan Bratislava
3
0
0
3
1:6
0
32
Dynamo Kiev
3
0
0
3
1:7
0
33
Hamrun Spartans
3
0
0
3
1:7
0
34
Breidablik
3
0
0
3
1:8
0
35
Zrinjski Mostar
3
0
0
3
0:8
0
36
Lincoln Red Imps
3
0
0
3
2:12
0
Expert Analysis by Daniel Hughes
International Football Analyst
About the Analyst
Our football previews are produced by a specialised team of analysts, former odds compilers and sports journalists. Picks are research-driven and reviewed for accuracy and editorial consistency under the oversight of our Football Editorial Betting Panel and Editor-in-Chief.
Europa Conference League Predictions Methodology
Our football analysis combines team news, injuries and predicted lineups with league and cup form, standings and fixture context. We use metrics such as xG, xGA, xA and PPDA alongside odds movement to assess chance quality, defensive strength and pressing intensity across global leagues.
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Transparency & Safety
This preview was last updated on Apr 7, 18:27 to reflect the latest team news, injury reports, predicted and confirmed lineups, advanced performance metrics and market movement.
All analysis is produced by professional analysts and reviewed by our Football Editorial Betting Panel for accuracy and consistency.
Historical performance for our main match predictions is tracked and updated regularly for transparency.
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