Can Tonda Eckert Get Saints Promotion ! The Stats Say Yes He Can
Wednesday, 4th Feb 2026 08:47 by The Walking Man
Southampton have picked up in the past 3 games, but the table still does not make good reading for Saints supporters, however under Tonda Eckert overall they have had the stats to say they can go up.
Since replacing Will Still, Tonda Eckert has had an up and down set of results, they have veered from brilliant, down to below average and now in the last three games they have picked up again with 2 wins and a draw in our last 3 outings.
Despite all the trials and tribulations of this season though, we are only 7 points away from the play off spots, a gap that should be a little smaller than it is, it is bridgeable but it will be tough.
Eckert has managed Saints in 17 Championship games so far, he has gained 28 points with a record that reads 8 Wins, 4 draws and 5 defeats, that’s 1.65 points per game, if you average that over a season of 46 games then it totals 75 points, that is still promotion chasing form and in most seasons that total is good enough to make the play offs.
Given the underlying issues that Eckert has inherited, including a squad battered by 4 managers in the previous 12 months and relegation, cliques within the dressing room etc, and a lack of leadership, I don’t think he has done a bad job so far.
The truth is that he has a task both behind him and ahead of him, that is not just about winning games of football, but changing the make up and mind set of an entire squad and that is difficult to do overnight.
But the good news is that although If he keeps up that average then we will fall just short of the play offs with 66-67 points, however we can still challenge with just a slight improvement, if we can it up to just over 2 points a game then we can have a chance of the play offs.
If we get 32 points from our last 16 games then we will end on 72 points and that is usually just about good enough to get into the play offs.
So in the last 16 games we need essentially 9-10 wins and a draw or two, maybe 3, with perhaps 3-4 defeats max.
This is of course not an exact science, but if we can go on a run of wins as we did in Tonda’s first month or so in charge, then it is not out of the question.
In his first 8 games Eckert had 6 wins and 2 defeats, a total of 18 points, if he can repeat that run twice then that will be 36 points and that will mean 76 points and that has meant a place in the play offs in virtually every season.
The Championship is very packed in from 5th place down to Saints in 14th, only 10 points separate Millwall in 5th with 50 points, to Southampton in 14th with 40.
The table shows that those teams are all pretty much of a muchness, they are all dropping points not just against the top 4, but also against themselves and this could let Saints come in on the rails.
A tough ask yes ! but doable and as we have seen in the past, often the team that comes into form late in the season and sneaks into the play offs often takes that momentum forward to the final at Wembley and wins.
The doom & gloom merchants will point to the sale of Adam Armstrong and his replacement by Cyle Larin as a backward step, but as much as I loved Adam Armstrong, I don’t think it has to be.
The critics will point to the fact that in his 9 League games for Feyenoord this season Larin failed to score and Armstrong is our top scorer, that is true, but another stat is that both have exactly the same scoring record in their last 9 League games, ie zero.
Larin has not played in England, but despite what some would have you believe his scoring record is not bad, around 1 in 3 goals, all in the top flight leagues not just his 2 seasons in the USA but across Europe.
Perhaps not Premier League stats, but that isn’t the job we are bringing him in to do.
But the way that we have played not just in the purple patch after Eckert took over, but in the last 3 games has not just been about a centre forward scoring , Leo Scienza & Finn Azaz are a major part of our scoring chart, if Ross Setwart stays fit then he will score goals, Cameron Archer may now get more of a chance with one less forward than before the window and if Larin can weigh in then all the better.
It should also be noted that Adam Armstrong did not start in the 2 wins in the last 3 games, the only game he did start was the draw at Pompey, our playing style does not necessarily need him.
I am sorry to see him go I would rather he had stayed, but the fact is for one reason or another his heart hasn’t been at the club, as he has said he needs a fresh challenge and I respect that.
So the last part of the season can still end well, Saints supporters can either spend the next few weeks moaning about Larin and Sport Republic or whatever or they can enjoy watching the team trying to make up the gap between 14th & 6th.
It doesn’t have to be frothing at the mouth, it can be about just enjoying the experience of attending a football match and roaring your team on, as it was in the play offs & final just two years ago, a fact that is conveniently forgotten when people talk about 4 year of misery under Sport Republic.
That is not quite true, but that does not mean that they have not done a lot of things wrong, it just means there have been some good times in the last 4 years.
The run in now starts on Saturday against Watford, they are on a poor run, if we can beat them and beat them well, or for that matter just beat them, then it is game on, Tonda’s points average goes up to 1.72 and getting into the play offs is a little easier.
All Photos Via Reuters
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