Instead of allaying fears of a dramatic late-season collapse, Mikel Arteta’s Arsenal doubled down on the south coast after succumbing in the Carabao Cup final.
The Gunners’ dreams of an unprecedented quadruple were dashed by Manchester City at Wembley, but their post-international break defeat at Southampton means a treble was only a brief fantasy.
The Saints’ 2–1 triumph on Saturday night knocked Arsenal out of the FA Cup and only fueled speculation that Arteta’s men are primed to ’bottle’ what would be a first Premier League title success in a little over 20 years.
Arsenal still boast a healthy nine-point lead over City, who have played a game less, but momentum has undeniably shifted towards the Sky Blues after a pair of domestic cup disappointments in north London.
Here’s how back-to-back defeats have impacted Arsenal’s Premier League title chances, according to Opta’s supercomputer.
Supercomputer Predicts 2025–26 Premier League Title Winner
Manchester City are aiming to reduce Arsenal’s lead over the coming weeks. | Marc Atkins/Getty Images
Position
Team
Current Points
Expected Points
Title Chances
1.
Arsenal
70
84.57
97%
2.
Man City
61
74.82
3%
Manchester City followed up their Carabao Cup capture with an emphatic beatdown of Liverpool in their FA Cup quarterfinal, with Erling Haaland scoring a hat-trick in a 4–0 rout.
Despite the shift in mood, Opta hasn’t yet panicked. Arsenal are still the firm favorites to win the Premier League, with their chances of lifting the title only dropping by 0.77% since the division’s top two last played a league game.
City have a mere 3% chance of regaining their crown, but that likelihood will steeply rise should they beat Arsenal when the pair face off at the Etihad Stadium on April 19.
Supercomputer Predicts 2025–26 Champions League Race
Manchester United are set to return to the Champions League. | Ash Donelon/Manchester United/Getty Images
Position
Team
Current Points
Expected Points
Champions League Chances
3.
Man Utd
55
66.06
86.33%
4.
Aston Villa
54
65.12
77.38%
5.
Liverpool
49
60.22
21.95%
6.
Chelsea
48
58.33
10.12%
7.
Brentford
46
55.67
1.81%
8.
Everton
46
55.33
1.57%
Arsenal’s cup woes, of course, don’t have much bearing on the race to secure a spot in next season’s Champions League, with three more places likely to be up for grabs behind the top two.
Aston Villa were the big winners of the previous Premier League gameweek, capitalizing on Liverpool and Chelsea’s respective defeats to Brighton & Hove Albion and Everton by beating West Ham United 2–0.
Their chances of securing a Champions League spot have increased to 77.38%, with third-place Manchester United all but assured of a return to the biggest European stage. The Red Devils continue to fly high under Michael Carrick, and are seven points clear of Chelsea in sixth.
The Blues, who reached the FA Cup semifinals courtesy of a 7–0 win over Port Vale, have seen their hopes of securing a top-five finish decline to just 10.12%. Still, they’re the most likely to usurp Liverpool over the next seven games, with Brentford and Everton only boasting small hopes of stunning first-time qualifications.
Supercomputer Predicts 2025–26 Relegation Battle
Roberto De Zerbi is the man tasked with saving Spurs. | Catherine Steenkeste/Getty Images
Position
Team
Current Points
Expected Points
Relegation Chances
15.
Leeds
33
41.94
6.61%
16.
Nottingham Forest
32
40.99
9.04%
17.
Tottenham
30
38.52
26.33%
18.
West Ham
29
36.94
58.14%
19.
Burnley
20
26.13
99.91%
20.
Wolves
17
24.98
99.90%
Tottenham Hotspur have turned to Roberto De Zerbi to get them out of the mire, after Igor Tudor’s 44-day reign ended with Spurs just a point clear of the relegation zone.
Despite De Zerbi’s arrival, Spurs’ chances of going down more than doubled to 26.33% after losing 3–0 at home to relgation rivals Nottingham Forest, whose survival hopes were boosted immensely.
With Wolverhampton Wanderers and Burnley all but condemned, West Ham remain Opta’s favorite to join them in the Championship next season.
Leeds United’s six-game winless run means they haven’t escaped the dogfight yet, but home games against the bottom two still to come mean Daniel Farke’s side have a great chance to earn the necessary points to keep them in the league.
READ THE LATEST PREMIER LEAGUE NEWS, ANALYSIS AND INSIGHT FROM SI FC