Can Arsenal win the Premier League without an outstanding attacker?

As Arsenal spent almost the whole second half of their 3-2 defeat to Manchester United chasing an equaliser, it never seemed likely they would create a clear-cut chance from open play. Arsenal are able to dominate possession, and to record a regular stream of goals from set pieces. But Arsenal’s inability to score goals from open play remains highly unusual for a side top of the table.

Take away penalties, set pieces and own goals, and they’ve managed only 22 goals from 23 matches this season. Manchester City (36), Liverpool (28), Manchester United (26), Aston Villa (24), Bournemouth (24), and Brentford (24) have all managed more, and Chelsea have managed the same number. This is despite Arsenal having the widest range of attacking options in the Premier League.

This is a period of football in which squad depth is vaunted like never before — it’s the five-substitutes era, and Mikel Arteta’s attempt to get back into the game yesterday involved a quadruple substitution, which would have been literally impossible until 2020. In that sense, football has changed. But equally, Arsenal are lacking a single outstanding attacker this season. And while there’s no particular need for one single attacker to dominate in terms of goalscoring, it’s very rare for a side to win the title without one standout attacker having an excellent individual campaign.

As a very general rule — backed up by an academic paper written by the late Garry Gelade, a Cambridge graduate who played an influential role in the development of football analytics — the quality of a side’s defence is determined more by the weakest defensive player, but the quality of a side’s attack is determined more by its strongest attacking player.

That basically makes sense. Defending is largely reactive, and opponents are able to target one player or zone. Attacking is proactive, and you can attempt to work the ball into your best attacker. But who is Arsenal’s best attacker?

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Ultimately, Arsenal’s current approach has taken them to the top of the table: four points clear, and favourites for the title. But it feels like Arteta’s side will, at some point this season, require a burst of brilliance from an attacking player: the equivalent of Marc Overmars’ run-in in 1997-98, of Freddie Ljungberg’s in 2001-02. Lots of Arsenal’s attackers have it in them, and have shown that level within this system previously.

Link to the paper:

https://www.researchgate.net/publication/318291957_The_Influence_of_Team_Composition_on_Attacking_and_Defending_in_Football