Praying for a Pafos/Quarabag, but knowing our luck in draws, we’ll end up with Dortmund or Napoli…
TopRaise7 on
Desperately need a win. We can’t handle the extra games
Deviceing on
Usual disclaimer that this is a fairly basic model, just uses bookies odds from the first 7 rounds to project team’s chances in the final round, so it doesn’t properly account for our recent bad form – the true probability of us finishing top 8 will be lower than 22.1%, as an example. It’s occurred to me that as there’s only 1 round left, I could just use the actual current bookies odds for those games to get better numbers, I won’t have time tonight but maybe I’ll manage it before the game.
Also, 100%/0% doesn’t mean mathematically certain/impossible, just that it didn’t occur in my 10000 simulations.
I read somewhere that if we’d got a 4th goal vs PSV, we’d be more likely to qualify top 8, as a draw in the final game would then have us above PSG on GD, rather than below on GF. It is correct – that 2.4% chance with a draw grows to 12.9% if I change our previous result to 4-0.
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Praying for a Pafos/Quarabag, but knowing our luck in draws, we’ll end up with Dortmund or Napoli…
Desperately need a win. We can’t handle the extra games
Usual disclaimer that this is a fairly basic model, just uses bookies odds from the first 7 rounds to project team’s chances in the final round, so it doesn’t properly account for our recent bad form – the true probability of us finishing top 8 will be lower than 22.1%, as an example. It’s occurred to me that as there’s only 1 round left, I could just use the actual current bookies odds for those games to get better numbers, I won’t have time tonight but maybe I’ll manage it before the game.
Also, 100%/0% doesn’t mean mathematically certain/impossible, just that it didn’t occur in my 10000 simulations.
I read somewhere that if we’d got a 4th goal vs PSV, we’d be more likely to qualify top 8, as a draw in the final game would then have us above PSG on GD, rather than below on GF. It is correct – that 2.4% chance with a draw grows to 12.9% if I change our previous result to 4-0.