Europa League Quarter-Final Betting Preview: Porto vs Nottingham Forest
Portuguese Primeira Liga leaders Porto host Premier League team Nottingham Forest in the first leg of this Europa League quarter-final at Estádio do Dragão, with kick-off set for 12:00 on Thursday 9 April.
Tricky Trees Look Value for This Clash
The best plan could involve backing Nottingham Forest with a +0.25 Asian Handicap at -102 when clashing with Porto. Our stake is split between 0 and +0.5, allowing us to land a return in the event of a draw.
Forest Picked Up Big Win
Hosts Porto come into this match top of the Primeira Liga, five points clear of Sporting with a game in hand, while Nottingham Forest sit 16th in the Premier League, just three points above the relegation zone.
Porto faced Famalicão at home when last in action. It was a 2-2 Primeira Liga draw at Estádio do Dragão. Francesco Farioli’s team recorded three shots on target and had 51% possession, while Alberto Costa and Seko Fofana each scored one goal.
Forest triumphed in their previous game. It was away from home in the Premier League where Tottenham were beaten 3-0 at Tottenham Hotspur Stadium. The Midlands outfit had 42% possession and recorded seven shots on goal, while Igor Jesus, Morgan Gibbs-White and Taiwo Awoniyi were all on target.
In the Europa League round of 16, Porto won 4-1 on aggregate over Stuttgart, while Forest beat Danish Superliga side FC Midtjylland on penalties after a 2-2 aggregate draw.
Head-to-Head Statistics
Forest had the upper hand when the sides last met, recording a 2-0 home win over Porto at the City Ground in the league phase in October.
Porto – Last 10 League & Europa League Games
7 wins and 3 draws, averaging 1.9 goals from 4.9 shots on goal and 12.7 attempts. Porto have had 48.0% possession, 381.4 passes and 4.6 corners per game. On average, their opponents have scored 0.8 goals from 3.5 shots on goal and 10.2 attempts, while being awarded 4.2 corners.
Top scorer William Gomes has found the net 4 times, with Seko Fofana, Victor Froholdt and Oskar Pietuszewski getting 3 each. Leading assistor is Victor Froholdt with 3, while goalkeeper Diogo Costa has 4 clean sheets.
Nottingham Forest – Last 10 League & Europa League Games
Forest have won 3, lost 4 and drawn 3, with an average of 17.4 attempts, 5.5 shots on goal and 1.5 goals. Vitor Pereira’s side average 47.4% possession, 432.7 passes, 6.1 corners awarded and 4.3 corners against them, while 0.9 goals have been conceded from 3.5 shots on goal and 10.8 attempts.
Morgan Gibbs-White has landed 4 goals, Igor Jesus 2, with Taiwo Awoniyi and two others scoring 1. Igor Jesus has clocked up 3 assists, with Matz Sels and Stefan Ortega collectively keeping 3 clean sheets in the previous 10 games.
Predicted & Confirmed Lineups
Porto predicted lineup (4-3-3): Diogo Costa (GK), Alberto Costa, Jan Bednarek, Jakub Kiwior, Zaidu Sanusi, Victor Froholdt, Alan Varela, Seko Fofana, William Gomes, Terem Moffi, Borja Sainz.
Nottingham Forest predicted lineup (4-4-2): Matz Sels (GK), Nikola Milenkovic, Murillo, Morato, Neco Williams, Ibrahim Sangare, Elliot Anderson, Callum Hudson-Odoi, Nicolas Dominguez, Morgan Gibbs-White, Igor Jesus.
Porto vs Nottingham Forest Prediction & Betting Tips
Our expert Porto vs Nottingham Forest tips include betting advice on all fronts — from a main match prediction and player prop picks to corners guidance, a correct score selection and a ready-made bet builder.
Match Prediction
Nottingham Forest look a quality wager for this Europa League encounter and we can bet the away team at -102 with a +0.25 goal handicap. The latest numbers imply that the Tricky Trees can swerve defeat and claim a victory.
The team at Sportsgambler.com are right across the latest Europa League injury news and the form guide also informs our football predictions. This data is combined with the latest stats.
Key Porto vs Nottingham Forest Europa League & league stats:
The +0.25 line has been covered by Forest in 4 of their last 5 games.The +0.25 line has been covered by Forest in 6 of their last 10 games.The +0.25 line has been covered by Forest in 3 consecutive games.
Forest +0.25 Probability
The top betting apps make it a 50.5% chance that our pick is settled as a winner. After careful examination, our experts have this probability close to 60%. It is therefore regarded as a value wager.
Looking for Bigger Odds?
Placing a Bet Builder is a recommended option if you want to bet on Forest to cover the line but want more juice from your wager. Choose the various legs that you want to add in.
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Our Match Prediction
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Published 18:28, 07 April 2026
Player Prop Picks
Morgan Gibbs-White (Forest) has managed four goals in his past five matches on the road. It’s worth a gamble on the +300 for him to be Anytime Goalscorer as there’s plenty of juice in these betting odds.
Latest Morgan Gibbs-White Player Prop Odds
Goalscorer
Shots
Pick odds and lines correct at publication. Live market odds are updated regularly and may differ. T&Cs apply. 18+ (or legal age) | Gamble Responsibly.
Corners Prediction
In their past seven games, Porto have had less than 5.5 corners. There’s the opportunity to go under the Porto Team Corners line and we’re expecting this to happen, with odds of -125 available.
Europa League & League Games
Porto
Total
8.80
4.60
4.20
Home
8.50
5.40
3.10
Away
8.10
4.80
3.30
Forest
Total
10.40
6.10
4.30
Home
10.10
6.10
4.00
Away
10.80
5.40
5.40
Latest Corner Odds
Total Corners
Porto Corners
Forest Corners
Most Corners
Pick odds and lines correct at publication. Live market odds are updated regularly and may differ. T&Cs apply. 18+ (or legal age) | Gamble Responsibly.
Porto vs Nottingham Forest Odds
The odds and lines below are updated regularly and may differ from the prices shown in our picks, which are captured at the time of publication.
Bookies Think Porto Most Likely to Win
Porto are available at +106 to come away with a triumph in this Europa League quarter-final, meaning a 49% likelihood of winning according to the published betting odds. The market implies that Nottingham Forest are the most unlikely to win at +255.
It sometimes pays to take the Draw No Bet option meaning there’s a safety net if the game ends all square. Porto can be backed at -213 or alternatively Forest are on offer at +145.
The Total Goals market is a great option and Under 2.5 Goals has the shortest odds right now. For those wanting to bet on Both Teams to Score, you won’t find much between Yes and No.
There’s lots to like about our recommended football betting sites and that includes the hundreds of markets available for each Europa League game. You are spoilt for choice when it comes to available options.
Full-Time Result
Half-Time Result
Double Chance
Draw No Bet
Asian Handicap
Total Goals
Both Teams to Score
Terem Moffi Favourite to Score the First Goal
Terem Moffi is favourite to be First Goalscorer at +475. If you want to back him to score the last goal, you can get similar odds.
Player Goals
Terem Moffi (Porto)
Deniz Gul (Porto)
Borja Sainz (Porto)
Igor Jesus Maciel da Cruz (Forest)
Player Shots
Terem Moffi (Porto)
Igor Jesus Maciel da Cruz (Forest)
Morgan Gibbs-White (Forest)
Deniz Gul (Porto)
Live market odds and lines updated regularly. All odds subject to change. T&Cs apply. 18+ (or legal age) | Gamble Responsibly.
Team Stats
Latest Europa League and domestic league stats. Full Time Result, Goals, Corners and Possession.
Porto Stats
Nottingham Forest Stats
7 wins and 3 draws in the previous 10 matches
8 wins and 2 draws in the previous 10 home matches
3 wins, 4 defeats and 3 draws in the previous 10 matches
5 wins, 4 defeats and 1 draw in the previous 10 away matches
An average of 1.90 goals scored and 0.80 conceded in the previous 10 matches
An average of 2.30 goals scored and 0.60 conceded in the previous 10 home matches
An average of 2.70 goals per game in the previous 10 matches
An average of 2.90 goals per game in the previous 10 home matches
BTTS Yes in 6 of the previous 10 matches
BTTS Yes in 5 of the previous 10 home matches
Over 2.5 Goals in 6 of the previous 10 matches
Over 2.5 Goals in 6 of the previous 10 home matches
An average of 1.50 goals scored and 0.90 conceded in the previous 10 matches
An average of 2.00 goals scored and 1.30 conceded in the previous 10 away matches
An average of 2.40 goals per game in the previous 10 matches
An average of 3.30 goals per game in the previous 10 away matches
BTTS Yes in 4 of the previous 10 matches
BTTS Yes in 6 of the previous 10 away matches
Over 2.5 Goals in 6 of the previous 10 matches
Over 2.5 Goals in 8 of the previous 10 away matches
An average of 4.60 corners awarded and 4.20 corners conceded in the last 10 matches
An average of 5.40 corners awarded and 3.10 corners against in the last 10 home matches
An average of 8.80 corners awarded in the last 10 matches
An average of 8.50 corners awarded in the last 10 home matches
Had the most corners in 7 and least corners in 3 of the last 10 matches
Had the most corners in 8 and least corners in 2 of the last 10 home matches
An average of 6.10 corners awarded and 4.30 corners conceded in the last 10 matches
An average of 5.40 corners awarded and 5.40 corners against in the last 10 away matches
An average of 10.40 corners awarded in the last 10 matches
An average of 10.80 corners awarded in the last 10 away matches
Had the most corners in 7 and least corners in 2 of the last 10 matches
Had the most corners in 3 and least corners in 5 of the last 10 away matches
An average of 48.00% possession in the last 10 matches
An average of 54.30% possession in the last 10 home matches
Most possession in 5 of the last 10 matches
Most possession in 7 of the last 10 home matches
An average of 47.40% possession in the last 10 matches
An average of 41.40% possession in the last 10 away matches
Most possession in 3 of the last 10 matches
Most possession in 1 of the last 10 away matches
Expert Analysis by Daniel Hughes
International Football Analyst
About the Analyst
Our football previews are produced by a specialised team of analysts, former odds compilers and sports journalists. Picks are research-driven and reviewed for accuracy and editorial consistency under the oversight of our Football Editorial Betting Panel and Editor-in-Chief.
Europa League Predictions Methodology
Our Europa League match previews and predictions blends squad rotation context and travel schedules with recent form, standings and odds movement. We combine team news, injuries and lineups with metrics such as xG, xGA, xA and PPDA to assess chance quality, defensive strength and pressing intensity across the continent’s secondary club competition.
Full Methodology & Data Sources
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Transparency & Safety
This preview was last updated on Apr 8, 00:56 to reflect the latest team news, injury reports, predicted and confirmed lineups, advanced performance metrics and market movement.
All analysis is produced by professional analysts and reviewed by our Football Editorial Betting Panel for accuracy and consistency.
Historical performance for our main match predictions is tracked and updated regularly for transparency.
Important: Betting should be treated as entertainment and involves risk. Past results are not indicative of future performance. Only wager what you can afford to lose.
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