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“We need to keep believing and approach every single day like we did from day one: Believing we could win,” said USMNT coach Mauricio Pochettino after beating Australia 2-0 to confirm a place in the World Cup knockouts with one game to spare.
A second World Cup group-stage win for the first time since 1930 has energised a fanbase old and new and even led to predictions this golden generation can go all the way.
Can the U.S. win the World Cup? “Yes,” answered Fox TV pundit and former Sweden striker Zlatan Ibrahimovic after the game.
But how widely is that view shared? We asked our soccer experts if they believe the U.S. can win it all.
This is what they said.
There’s a chance…
Opta’s supercomputer puts American chances at precisely 2.84 per cent, so at this point you are welcome to borrow from Dumb and Dumber: “So you’re telling me there’s a chance?”
Yes, there’s a chance. They’re a good team. They’ve got a lot of good players — Alex Freeman and Malik Tillman have really impressed — and they’ve got one of the best coaches in the tournament. Pochettino has instilled the right blend of organisation and intensity.
That Opta algorithm doesn’t claim to be flawless, but it gives 10 teams (pretty much the obvious ones) a better chance. Probability-wise, they’re ahead of Belgium, Switzerland and Mexico but behind Norway, the Netherlands and Colombia. And that’s about fair enough at this stage, isn’t it?
One thing in their favour is the way the knockout bracket promises to shape up if, as looks likely, they win Group D. Ending up on the softer side of the draw helped England reach the World Cup semi-finals in 2018 and the Euro 2024 final. So yes, the U.S. could possibly go far. But winning it? I mean, there’s a chance…
Oliver Kay
Let’s enjoy it
No. But that doesn’t mean it’s not a team that can’t inspire a nation. The U.S. would potentially have to get through both Spain and France to get to a World Cup final. Those are the two best teams in the world. The final could see another of the top five teams in the sport: Argentina or England. That’s a tall ask of any team, let alone this U.S. team. But they don’t need to win a World Cup to change minds about American men’s soccer.
A run to a quarterfinal and a strong performance against the world’s best teams — like we saw with the 2002 team against Germany — would be plenty. For now, why bother looking that far down the road? The here and now is a lot of fun. Let’s just enjoy it as it comes.
Paul Tenorio
An instant shot of pride
No. But it is genuinely nice to see people so enthused about the sport. If the past week of celebrations for the New York Knicks and USMNT has reminded us of anything, it is how rapidly Americans can be drawn to a winning team, and the power of sport to imbue a region or nation with an instant shot of pride.
As for the team, fast starts in both games have carried the results well, but some of the frailties which emerged in the second half against Australia would likely lead to graver consequences against top-20-ranked sides later in the competition. However, the U.S. side of the draw appears rather friendly, so a couple of knockout games should not be beyond the team, which should take the national excitement about this competition towards fever pitch.
Adam Crafton
I have waited my entire life to see this
In a literal sense, do I expect Tim Ream to lift the golden trophy over his head on July 19 at MetLife Stadium? No. But this is the USMNT I have waited to see my entire life, that has captured lightning in a bottle between having its top players in form, a coach that instills belief and tactical acumen and incredible atmospheres worthy of a home World Cup wherever it goes.
A berth in the quarterfinals or semi-finals would be transformative for both the men’s national team and soccer in this country as a whole, and it seems very possible, and that would constitute the biggest “win” in U.S. men’s soccer history.
Austin Green
There’s a huge gulf to bridge
So theoretically, yes, they could win the World Cup. Pulisic, Balogun, Pepi, McKennie, Adams, Tillman, Robinson (etc, etc) are high-level players in Europe so the USMNT have the pedigree to be competitive against anybody. That doesn’t mean they can beat anybody but they’re well above the standards of nations who are making up the numbers in 2026.
The USMNT has won two from two (Photo: John Dorton/USSF/Getty Images)
That said, there’s a huge gulf between Paraguay and Australia and a team like France, for instance. There’s going to come a point when Pochettino’s defence (and goalkeeper) are examined by much better opponents, and that’s when I think problems will develop. This team has definite quarterfinal potential and the cards might fall in a way that lets them go further — but in no way do I expect them to be lifting the trophy on July 19. And that’s no criticism of them at all.
Phil Hay
Flowing like never before
Are they one of the top eight contenders? No. But they’re certainly more of a contender than we thought they were three weeks ago. They have a potentially forgiving path through the knockout bracket. They are absolutely playing their best soccer in years, maybe ever, flowing like never before.
The one main reason we shouldn’t get carried away is that they still haven’t beaten a true powerhouse. Precisely zero players on this team have ever beaten a top-10 team from Europe. Not in a friendly, not in an official competition, never. The U.S. program hasn’t done it in over a decade. That doesn’t mean it can’t happen — this group believes it can — but can it happen three or four times in a row?
That’s the difference between being a quarterfinal contender and a true World Cup title contender.
Henry Bushnell
This could finally stick
Simply put — not yet. But I will admit that this is absolutely the most excited I’ve felt about this team and their chances at making a miraculous run, no matter how unlikely.
Casual fans around me seem more excited about soccer than ever before – in a way that feels like it could finally stick. Sure, it took winning for Americans to buy in, but that boost of finally having the crowd behind you can really help propel this team forward.
Now, is that support enough to power through some of tournament favorites? I don’t think so. I am not convinced by these first two matches that they have what it takes to shut out a France, Spain or Argentina. I would be remiss to say, however, that a small voice in the back of my head isn’t repeating the words of Pochettino: “Why not us?”
Melanie Anzidei
Make the quarterfinals in style
Mauricio Pochettino has the USMNT purring. They progress the ball well down the wings, counter-press aggressively and have a centre-forward who knows how to maximise his attacking value with off-ball runs and clever link-up play. Squint, tilt your head a bit, and you can see shades of Pochettino’s Tottenham Hotspur side of 2015. Or maybe the red and white shirts remind you of his Southampton team of 2013.
They’re a well-drilled unit, with the wind — and host-nation advantage — in their sails.
There are a few questions about how the USMNT would match up against the heavy favourites for the tournament before people can truly get carried away, especially given that Christian Pulisic is battling a calf injury. But there’s good reason to believe they could make the quarterfinals in some style.
Carl Anka
Anything is possible
The U.S. is changing minds across the sports landscape in America. Two straight wins at a World Cup is such a rarity that it has fuelled hope that the co-hosts could actually feature at MetLife Stadium when the tournament concludes on July 19.
At this stage of the World Cup, anything is possible. That is especially the case for a co-host that is backed by delirious home crowds and home cooking. Pochettino’s men are also playing stress-free football. After routing Paraguay, the U.S. scratched their way to a win over Australia. The vibes couldn’t be better but vibes don’t win World Cups. I’m not convinced that this team can beat several elite national teams, suffer through adversity and shock the world.
Felipe Cardenas
No one will want to play the U.S.
If this World Cup has taught us anything, it is the big edge given by teams who have appointed elite managers. England have that with Thomas Tuchel and the U.S. do with Mauricio Pochettino. They have a distinct style, Pochettino’s clear mark on the team, and most importantly, they have the obvious buy-in of the players and fans. Winning the whole thing feels like a stretch, given the quality and experience in their squad, but no one will have watched their first two games and want to play against them.
Jack Pitt-Brooke
The crowd can be a huge advantage
The extra knockout round benefits the nations with deeper squads. I think the USMNT (and I mean the actual team) is capable of at least equalling its best showing in the modern era. Yes, the US reached the semi-final in the inaugural 1930 tournament but a more significant achievement was the quarterfinal appearance in 2002.
This team is better than that team, in my opinion, but the depth of possibilities in terms of potential winners might make that harder this time. Put it this way, though, I wouldn’t fancy playing the host if they reached the quarters — and from there, anything can happen. I am told the atmosphere in Seattle today was… spicy. The crowd can be a huge advantage.
Simon Hughes
A way off the elite technical levels
Mauricio Pochettino will be tapping into themes of belief in going all the way and confidence among the players and fans will grow the further they progress. But it would be a miracle among miracles for the U.S. to go all the way.
Of course, they can only beat the sides in front of them, and they have dispatched Paraguay — who were solid in qualifying — and Australia, who eased past Turkey, handily.
Nonetheless, they are a way off the kind of elite tactical and technical levels you need to genuinely challenge for a trophy. They will not roll over easily but I can’t see them getting beyond the quarterfinals.
Max Mathews