Close Menu
    Opta Analyst Relegation Probabilities (Spurs at 27%) after loss to Forest (MW31)
    Tottenham Hotspur

    Opta Analyst Relegation Probabilities (Spurs at 27%) after loss to Forest (MW31)

    Share.
    View 17 Comments

    17 Comments

    1. sea_mus on

      Opta’s model factors in **opponent strength** and **betting odds**, not just raw performance.

    4. Ok_Wheel_106 on

      From a good old eye test you can see we are very likely to go down. If Tel is out for a longer period of time we literally have no more wingers available, how are we creating chances? Porro/Udogie cross to Richarlison and Solanke would be our entire attacking plan

    5. Litmanen_10 on

      This is for all the doomers saying we’re done. We’re not done. We have a great chance to survive. Depends on one’s pessimism whether it’s 30%, 50% or 73% chance it’s still a great chance to survive.

      Ball is round. There will be tight matches for us and West Ham. It will come down to small things deciding the relegated team.

    6. Ceap_Bhreatainn on

      Obviously, especially with relegation, points in the bank is a huge factor. However, I feel like this is not factoring in opponent strength well enough.

      Tottenham:
      Sunderland
      Brighton
      Wolves
      Villa
      Leeds
      Chelsea
      Everton

      West Ham:
      Wolves
      Palace
      Everton
      Brentford
      Arsenal
      Newcastle
      Leeds

      Forest:
      Villa
      Burnley
      Sunderland
      Chelsea
      Newcastle
      Man Utd
      Bournemouth

      Forest are likely to beat Burnley, and that is it. West Ham will beat Wolves and pick up a few draws. We need to win games, but we have doable run ins.

    8. analbeard on

      Opta stats are honestly nonsense, they don’t factor in current or recent performances.

      We’re the worst team in the league and have been for months. Chances are more like 70-80% minimum.

    9. Mangeytwat on

      We’ve been the worst team in the league for three months. We’re getting relegated unless something drastic changes. I’m 99% sure we’re going down and have been for weeks.

      You can’t keep playing awful football for this long and survive. There’s a really good chance we only pick up another couple of points in our remaining games and that’s *being generous and assuming we get a bit lucky*.

    11. frysterspurs67 on

      Only team in the prem not to win a game this year. I’m not a doom and gloomer but come on this team is showing no sign of winning anything let alone a point.
      When we lost to West Ham they have pulled back 14 points on us. We are on a downward trajectory whichever way you look at it. Teams are coming here knowing one goal and they fall to pieces.

    12. criticalascended on

      It’s probably way higher than this. West Ham have been playing well for the past 2 months – that’s how they closed the 10 point gap to us. We are more likely to go down especially with their upcoming fixture run.

    13. Own_Willow525 on

      Forest have the hardest fixtures and west ham have the fewest points but I just can’t see how we aren’t favourites. We haven’t won a league game this year, if west ham win their next which is wolves at home then we drop into 18th and we aren’t coming back out

    14. kalule_melendez69 on

      We are NOT getting 8.5 points from the last 7 games lmao. Since GW8 (so the last 24 games) we have been on a 0.66 ppg form. There is no sign we are changing that for a >1 ppg form, specially after yesterday

    15. One-Cream6370 on

      It’s important we see that West Hams probability of relegation is decreasing over time and ours is increasing over time. I also think this analysis understates spurs probability. 27% seems far far far too generous.