Liverpool will try for the league double over rivals Everton in Sunday’s Merseyside Derby.
Arne Slot’s side captured a 2-0 win over Fulham last week. The current title holders sit fifth in the table and three points outside the top four.
Everton drew 2-2 at Brentford last week with a late equalizer. David Moyes’ side has dropped all three points only once in their previous five to reach eighth in the table.
Check out the Premier League odds and my Everton vs Liverpool prediction.
Everton vs Liverpool: Premier League Odds
Liverpool vs Everton: Prediction
Based on Everton’s recent attacking success as an underdog and potential positive regression, my Everton vs Liverpool prediction is Everton Over 1.5 Goals (+155).
Over 1.5 @ +155
Under 1.5 @ -220
We’ve seen improvement from the Everton attack of late. Over their last eight league fixtures, Moyes’ attack has cleared this benchmark five times.
That sample includes four successes over the previous five. Only a trip to Arsenal saw the Toffees fail to score. However, they failed to do so while generating 1.2 expected goals.
For the season, Everton’s attack has run slightly unlucky. Through 32 fixtures, Everton scored 39 goals off 42 expected, per Understat. At home, they’ve scored 21 goals off 22 xG.
At home, Everton has failed to score only four times in 16 matches. However, two of those fixtures saw the attack clear one expected goal.
Everton went off as a home underdog to Chelsea back on Matchday 31. The attack scored three times off 1.2 xG and 2.03 post-shot expected goals, per FotMob.
Liverpool’s defensive metrics fluctuated this year. However, they’ve shown themselves vulnerable as road favorites against attacks like Everton.
Recently, Liverpool traveled to Fulham. They surrendered two goals off 1.2 post-shot xG to an attack one spot ahead of Everton in the xG rankings.
Brighton also scored twice against Liverpool, creating 2.5 post-shot xG in the process. Without adjusting for the opponent, Liverpool have allowed 1.6 xG per 90 minutes away from home.
Add in the fact Liverpool face a midweek Champions League fixture, and I predict Everton will clear this benchmark at a higher frequency than these odds suggest.