Forest could become first English team to lose four home matches in a European campaign
Porto have lost just four times in all competitions this season
Recommended bet: Porto Draw no bet
An extraordinary Martim Fernandes own goal in Portugal means Nottingham Forest hold a slight advantage in their Europa League quarter-final with Porto, with the tie finely poised at 1-1 ahead of Thursday’s second leg.
The Reds are favourites to progress through to the semi-finals, but their focus is still locked on the Premier League relegation battle they are embroiled in and Porto look a huge price to silence the City Ground.
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Team news
New Zealand striker Chris Wood should lead the line for Forest as he continues his return from injury but John Victor, Jair Cunha, Nicolo Savona and Willy Boly remain sidelined.
Fernandes, the scorer of last week’s outrageous own goal, missed Porto’s weekend win over Estoril through injury and will be assessed, while Nehuen Perez, Samu Aghehowa and Luuk de Jong are definite absentees for the visitors.
The stats
Forest have won just one of their last 11 home matches, with the Reds’ last win at the City Ground coming on January 29th, seven home games ago.
Porto are unbeaten in eight matches, winning five and the Dragons have lost only four of their 46 games under Francesco Farioli.
Forest have lost their last two Europa League home matches, while Porto have won nine of their last 13 away games.
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Prediction
Forest will have been delighted to return from Portugal with this tie all-square, but the City Ground is not the fortress it was last season and Porto are far from out of this tie.
The Reds have already lost three home games in the Europa League – one more would make them the first English team to suffer four own-patch defeats in a single European campaign – while they have managed only one win in 11 matches at the City Ground.
Add in the fact they host relegation rivals Burnley in a crucial clash on Sunday and it is hard to have any faith Vitor Pereira’s side can progress into the semi-finals.
Porto were the better side last week, winning the expected-goals (xG) battle 2.1-0.5 and only conceding due to Fernandes’ long-range own goal, and they are sitting pretty at the Liga Portugal summit.
Francesco Farioli’s possession-based style has led to excellent results. The Dragons have lost just four of their 46 matches under the Italian and it is hard to envisage a fifth defeat arriving on Thursday.
Porto are a classy outfit and they could well prove to be too strong for distracted Forest.
Back Porto Draw no bet at 6/5 with LiveScore Bet