I can just about cope with xG being a useful metric for analysis, but xP!? Wtf!? Now here is the real BS. Still, +18 means we are the best performing team in the league right?! 🤡
by mdhurst
I can just about cope with xG being a useful metric for analysis, but xP!? Wtf!? Now here is the real BS. Still, +18 means we are the best performing team in the league right?! 🤡
by mdhurst
18 Comments
This is what happens when you start to compound data that already had a highly questionable use case to begin with.
I would like to see how we perform using XxP – expected expected points. I, for one, expected we’d have a higher xP.
I hate xG. Football’s literally about scoring goals so why is “hypothetical goals you should’ve scored” even a real metric lol
Edit: misread that it is about expected points, not xG. Replace goals with points and I still think my point stands haha
And that’s why you *xPect* the unexpected.
Junk science
The “over performance” should be a credit to our players for outdoing what the stats think possible
But that goes against their agenda
Forest at 12th and United at 3rd tells you everything.
Sundobros are much better than 19 as well.
Surely any manager with a minus needs to be sacked immediately (some already have looking at that list!), otherwise the metric is just meaningless except for looking for an excuse if it’s not working out (frank at spurs) or managers looking to say they are doing well (us, Sunderland)
It is not that absurd a stat. But it’s a largely pointless stat which works well for predictions markets which is what every pundit is trying to do.
Wolves in 17th is nearly as bad lol
They legit thought Wolves would be around the same place as us the melons.
I blame Football Manager, social media and America for this.
Anyone see Conor ONeill on 1874 this week?
He is a stats lad with absolutely zero villa connection
Said our xg after going behind is one of the strongest in the league
Key thing for unai game state.
Ah yes, with Wolves less than a point behind us.
The only thing we learn from this data is that optas model is massively flawed.
Everyone in the comments is an idiot
Well I certainly didn’t expect that. They just glaze numbers for the o14, don’t put as much into it.
Clowns
If football was predictable by statistics we’d all be rich and the bookies would be broke.
It’s a game and we are winning.
Forest being ahead of us in this table tell you everything you need to know. They were shite and a clear few levels below us when we faced them a couple weeks ago.