We look at the
Championship table based on expected points, rather than those won
in real life – you know, the ones that actually
count.
Well, the true answer is quite obviously no. Points are won and
lost whether the teams deserve the eventual outcome in matches or
not. But this is where our Opta expected points model can help tell
the real story of those matches. What could the
Championship
table look like so far in 2023-24 had games ended as the underlying
data suggests they should have?
Our expected points model simulates the number of goals scored
by each side in each match based on the expected
goals (xG) value of every shot taken. It then uses the
simulated number of goals to determine the match outcome
(win/draw/loss). Each match is simulated 10,000 times. The expected
points for each team in each match can then be calculated based on
the proportion of simulations they win/draw/lose.
This is of course not an exact science, as expected goals data
doesn’t include a lot of factors, such as game state and dangerous
periods of possession that don’t lead to shots. Nevertheless, it’s
still a decent barometer for how teams are performing 20 matches
into the 2023-24 campaign.
That underlying data tells us that Leeds United
should be top of the Championship table. Cue the usual
responses of “well if my auntie had…” – you know the rest.
Weirdly, it’s not because of their own performances, either.
Their expected points total of 39.1 is below their real-life points
tally of 41 from their 20 matches. It’s actually down to both
Leicester City and Ipswich Town
winning many more points than their on-pitch performances – based
on attacking and defensive metrics, game by game – suggests they
should have. Leicester have won an exceptional 49 points from 20
games, but that’s an overperformance of around 10 points (10.3 to
be exact, but you can’t win 0.3 of a point, can you?). Ipswich
Town’s overperformance has been even more wild – winning between 12
and 13 points more (12.5) than expected, which is the largest
difference between real-life points won and expected points in the
entire Championship this season.
Leeds trail Ipswich by seven points with 26 games remaining in
the Championship this season, with the gap between them and
table-topping Leicester a point more (eight), but this data should
give confidence to their fans that a dramatic turnaround could
still take place if performances by the three clubs continue the
way that they have.
Even Sunderland – who recently sacked manager
Tony Mowbray – have a higher expected points tally (37.7) than
Ipswich (35.5) this season. Does it suggest that Mowbray’s
dismissal was a little harsh, considering he guided the league’s
youngest side to the Championship playoffs last season? What’s
more, they weren’t far off being in the top six again this term
with a team that has had a starting XI average age (23 years, 20
days) over a year younger than any other side in the competition in
2023-24.
Elsewhere, both Middlesbrough and
Coventry have a big negative difference between
their expected points and their real points, suggesting that both
teams should really be higher than they are in the table and within
the top six.
At the bottom of the Championship, both QPR and
Sheffield Wednesday’s underlying data metrics
suggest they can have confidence in an improvement in results with
a little bit more luck. Neither are in the bottom three for
expected points, with the Owls winning eight points (8.3) fewer
than their attacking and defensive performances over the 20 matches
so far suggest they should have.
Of course, the final league table will be based on those points
won in reality, not those on spreadsheets. However, with more than
half of the Championship campaign left to play, looking at the
underlying data to see where teams could be placed right now with a
mixture of some luck, better quality defending and more consistency
in front of goal offers an insight into how the rest of the season
could pan out.
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