The Gunners hold a nine-point advantage, but Manchester City frequently finish seasons strongly, meaning the title race could still change.
Premier League WinnerOddsArsenal1/8Manchester City5/1
Odds courtesy of bet365. Correct at time of publishing and subject to change.
Arsenal – The leaders
Mikel Arteta and his players are in a strong position as Arsenal aim for their first Premier League title in over two decades. They are nine points ahead with seven matches remaining, and they have been incredibly strong during the 2025/26 season. There are some important factors to consider, though.
The previous two weeks have not been easy for the Gunners. First, they were defeated by Manchester City in the Carabao Cup final, and then they suffered a surprising defeat against Southampton in the FA Cup. Their ambitions of winning four trophies were reduced to two within two short weeks.
Additionally, there is a psychological element as the season’s final stages begin. Arteta has a poor record in April, winning just 41% of games since taking over. It’s a big reason why they’ve missed out on the title before – falling at the final hurdles.
Injuries are also beginning to accumulate, and they travel to the Etihad Stadium on April 19th for a crucial fixture in the title race. There is a possibility that their advantage could be reduced to just three points entering their final five matches. Bournemouth, their next opponents, defeated Arsenal twice last season, so they can cause problems.
Despite these concerns, Arteta will have been delighted to see his team defeat Sporting Clube de Portugal in the Champions League on Tuesday. They secured the victory late in the match, though it wasn’t a perfect performance. However, it demonstrated their resilience once again. It could provide a significant psychological advantage before a sequence of matches that will define their season.
Despite their recent setbacks, we’re still backing Arsenal to get the job done. They have demonstrated excellent character this season, and they should be capable of accumulating enough points to clinch the title.
Manchester City – The chasers
While Arsenal have struggled at the end of previous campaigns, Manchester City tend to do the opposite. They’ve regularly finished strongly and have secured numerous titles because of that. The Cityzens will truly back themselves to surpass their rivals come the end of May.
Victory in last month’s cup final gives them an advantage, as well. They don’t have a UCL campaign to manage simultaneously, so their squad isn’t as fatigued. With a game in hand and some impressive squad depth, we’re backing the Manchester club to reduce the points difference.
They were given a further boost over the weekend as they dominated Liverpool 4-0 in the FA Cup, meaning their confidence will be high. Pep Guardiola’s side now face Chelsea and the Gunners in consecutive Sunday fixtures, and six points would be crucial for them. However, defeats would leave the current league leaders almost guaranteed to win the trophy.
Clashes against Burnley, Everton, Brentford, Bournemouth, and Manchester City are capable of winning all of them. Reducing Arsenal’s advantage during April would not only improve their own position but also put pressure on the league leaders. Arsenal have previously been labelled as a team that fails under pressure, and that will no doubt be in the backs of their minds.
It could be a fascinating conclusion to the season as Arsenal attempt to win their first title since 2004, but the next two weeks will determine that outcome. Ultimately, the situation remains under Arsenal’s control; however, their challengers will be eager to maintain the pressure.
We expect Manchester City to finish the season strongly, exactly as we have witnessed during previous years. Ultimately, though, we don’t expect Arsenal to drop enough points for the defending champions to take advantage.
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