Our betting expert expects Bologna to extend their seven-match away winning streak, but that may not suffice for progression to the semi-finals.
Best Bets for Aston Villa vs BolognaOver 2.5 total goals at odds of 1.80 on bet365Both teams to score – Yes at odds of 1.80 on bet365Bologna to win or draw at odds of 2.20 on bet365
All odds are courtesy of bet365, correct at the time of publishing and subject to change.
Tight finish at Villa Park
Aston Villa hold a commanding lead in this quarter-final tie. The 1982 European Cup winners have excelled in their third consecutive European campaign, winning 10 of their 11 Europa League games.
Two of Villa’s last three games have gone over 2.5 total goals. Yet, only one of their last four competitive home fixtures has crossed that mark – a 4-1 defeat to Chelsea in early March.
Bologna were particularly impressive in their previous Europa League away game, the Round of 16 second leg at Stadio Olimpico. They needed extra time to ultimately eliminate Roma 5-4 on aggregate.
Three of Bologna’s last five competitive matches have produced over 2.5 total goals. Their away form is outstanding. It would be no surprise to see them breach Villa’s defence. Both sides are expected to contribute to a game that clears the 2.5-goal tally.
Aston Villa vs Bologna Betting Tip 1: Over 2.5 total goals at odds of 1.80 on bet365Open contest on the cards
Villa are constant goalscorers. However, they needed an own goal from Murillo to take a point from Nottingham Forest last time out. The Europa League is a different proposition altogether.
Emery’s side have scored 20 goals in their last 11 UEL games – their longest European scoring run since 2007/08. Goals are constantly featured in their games. They have scored in each of their last seven matches across all competitions.
Meanwhile, Bologna have netted in each of their last three games. The last time they fired a blank was in the 2-0 home defeat to Lazio before the international break.
Vincenzo Italiano knows how to set up his attack. The Rossoblu are confident scorers away from home and should find the net, perhaps more than once. Both teams are expected to score in a tightly contested quarter-final second-leg tie at Villa Park.
Aston Villa vs Bologna Betting Tip 2: Both teams to score – Yes at odds of 1.80 on bet365Bologna to push the Villans all the way
Aston Villa are currently enjoying their longest-ever European winning streak, with eight successive victories. Yet, their recent visit to City Ground exposed vulnerabilities Bologna will be eager to exploit.
Villa’s only home defeat against an Italian side came in 1982/83, a 2-1 loss to Juventus in European Cup Winners’ Cup quarter-final first leg. Since then, they have won four of five at Villa Park, keeping a clean sheet in all five. However, Bologna arrive full of confidence, boosted by their strong away form and recent win over Lecce.
Bologna have won both European ties in which they trailed by two or more goals after the first leg. Both these games came in the 1990/91 Cup, against Heart of Midlothian and Admira Wacker.
The Rossoblu’s excellent away record should guide them to a narrow victory here. However, Villa’s home advantage and individual quality should see them progress on aggregate, even if they draw or lose on the night.
Aston Villa vs Bologna Betting Tip 3: Bologna to win or draw at odds of 2.20 on bet365Our analysis: Form of both teamsScore prediction: Aston Villa 1-2 BolognaGoalscorers prediction: Aston Villa: Ollie Watkins; Bologna: Riccardo Orsolini, Nikola Moro
Aston Villa are one foot in the Europa League semi-finals. A second-half brace from Ollie Watkins secured a comfortable two-goal lead ahead of the return leg. It was Bologna’s first ever home defeat in European competition by at least two goals.
Unai Emery’s side now return to Villa Park for the second leg. It is their first home match since a 2-0 win over West Ham United on 22 March. Most recently, they travelled to Nottingham and salvaged a point in an underwhelming display.
Bologna make the long trip to Birmingham following a 2-0 win over Lecce in Serie A. Goals from Remo Freuler and Riccardo Orsolini in either half sealed all three points for the eighth-placed Rossoblu.
Bologna’s only two defeats in their last 16 European games have both come against Villa. That makes for an ominous visit to Villa Park, where they lost 1-0 earlier in the league phase after John McGinn’s strike.
Yet, the Rossoblu are in impeccable form away from home. They have won each of their last seven competitive trips, including all three in the Europa League.
Villa could suffer their first-ever defeat against Bologna in four meetings. However, that might not be enough to send the Rossoblu through.
Probable lineups for Aston Villa vs Bologna
Aston Villa expected lineup: Martinez, Digne, Torres, Konsa, Cash, Onana, Tielemans, McGinn, Rogers, Buendia, Watkins
Bologna expected lineup: Ravaglia, Mario, Lucumi, Heggem, Miranda, Feguson, Freuler, Pobega, Bernardeschi, Castro, Rowe