Stuff I do when bored at work. I’ve even have made a spreadsheets for my CIV5 save
bvengers on
Villa and us are favourites now. It’s going to be a battle between Chelsea and Liverpool and maybe Everton /Brentford for the final spot.
68 points guarantees top 5 for us. If we beat Liverpool or Chelsea, 66 points guarantees.
They’ll drop points for sure, 3 wins is sufficient I reckon.
Speedodoyle on
A really good project, but the difficulty is way off. There are no games that are easier than others, and results are unpredictable.
Add to that, you have sunderland as Orange for us and Chelsea, but yellow for Villa. You have Forest as Green for us, but forest are a serious side, not easy by any stretch of the imagination. Spurs and Burnly wont be a walk in the park for Villa either, and 17th place Spurs playing chelsea in the second last game of the season when they might be fighting for their lives wont really be an easy game.
Utds9 on
The Chelsea, Brentford, Liverpool stretch will determine where we finish. 6 or 7 points there and mathematically we’re just about there.
RedHabibi on
Quality post. Really wish we secured all 3 points on Friday but I think we’ll be alright. Beat Leeds, Chelsea, Nottingham and Brighton and that puts at 67 points. Which should be enough.
scottrod37 on
I think your points system based solely on league position is a little flawed. You don’t take into account the stakes for some of these teams, like Leeds and Forest who are trying to stay up and teams like Everton who will be pushing for Europe. Also, it doesn’t look like you’ve taken home vs. away into account either. As fans we can’t help but prognosticate, but shock results are also why we love football. I can’t see the run in playing out anything like this.
MissingLink101 on
Towards the end of the season it’s almost better to be facing the yellow and orange teams in midtable than the ones scrapping to avoid relegation. Villa won’t have easy games against Forest and Burnley, I’d include Spurs but they’re shite.
Eleven918 on
These red/green/yellow markers don’t mean much to me.
We didn’t beat Forest or Leeds this season. What makes them deserve green and yellow?
CBPanik on
Chelsea and Liverpool have the hardest run ins but we play both and if we drop those 6 points, it’s going to get really hairy. Still anyone’s to lose.
spongecock23 on
I would put the game against Leeds under orange or even red. You never know with derbies plus Leeds are a really physical team even though they have been lackluster recently.
Drag2oon on
Leeds is a must win game, rest all are very tricky
JayCMo on
I think what’s also reassuring is that Chelsea/Liverpool are closer to 13th/11th than they are to us. Lots of teams around them putting on pressure will hopefully mean they’re more focussed on staying above what’s below them, than clawing in those above. For Liverpool, draws with Everton, Fulham and Brentford might not end up being bad results. They’ve also got City and PSG in the cups to contend with.
Tricky run ins all round, but I’m glad we’re in the driving seat.
Zakedawn on
Not sure about the colour coding.
I’d rather play Sunderland and Brighton at this point in the season Vs Forest Spurs or West Ham
slithered-casket on
No reason why we can’t win every game.
But Chelsea/Liverpool playing each other on the 9th May basically gives us a free 3 points to lock up CL.
SeatSniffer12345 on
I cant see Chelsea doing it. Even Nottingham Forest is a tricky game. Realistically, Spurs (H) is the only 3 points I could see them getting.
Action_Limp on
Without trying to be funny (although it’s humorous), OP should include Brentford and Everton in this Excel sheet. As they are in better form and right on Chelsea and Liverpool’s heels.
Jump_Hop_Step on
I spy a green for Spurs
maverick4002 on
Chelsea away is an orange for us but a red for Chelsea? I’m not sure id make that distinction
b4d_b0y on
Great to see the analysis..
But I think this is more accurate and somebody has already done the hard work.
20 Comments
Stuff I do when bored at work. I’ve even have made a spreadsheets for my CIV5 save
Villa and us are favourites now. It’s going to be a battle between Chelsea and Liverpool and maybe Everton /Brentford for the final spot.
68 points guarantees top 5 for us. If we beat Liverpool or Chelsea, 66 points guarantees.
They’ll drop points for sure, 3 wins is sufficient I reckon.
A really good project, but the difficulty is way off. There are no games that are easier than others, and results are unpredictable.
Add to that, you have sunderland as Orange for us and Chelsea, but yellow for Villa. You have Forest as Green for us, but forest are a serious side, not easy by any stretch of the imagination. Spurs and Burnly wont be a walk in the park for Villa either, and 17th place Spurs playing chelsea in the second last game of the season when they might be fighting for their lives wont really be an easy game.
The Chelsea, Brentford, Liverpool stretch will determine where we finish. 6 or 7 points there and mathematically we’re just about there.
Quality post. Really wish we secured all 3 points on Friday but I think we’ll be alright. Beat Leeds, Chelsea, Nottingham and Brighton and that puts at 67 points. Which should be enough.
I think your points system based solely on league position is a little flawed. You don’t take into account the stakes for some of these teams, like Leeds and Forest who are trying to stay up and teams like Everton who will be pushing for Europe. Also, it doesn’t look like you’ve taken home vs. away into account either. As fans we can’t help but prognosticate, but shock results are also why we love football. I can’t see the run in playing out anything like this.
Towards the end of the season it’s almost better to be facing the yellow and orange teams in midtable than the ones scrapping to avoid relegation. Villa won’t have easy games against Forest and Burnley, I’d include Spurs but they’re shite.
These red/green/yellow markers don’t mean much to me.
We didn’t beat Forest or Leeds this season. What makes them deserve green and yellow?
Chelsea and Liverpool have the hardest run ins but we play both and if we drop those 6 points, it’s going to get really hairy. Still anyone’s to lose.
I would put the game against Leeds under orange or even red. You never know with derbies plus Leeds are a really physical team even though they have been lackluster recently.
Leeds is a must win game, rest all are very tricky
I think what’s also reassuring is that Chelsea/Liverpool are closer to 13th/11th than they are to us. Lots of teams around them putting on pressure will hopefully mean they’re more focussed on staying above what’s below them, than clawing in those above. For Liverpool, draws with Everton, Fulham and Brentford might not end up being bad results. They’ve also got City and PSG in the cups to contend with.
Tricky run ins all round, but I’m glad we’re in the driving seat.
Not sure about the colour coding.
I’d rather play Sunderland and Brighton at this point in the season Vs Forest Spurs or West Ham
No reason why we can’t win every game.
But Chelsea/Liverpool playing each other on the 9th May basically gives us a free 3 points to lock up CL.
I cant see Chelsea doing it. Even Nottingham Forest is a tricky game. Realistically, Spurs (H) is the only 3 points I could see them getting.
Without trying to be funny (although it’s humorous), OP should include Brentford and Everton in this Excel sheet. As they are in better form and right on Chelsea and Liverpool’s heels.
I spy a green for Spurs
Chelsea away is an orange for us but a red for Chelsea? I’m not sure id make that distinction
Great to see the analysis..
But I think this is more accurate and somebody has already done the hard work.
https://www.soccerstats.com/table.asp?league=england&tid=10#ml1-3
Chelsea’s run in, on their current form and mood, just smells like pure disaster.