Europa League Quarter-Final Betting Preview: Bologna vs Aston Villa
Italian Serie A outfit Bologna host Premier League team Aston Villa in the first leg of this Europa League quarter-final at Stadio Renato Dall’Ara, with kick-off set for 12:00 on Thursday 9 April.
We Think Under 2.5 Goals is the Value Bet
After weighing everything up, the price of -137 for Under 2.5 Goals looks to be the sensible wager. Neither Bologna or Aston Villa might be prolific and this Total Goals pick provides lots of value.
Both Sides Won Last Time Out
Bologna head into this match eighth in Serie A with 45 points from 31 games, while Aston Villa sit sixth in the Premier League with 54 points from 31 matches.
Bologna won their last game. It was on their travels where Cremonese were beaten 2-1 at Stadio Giovanni Zini in Serie A. The Emilia-Romagna outfit had most of the ball enjoying 63% possession and seven shots on target, while Joao Mario and Jonathan Rowe scored one goal each.
Villa claimed a 2-0 Premier League home victory over West Ham United at Villa Park in their previous game. Unai Emery’s side enjoyed 59% possession and recorded seven shots on goal, with John McGinn and Ollie Watkins on the scoresheet.
In the Europa League round of 16, Bologna secured a 4-3 extra-time away win after a 3-3 draw in normal time in the second leg against Roma (5-4 on aggregate), while Villa claimed a 3-0 aggregate victory over LOSC Lille.
Head-to-Head Statistics
Villa came out on top when the teams last met, securing a 1-0 home win over Bologna at Villa Park in the league phase in September.
Bologna – Last 10 League & Europa League Games
7 wins, 2 losses and 1 draw, averaging 1.3 goals from 4.6 shots on goal and 13.8 attempts. Bologna have had 52.3% possession, 439.8 passes and 5.1 corners per game. On average, their opponents have scored 0.9 goals from 3.3 shots on goal and 10.0 attempts, while being awarded 4.6 corners.
Top scorers are Jonathan Rowe and Federico Bernardeschi on 3 goals, while Joao Mario has racked up 2. Leading assistors have been Juan Miranda and Jonathan Rowe with 2, while goalkeeper Lukasz Skorupski has 5 clean sheets.
Aston Villa – Last 10 League & Europa League Games
Villa have 4 victories, 4 defeats and 2 draws, with an average of 1.0 goals from 13.7 attempts and 3.7 shots on goal. There’s been an average of 55.1% possession, 475.3 passes, 5.7 corners in their favour and 4.7 corners against, while they’ve conceded 1.2 goals from 11.2 attempts and 4.0 shots on goal.
John McGinn and Ollie Watkins top the team’s scoring charts on 2 goals, with Leon Bailey on 1. Jadon Sancho is top assists provider with 3, while Emiliano Martinez has kept 4 clean sheets in the previous 10 games.
Predicted & Confirmed Lineups
Bologna predicted lineup (4-2-3-1): Federico Ravaglia (GK), Nadir Zortea, Torbjørn Heggem, Jhon Lucumí, Juan Miranda, Simon Sohm, Nikola Moro, Riccardo Orsolini, Federico Bernardeschi, Jonathan Rowe, Santiago Castro.
Aston Villa predicted lineup (4-2-3-1): Emiliano Martinez (GK), Lamare Bogarde, Victor Lindelof, Pau Francisco Torres, Ian Maatsen, Amadou Onana, Douglas Luiz, Jadon Sancho, Morgan Rogers, John McGinn, Tammy Abraham.
Bologna vs Aston Villa Prediction & Betting Tips
Approach Bologna vs Aston Villa fully prepared with our expert match prediction, likely score outcome, best corners advice, standout player prop picks and a hand-picked bet builder.
Match Prediction
We can’t resist the opportunity to back Under 2.5 in the first leg. This wager gives us the opportunity to land odds of -137 and we feel confident of securing a return.
When it comes to making our expert football predictions, it’s important to study team news and observe the latest form. There are lots of Europa League stats that can also help to shape our picks.
Key Bologna vs Aston Villa Europa League & league stats:
The 2.5 line hasn’t been covered in 4 of the last 5 Bologna games at home.The 2.5 line hasn’t been covered in 7 of the last 10 Bologna games.The 2.5 line hasn’t been covered in the last 2 Bologna games at home.The 2.5 line hasn’t been covered in 4 of the last 5 Villa games on the road.The 2.5 line hasn’t been covered in 8 of the last 10 Villa games.The 2.5 line hasn’t been covered in the last 2 Villa games.
Under 2.5 Probability
According to the latest odds, there’s a 57.8% likelihood of our pick winning. Our experts think there’s a stronger chance of success and calculate the probability to be 60-65%. This is why we regard this as a value wager.
Looking for Bigger Odds?
If you want to land a larger price, then there’s a chance to choose Under 2.5 Goals accompanied by a winning team. This is on offer thanks to the Result & Total Goals market.
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Our Match Prediction
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Disclosure: This preview contains affiliate links; we may earn a commission at no extra cost to you. T&Cs apply. We only recommend licensed and regulated operators. See our Editorial Policy. Pick odds and lines reflect the price available at the time of publication (Apr 7, 18:28). Live market odds are updated regularly and may differ. 18+ (or legal age) | Gamble Responsibly.
Published 18:28, 07 April 2026
Player Prop Picks
John McGinn (Villa) has registered two goals in his past four matches. We’ll bear these numbers in mind and take odds of +525 that he is able to feature on the scoresheet when we wager on Anytime Goalscorer.
Latest John McGinn Player Prop Odds
Goalscorer
Pick odds and lines correct at publication. Live market odds are updated regularly and may differ. T&Cs apply. 18+ (or legal age) | Gamble Responsibly.
Corners Prediction
It’s been an average of 6.90 corners for Bologna in their past 10 home games, with Aston Villa conceding over 4.5 corners in the previous three matches. There’s a chance to go over the Bologna Team Corners line and we’re confident this will happen, with odds of -116 on offer.
Europa League & League Games
Bologna
Total
9.70
5.10
4.60
Home
9.80
6.90
2.90
Away
9.30
4.00
5.30
Aston Villa
Total
10.40
5.70
4.70
Home
10.10
5.90
4.20
Away
9.30
4.50
4.80
Latest Corner Odds
Total Corners
Bologna Corners
Aston Villa Corners
Most Corners
Pick odds and lines correct at publication. Live market odds are updated regularly and may differ. T&Cs apply. 18+ (or legal age) | Gamble Responsibly.
Bologna vs Aston Villa Odds
The odds and lines below are updated regularly and may differ from the prices shown in our picks, which are captured at the time of publication.
Latest Odds Suggest a Close Contest
The Full-Time Result odds of +130 suggest that Aston Villa are likely victors and there’s a 43% probability that the favourites win this Europa League quarter-final. If you want to get against the market leader, then you’re able to secure +215 for Bologna.
If Villa only draw with Bologna, then the Asian Handicap -0.25 wager means you get half your stake back. However, you get a full payout at -103 if they’re able to land a victory.
A low-scoring contest will be anticipated by many and Under 2.5 Goals currently has the shortest odds. An alternative angle is a Both Teams to Score bet and Yes has been chalked up at -128.
Europa League games are always really well covered at the top betting sites. Customers are able to find a suitable betting angle thanks to the hundreds of football markets which are made available.
Full-Time Result
Half-Time Result
Double Chance
Draw No Bet
Asian Handicap
Total Goals
Both Teams to Score
Ollie Watkins Favourite to Be First Goalscorer
The First Goalscorer favourite is Ollie Watkins at +525, with similar odds available for this player to register the last goal.
Player Goals
Ollie Watkins (Villa)
Morgan Rogers (Villa)
Tammy Abraham (Villa)
Santiago Castro (Bologna)
Live market odds and lines updated regularly. All odds subject to change. T&Cs apply. 18+ (or legal age) | Gamble Responsibly.
Team Stats
Latest Europa League and domestic league stats. Full Time Result, Goals, Corners and Possession.
Bologna Stats
Aston Villa Stats
7 wins, 2 defeats and 1 draw in the previous 10 matches
2 wins, 6 defeats and 2 draws in the previous 10 home matches
4 wins, 4 defeats and 2 draws in the previous 10 matches
5 wins, 3 defeats and 2 draws in the previous 10 away matches
An average of 1.30 goals scored and 0.90 conceded in the previous 10 matches
An average of 0.70 goals scored and 1.50 conceded in the previous 10 home matches
An average of 2.20 goals per game in the previous 10 matches
An average of 2.20 goals per game in the previous 10 home matches
BTTS Yes in 4 of the previous 10 matches
BTTS Yes in 4 of the previous 10 home matches
Over 2.5 Goals in 3 of the previous 10 matches
Over 2.5 Goals in 4 of the previous 10 home matches
An average of 1.00 goals scored and 1.20 conceded in the previous 10 matches
An average of 1.20 goals scored and 1.30 conceded in the previous 10 away matches
An average of 2.20 goals per game in the previous 10 matches
An average of 2.50 goals per game in the previous 10 away matches
BTTS Yes in 4 of the previous 10 matches
BTTS Yes in 5 of the previous 10 away matches
Over 2.5 Goals in 2 of the previous 10 matches
Over 2.5 Goals in 4 of the previous 10 away matches
An average of 5.10 corners awarded and 4.60 corners conceded in the last 10 matches
An average of 6.90 corners awarded and 2.90 corners against in the last 10 home matches
An average of 9.70 corners awarded in the last 10 matches
An average of 9.80 corners awarded in the last 10 home matches
Had the most corners in 5 and least corners in 5 of the last 10 matches
Had the most corners in 7 and least corners in 2 of the last 10 home matches
An average of 5.70 corners awarded and 4.70 corners conceded in the last 10 matches
An average of 4.50 corners awarded and 4.80 corners against in the last 10 away matches
An average of 10.40 corners awarded in the last 10 matches
An average of 9.30 corners awarded in the last 10 away matches
Had the most corners in 4 and least corners in 3 of the last 10 matches
Had the most corners in 3 and least corners in 4 of the last 10 away matches
An average of 52.30% possession in the last 10 matches
An average of 56.20% possession in the last 10 home matches
Most possession in 6 of the last 10 matches
Most possession in 9 of the last 10 home matches
An average of 55.10% possession in the last 10 matches
An average of 49.90% possession in the last 10 away matches
Most possession in 6 of the last 10 matches
Most possession in 5 of the last 10 away matches
Expert Analysis by Peter Morris
Senior International Football Analyst
About the Analyst
Our football previews are produced by a specialised team of analysts, former odds compilers and sports journalists. Picks are research-driven and reviewed for accuracy and editorial consistency under the oversight of our Football Editorial Betting Panel and Editor-in-Chief.
Europa League Predictions Methodology
Our Europa League match previews and predictions blends squad rotation context and travel schedules with recent form, standings and odds movement. We combine team news, injuries and lineups with metrics such as xG, xGA, xA and PPDA to assess chance quality, defensive strength and pressing intensity across the continent’s secondary club competition.
Full Methodology & Data Sources
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This preview was last updated on Apr 7, 18:28 to reflect the latest team news, injury reports, predicted and confirmed lineups, advanced performance metrics and market movement.
All analysis is produced by professional analysts and reviewed by our Football Editorial Betting Panel for accuracy and consistency.
Historical performance for our main match predictions is tracked and updated regularly for transparency.
Important: Betting should be treated as entertainment and involves risk. Past results are not indicative of future performance. Only wager what you can afford to lose.
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