Disciplinary table to be turned upside down
This game pits Leeds United, one of the league’s most disciplined teams, against Brighton, one of the worst offenders in the top flight.
Only four sides have received fewer cautions than the 58 shown to Leeds in 36 games, and they have been shown just one red card.
In contrast, Brighton’s tally of 86 yellow cards is only beaten by the 91 that Tottenham Hotspur have picked up. To their credit, the Seagulls have yet to have a player dismissed during the campaign.
Routinely, I would expect this to be a fairly simple bet on Brighton to receive the most cards in the match, particularly as their 12.1 fouls per match average is the second-highest in the division.
However, Brighton seem to have cleaned up their act in recent weeks. They have received only one caution in four of their past five games.
The Seagulls also have a better disciplinary record in games officiated by Michael Oliver, and he takes charge of their trip to Elland Road.
They have picked up only two yellows in Oliver’s three Brighton assignments this term, while their fouls per tackle count of 0.44 is the best of any English side under the referee’s watch.
Leeds, on the other hand, have a worse record when Oliver is the man with the whistle. They concede 11.67 fouls per game – compared with Brighton’s 8.67 – while their fouls per tackle average is also higher at 0.57. In three games, the Whites have collected seven yellow cards.
When the two teams met in the reverse fixture, Brighton won 3-0 and didn’t receive a single caution, whereas Leeds picked up one. Ironically, Oliver was also the referee on that occasion.
I think it’s worth taking a chance on those trends to continue. For my first bet of the day, I’m backing Leeds to pick up more cards than Brighton in this game at 9/4.