Going into the draw for this summer’s World Cup – which was held in December 2025 – the four highest-ranked FIFA teams were Spain (Euro 2024 champions), Argentina (World Cup and Copa America holders), France and England (in that order).
In the draw, first seeds Spain were put on a separate side of the knockout bracket from the second-ranked team, Argentina. This means if both win their groups as expected, they cannot meet until the final.
France, the third seed, and England, the fourth seed, were also placed on separate sides, meaning they will not meet until the final if they each finish top of their respective group.
France are on Spain’s side of the knockout bracket and England on Argentina’s, so these are possible semi-final ties – again, that’s subject to each team winning their group.
It is the first time the World Cup has adopted a seeding system for the top four nations, which is used in the new format of the UEFA Champions League and at tennis Grand Slams.
FIFA says this is to ensure competitive balance, although the World Cup knockouts are usually tightly contested anyway. For example, four of the past five finals have gone to extra time.
Rankings are by no means guarantees of success at World Cups. The four top-ranked teams heading into the 2022 Qatar tournament were – in descending order – Brazil, Belgium, Argentina and France.
Brazil were defeated in the quarter-finals by Croatia on penalties. Belgium, who were ranked second, did not make it out of the group stages. And the teams ranked third and fourth, Argentina and France, met in the final. The same could happen this year if France and England go all the way.
Seeding is also used to determine the groups. Teams for the expanded 48-team tournament were put into four pots of 12 based on their rankings, with the nine best-ranked teams in Pot One with the three host nations, and so on. The World Cup play-off qualifiers were put into Pot Four with the lowest-ranked teams. A nation from each pot is drawn to form a group of four.
FIFA world rankings are determined by the Elo model, developed by physics professor Arpad Elo, it assigns a numerical score to each competitor that goes up with a win and down with a loss. FIFA says it adds and subtracts points for matches measuring relative team strength, match importance, match result and expected match result.
In the rankings updated after the March/April international window, France overtook Spain and Argentina as the top team in the standings after wins over Brazil and Colombia. England remain fourth, with Portugal fifth and Brazil in sixth.