Jack Taylor celebrates after Ipswich’s 2-1 comeback win at Charlton last week. (Image: Ross Halls)
What’s at stake
Coventry are confirmed champions. Behind them, four teams – Ipswich, Millwall, Middlesbrough and Southampton – all remain in with a shot at joining them in securing automatic promotion to the Premier League.
Millwall dropping points at Leicester last Friday (1-1), followed by Town drawing at West Brom on Saturday (0-0) leaves Kieran McKenna’s men in pole position.
Win at St Mary’s tonight and Ipswich know that second spot is virtually sealed. In that scenario, only Millwall would be able to match their points total going into the final weekend of the regular season and the Blues have a far superior goal difference (currently 30 v 13) to the Lions.
Draw or lose tonight, however, and Ipswich would go into their home finale against mid-table QPR on Saturday lunchtime knowing that a victory would likely be needed to get the job done given Millwall host already relegated Oxford.
Southampton must win tonight to keep their top two hopes still alive ahead of a final day trip to mid-table Preston. Anything but an Ipswich win would keep Middlesbrough still in the hunt ahead of their final day trip to play-off hopefuls Wrexham.
It really is crunch time.
Southampton gave Man City a major scare in Saturday’s FA Cup semi-final at Wembley. (Image: PA)
Saints on the march
Southampton initially struggled to adjust following their drop down from the Premier League. Tonda Eckert replaced Will Still in the hot seat back in early November though and their form from mid-January onwards has been remarkable.
The south coast club are currently on a 17-game unbeaten run in the league (W13 D4). That impressive streak includes coming from 3-0 down to beat Leicester 4-3 and thumping wins against QPR (5-0 at home) and Wrexham (5-1 away).
In amongst that, they went on a superb FA Cup too. The scalps of Fulham and Arsenal were both taken. The Saints then pushed Manchester City all the way in a semi-final at Wembley on Saturday, taking the lead in the 79th minute before conceding two late goals.
Ex-Town midfielder Flynn Downes is suspended. Brazilian left-winger Leo Scienza (7G 10A) is in fine form though, while Eckert will be able to rotate without a loss in quality. No doubt about it, this is a tough test.
Possible Saints XI (4-2-3-1): Peretz; Bree, Harwood-Bellis, Wood, Manning; Charles, Jander; Matsuki, Azaz, Scienza; Larin.
Christian Walton was involved in both of Ipswich’s promotions in ’23 and ’24. (Image: Ross Halls)
Reason for optimism
Let’s not forget that Ipswich have lost just one of their last 13 games (W7 D5).
Ipswich’s recent East Anglian derby win at Norwich was followed by a flat midweek defeat at Portsmouth. We have to hope that the Saints will hit a similar wall, physically and mentally, after their Wembley efforts. They did look slightly jaded in last Tuesday night’s 2-2 home draw with Bristol City.
There’s also an argument that the Blues are better suited to taking on the division’s better teams in toe-to-toe football matches rather than being tasked with breaking down stubborn deep blocks. League doubles against Coventry and Norwich back that up.
For those that put stock in such things, Ipswich’s recent record at St Mary’s has been pretty good. Sam Morsy scored a last minute equaliser there in the Premier League, while Omari Hutchinson got the winner there early in the Championship promotion campaign.
McKenna, many of his staff and several of his squad can obviously call upon their experiences of ’23 and ’24. Christian Walton, Leif Davis, Jack Taylor, Wes Burns and George Hirst all fall in that camp.
Tonight has obvious parallels with the now iconic trip to Coventry in April 2024. Town had just drawn a game on the road (3-3 at Hull) and it was the penultimate game of the season, midweek, against a good side that had just come within a whisker of reaching the FA Cup Final. Cameron Burgess’ second half winner put the Blues on the brink ahead of a home finale. Could history repeat?
Jaden Philogene looks set to come back into Ipswich’s starting XI. (Image: Ross Halls)
Who plays?
McKenna made just two changes to his team at The Hawthorns off the back of last Wednesday night’s 2-1 comeback win at Charlton. He admits there were some tired legs come the end and will ‘need to freshen up some positions’ tonight.
Davis has missed the last two with a hamstring problem and faces another late fitness test. Burns made a cameo comeback at the weekend after missing six with a calf injury. It’s hard to envisage either in the starting XI.
I can see Ben Johnson being deployed on the right wing just as he was at Norwich earlier this month. The below XI would see the same defence and midfield, but a completely changed front four.
Possible Town XI (4-2-3-1): Walton; Furlong, O’Shea, Kipre, Greaves; Matusiwa, Taylor; Johnson, Nunez, Philogene; Hirst.
Stu’s prediction
A draw isn’t much good for either team and both are primed to play brave, front-footed football. It should make for a cracker.
I know I’ve drawn parallels with the Coventry game from spring 2024, but maybe it will be more like that 3-3 Hull thriller – two talented teams with similar principles going hammer and tongs.
Neither want a point, but there’s every chance they could cancel each other out. I’ll say 2-2, setting up a nervy final day!