[Spencer Mossman] Liverpool rolling 10 match performance (Points per game, xGD per game) under Arne Slot. Shows that underlying numbers dropped off way before results did (started near PSG RO16 tie and Carabao Cup final week)
I did not make this. Full credit to Spencer Mossman/fc_mossman on Twitter/X. I don’t think I’m allowed to link to his tweet or account but the credit goes to him.
Kiseli57 on
Carried by Salah last year, once his form started dropping our results went to shit.
-SandorClegane- on
I see…so all the explanations for us being shit were still yet to happen when we ACTUALLY started being shit?
Knoxy87 on
I said to a friend a while ago, he stopped pressing like Klopp did around the carabao cup final as he got the team to a final and started to implement his own style. Turns out I was right.
Confident_Resolution on
One of the better data sets we’ve seen, and really emphasizes that the rot didnt start in November, but much longer ago. Anyone who was watching our games could see that. Shows how the problem isnt a temporary inability to convert shots as people like to claim, but a fundamental difference in how we’re playing.
Also, it shows that while tragic, we cannot place the blame on the summer tragedy. xG had already plummeted by that point.
But dude, whats with the font?
jimmymemoryman on
I feel like it was the league cup final when arne was found out by howe we haven’t really been as good since then
isenk2 on
Just curious if Klopp would have won the title if he had stayed
These_Ad3167 on
I’d love to hear some actual analysis as to *why* this has happened, beyond surface-level “Slothball took effect” takes that have flooded the sub these past few weeks.
Is it fitness? Conditioning? Are we overly cautious tactically by design? Key players ageing out at precisely the wrong time?
Britz10 on
Someone was arguing with me that we only really started declining this season if you ignore the last 4 games of last season.
TremendousCoisty on
We all know that. Everyone who has been watching the games knows when the dip started, some were just in denial.
patShIPnik on
That’s what a lot of fans were saying. Since late January, early February we already started to look bad on the field.
Salah’s unreal form in February kept results together. In 6 EPL games in February, he scored/assisted 10/12 goals. And scored and assisted 2 first goals against Spurs in our comeback in EFL Cup (4-0). Once his form evaporated, results were next.
vsquad22 on
This has been said so many times by fans with an open mind. This is when the rot started and Slot never managed to fix it. That is why he needs to go.
While the events in the summer and the unfortunate injuries are contributing factors, they occurred after the problems began.
The best case scenario would be that he fix the issues, but that seems very unlikely given that they’ve been present for over a year now.
Nordic_Marksman on
I’m pretty sure these 2 are not really that related to each other. xG differential usually drops when teams play more defensive which a change slot made because even if we scored there was too many goals in the back. So if that is the main reason for xG differential changing which for me at least is a more compelling reason for the change starting this season. There is also a component of poor form in it but I don’t really understand what argument putting these 2 together is supposed to show since the graph itself says nothing about the argument for why they are related.
TokuTheGreatCorso on
been saying we havnt been the same since PSG last season
vc67446 on
Yeah this is the big concern, we’ve been crap for a year with no sign of it changing, if it was 4-5 months of rubbish and we were playing really good now you’d happily say it was just a rotten spell and it’s in the past but this just goes on and on. It’s why I have no hope of it turning around as there isn’t one sign it’s going too, we aren’t doing anything to a good level.
Psittacula2 on
Worth pointing out the above is longee term trend not mechanisms for fall off or “what-if?” eg Guehi in the Summer and how much one small fix could swing the change in performance trends?
I said it in January when no defender this season was signed but one very good potential one was for next season, it is a write-off. Main aim, top 4 and a good cup run eg final or trophy at best and acceptable just top 4. Worse case, dropping out of top 4.
Currently 5 and 6pts behind Villa and Utd. So requires 2 wins to their dropping points and that still hits the mark. Not good but not as dire as the data is saying because the team has transitioned from a good place eg savings on transfers and league cup.
PSG if Liverpool are fit and with energy will be a good baromter going against one of the best attacking teams in the world… Manager is one point on the whole process at Liverpool and it is hard to know if they selection forces a constant weakness in defence over the total season.
SPRITZ_APEROL on
I mean there was a general drop in our performances somewhere around that Feb-Mar period. People always go with the tiredness excuse and did it this time too. Then there was a beach argument for these last 3-4 games.
Likes of Wolverhampton could come to Liverpool and not let us leave our half for 45 minutes. CC final was one of the flattest final performances I’ve seen us put it for a some time while our trip to Paris (bar the result obv) was something else too. Plenty of examples, same we’ve looked across the 25/26 season too.
SwordofKhaine123 on
I’ve said this a million times, the performances fell off since Feb.
All I’ve heard were excuses “title was already won”, “jota”, “new players gelling”, “salah becoming a selfish shitbag”, etc.
No it was Slot, Slot all along. The more Slot’s imprint fell on team the worse it got.
dancingonred on
It’s because he’s starting Cody gakpo way too much. Someone needs to run the numbers. I’m not joking
Galick-Gunner on
So it’s been over a year. Jesus Christ.
Af1_supra on
I feel vindicated here, got downvoted for saying our performances dropped off from the turn of the year
![[Spencer Mossman] Liverpool rolling 10 match performance (Points per game, xGD per game) under Arne Slot. Shows that underlying numbers dropped off way before results did (started near PSG RO16 tie and Carabao Cup final week)](https://www.eucup.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/03/gxw3g4ypltqg1-1536x1280.png "[Spencer Mossman] Liverpool rolling 10 match performance (Points per game, xGD per game) under Arne Slot. Shows that underlying numbers dropped off way before results did (started near PSG RO16 tie and Carabao Cup final week)")
24 Comments
At least we’re consistent
The numbers don’t lie, Slot has to go.
I did not make this. Full credit to Spencer Mossman/fc_mossman on Twitter/X. I don’t think I’m allowed to link to his tweet or account but the credit goes to him.
Carried by Salah last year, once his form started dropping our results went to shit.
I see…so all the explanations for us being shit were still yet to happen when we ACTUALLY started being shit?
I said to a friend a while ago, he stopped pressing like Klopp did around the carabao cup final as he got the team to a final and started to implement his own style. Turns out I was right.
One of the better data sets we’ve seen, and really emphasizes that the rot didnt start in November, but much longer ago. Anyone who was watching our games could see that. Shows how the problem isnt a temporary inability to convert shots as people like to claim, but a fundamental difference in how we’re playing.
Also, it shows that while tragic, we cannot place the blame on the summer tragedy. xG had already plummeted by that point.
But dude, whats with the font?
I feel like it was the league cup final when arne was found out by howe we haven’t really been as good since then
Just curious if Klopp would have won the title if he had stayed
I’d love to hear some actual analysis as to *why* this has happened, beyond surface-level “Slothball took effect” takes that have flooded the sub these past few weeks.
Is it fitness? Conditioning? Are we overly cautious tactically by design? Key players ageing out at precisely the wrong time?
Someone was arguing with me that we only really started declining this season if you ignore the last 4 games of last season.
We all know that. Everyone who has been watching the games knows when the dip started, some were just in denial.
That’s what a lot of fans were saying. Since late January, early February we already started to look bad on the field.
Salah’s unreal form in February kept results together. In 6 EPL games in February, he scored/assisted 10/12 goals. And scored and assisted 2 first goals against Spurs in our comeback in EFL Cup (4-0). Once his form evaporated, results were next.
This has been said so many times by fans with an open mind. This is when the rot started and Slot never managed to fix it. That is why he needs to go.
While the events in the summer and the unfortunate injuries are contributing factors, they occurred after the problems began.
The best case scenario would be that he fix the issues, but that seems very unlikely given that they’ve been present for over a year now.
I’m pretty sure these 2 are not really that related to each other. xG differential usually drops when teams play more defensive which a change slot made because even if we scored there was too many goals in the back. So if that is the main reason for xG differential changing which for me at least is a more compelling reason for the change starting this season. There is also a component of poor form in it but I don’t really understand what argument putting these 2 together is supposed to show since the graph itself says nothing about the argument for why they are related.
been saying we havnt been the same since PSG last season
Yeah this is the big concern, we’ve been crap for a year with no sign of it changing, if it was 4-5 months of rubbish and we were playing really good now you’d happily say it was just a rotten spell and it’s in the past but this just goes on and on. It’s why I have no hope of it turning around as there isn’t one sign it’s going too, we aren’t doing anything to a good level.
Worth pointing out the above is longee term trend not mechanisms for fall off or “what-if?” eg Guehi in the Summer and how much one small fix could swing the change in performance trends?
I said it in January when no defender this season was signed but one very good potential one was for next season, it is a write-off. Main aim, top 4 and a good cup run eg final or trophy at best and acceptable just top 4. Worse case, dropping out of top 4.
Currently 5 and 6pts behind Villa and Utd. So requires 2 wins to their dropping points and that still hits the mark. Not good but not as dire as the data is saying because the team has transitioned from a good place eg savings on transfers and league cup.
PSG if Liverpool are fit and with energy will be a good baromter going against one of the best attacking teams in the world… Manager is one point on the whole process at Liverpool and it is hard to know if they selection forces a constant weakness in defence over the total season.
I mean there was a general drop in our performances somewhere around that Feb-Mar period. People always go with the tiredness excuse and did it this time too. Then there was a beach argument for these last 3-4 games.
Likes of Wolverhampton could come to Liverpool and not let us leave our half for 45 minutes. CC final was one of the flattest final performances I’ve seen us put it for a some time while our trip to Paris (bar the result obv) was something else too. Plenty of examples, same we’ve looked across the 25/26 season too.
I’ve said this a million times, the performances fell off since Feb.
All I’ve heard were excuses “title was already won”, “jota”, “new players gelling”, “salah becoming a selfish shitbag”, etc.
No it was Slot, Slot all along. The more Slot’s imprint fell on team the worse it got.
It’s because he’s starting Cody gakpo way too much. Someone needs to run the numbers. I’m not joking
So it’s been over a year. Jesus Christ.
I feel vindicated here, got downvoted for saying our performances dropped off from the turn of the year
https://www.reddit.com/r/LiverpoolFC/comments/1rluqx0/with_tottenham_player_mickey_van_de_vens_red_card/o8v3bhr/
We visibly dropped deeper against PSG and that carried on into the latter stages of the season.
People wrote it off as there’s nothing to play for since the league was already won but there was a definite change in mentality