Third time lucky for Eagles against Larnaca
Not for the first time this season, Crystal Palace were frustrated by Cypriot side AEK Larnaca at Selhurst Park last week, but they should be able to grind out a victory in the second leg of their round-of-16 tie in Cyprus tonight.
The Eagles slipped to a shock 1-0 defeat at home to Larnaca in the league phase of the Conference League back in October, before drawing 0-0 with them in south London last Thursday.
On both occasions, the scorelines did not fully reflect how the game unfolded, with Palace totalling 3.74 expected goals (xG) across the two meetings and having 71 per cent possession last week.
Of course, Larnaca deserve immense credit for their defensive organisation, while Palace’s inability to make the most of possession and chances points to their own problems up front.
But the bottom line is the approach is not sustainable for Larnaca and this evening, Palace should find a way through.
After this second leg, Palace do not play again until a league game with Newcastle on April 11 and, given they are out of the FA Cup and have little to play for in the Premier League, they should be throwing everything at this match.
Midfielders Daichi Kamada and Adam Wharton should come into the side and Palace undoubtedly have quality in the final third in rotating forwards Jorgen Strand Larsen and Jean-Philippe Mateta.
Larnaca will not make it easy – they have conceded just one goal in the Conference League this season – but they benefited from a sending-off after two minutes of their 4-0 win over AZ Alkmaar and have subsequently scored just three times in their last six matches in the competition.
They are good at limiting opportunities but do not exactly carry a threat at the other end, so if Palace can create a similar volume of chances as before, it could well take just one goal to see off the tie.
All things considered, a win to nil for Crystal Palace appeals at 6/4.