Charlie Cummings previews Saturday’s English Premier League match between Leeds United and Brentford FC.
Both Brentford and Leeds are closing in on their goal for the end of the season. The Bees are inching closer to European football next season, while Leeds have weathered the storm and remain out of relegation range. It’s a crucial clash for their season hopes at Elland Road.
Leeds is a +145 ML favorite on DraftKings Sportsbook. A Brentford upset is priced at +180 odds, with the draw at +250. The over/under for this game is set at 2.5 goals. Let’s get into a prediction and a pick for this matchup.
Leeds vs. Brentford prediction, pick
It’s a scary time for Leeds United. After a crucial win over Nottingham Forest on Feb. 6, they’ve gone winless in their last five Premier League games. That includes three draws, so they’re gaining important points, but it has left them in a precarious position. Here’s a snapshot of the drop zone:
A loss here would expose them to a jump in the standings by Tottenham and Nottingham Forest. The eight-goal gap in goal differential between Leeds and West Ham is vital here, but they don’t want their Premier League status to come down to goal difference. They need points.
Brentford needs points for a different reason. With 45 points on the year, they’re four points back of Liverpool for a Europa League spot, and are in a good position to play in the Europa Conference League at worst. But they do have Everton, Newcastle, and Bournemouth all breathing down their necks. It’s now or never if the Bees want to be playing European football next year.
It all comes down to the back lines here. Brentford’s defense has been rough for a team that’s in position to crack the top five with a good run. Leeds have struggled all season long to keep clean sheets. There’s scoring talent on both sides; can they take advantage of the chances? Leeds have generated the highest percentage of goals via set piece; will Brentford be able to deal with them? We have a lot of defensive questions to answer here.
Leeds have done well at Elland Road, but I think the Igor Thiago-led attack is going to give them trouble. And you can’t count out breakout Leeds midfielder Anton Stach when it comes to creating something out of nothing. There should be goals in this one, and we’ll get excitement from this game.
Best Bet: Over 2.5 Total Goals (-120)