Millwall and Middlesbrough go head-to-head at the Riverside at lunchtime today. (Image: PA)
Fixtures in full
Middlesbrough: Millwall (H), Swansea (A), Portsmouth (H), Ipswich (A), Sheffield Wednesday (H), Watford (H), Wrexham (A).
Ipswich: Birmingham (H), Norwich (A), Portsmouth (A), Middlesbrough (H), Charlton (A), West Brom (A), Southampton (A), QPR (H).
Millwall: Middlesbrough (A), Norwich (H), West Brom (A), QPR (H), Stoke (A), Leicester (A), Oxford (H).
Middlesbrough have a home game against long-relegated Sheffield Wednesday to come. (Image: PA)
Where opponents sit
Average position of the teams left to face… Middlesbrough: 12th, Ipswich: 13th, Millwall: 15th.
It’s often said that you’re best off facing teams with little to play for at the business end of the season though. The hope is that opposition are ‘on the beach’.
Ipswich face two promotion chasing sides (Boro and Southampton) and two relegation fighters (Portsmouth and West Brom).
Middlesbrough face three promotion contenders (Millwall, Ipswich and Wrexham), and one relegation battler (Portsmouth).
Millwall face one promotion challenger (Middlesbrough) and take on three teams looking to beat the drop (West Brom, Leicester and Oxford).
Middlesbrough have the most top half form sides (based on the last seven games) left to play (5). Ipswich have the most bottom half form sides in their run-in (5).
Boro, it should be noted, are the only one of the three with a game left against long-relegated Sheffield Wednesday – the closest thing you can get to a guaranteed three points.
Verdict: Millwall probably have the most favourable run-in when it comes to opposition. Just.
Ivan Azon celebrates after giving Ipswich the lead at Sheffield Wednesday recently. (Image: Ross Halls)
Form guide
Seven games left for most of the teams at the top. So let’s have a look at the form table for that same number of games.
Ipswich sit third with 15 points (W4 D2 L1), Millwall are sixth with 13 points (W5 D1 L2) and Middlesbrough are 11th with 10 points (W2 D3 L2).
Extrapolate each team’s recent form over their equivalent remaining matches and the final table would read: 1st Coventry (98pts), 2nd Ipswich (84pts), 3rd Millwall (82pts), 4th Middlesbrough (81pts), 5th Southampton (80pts), =6th Hull/Wrexham (78pts).
Verdict: Ipswich are in the best form and, were it not for a couple of refereeing injustices, would fare even better here.
Millwall would finish second if every team replicated their reverse fixture results. (Image: PA)
Head-to-head
What about if every team replicated their result from the reverse fixture over their remaining matches? Another arbitrary measure, but it helps add to the picture.
Using this equation, Hull are due to take the most points over the run-in (17), ahead of Millwall (16), Ipswich (14) and Middlesbrough (13).
That would leave the top of the table looking like: 1st Coventry (96pts), Millwall (85pts), 3rd Middlesbrough (84pts), 4th Ipswich (83pts), 5th Hull (83pts), 6th Wrexham (71pts).
Verdict: Backs up the feeling that Millwall have the best fixtures ahead. Ipswich will feel they are much better now than they were when facing the likes of Birmingham and Charlton earlier in the season though.
Four of Middlesbrough’s remaining games are at home. (Image: PA)
Miles to travel
Ipswich have the most away games left (5), but two of them are their shortest trips of the season (Norwich and Charlton). Boro have the fewest away games (3), but all of them are a fair distance (Swansea, Ipswich and Wrexham).
Middlesbrough won’t be happy about having to make the long trip to Suffolk for a 12pm kick-off. Millwall can feel the same about their 12.30pm start up at the Riverside today.
Millwall have the most miles left to travel (1,421), ahead of Ipswich (1,218), Hull (1,198) and then Middlesbrough (900).
Verdict: Boro having the most home games left sees them edge this one.
Ipswich Town will soon have two games in hand on their promotion rivals. (Image: PA)
Order/number of games
On five occasions, Millwall will play ahead of both Ipswich and Boro. Statistics show that going first in the shoot-out provides an advantage in terms of being able to ramp up the pressure.
Ipswich, meanwhile, will have two occasions – Portsmouth and Southampton away – where all eyes will be on them as they catch up games in hand. How will they cope with that extra pressure?
The Blues, of course, have one more game to squeeze in than Boro and Millwall. You could argue that a busier schedule might prove to be a physical and mental drain. Equally, there’s a chance it could help build momentum and prevent over-thinking.
Verdict: Impossible to say. Millwall possibly have the advantage here. The psychology of the run-in is going to be fascinating.