The simple fact is: Newcastle are tired.
Since July 2025, Eddie Howe’s team have played 57 games, more than any other side in the Premier League, stacking up an eye-watering 5,130 minutes on the pitch before injury time. There is no wonder the squad have been consistently plagued with injuries. Bruno Guimaraes, Fabian Schar, and Lewis Miley are most notable, with all three expected to return sometime following the international break.
It is against this backdrop that the Magpies enter their first home derby since Alexander Mitrovic pulled back a draw at St James Park during the relegation battle of 2016. Though Newcastle were subsequently relegated that season, they returned to the top flight the following year. Sunderland have not quite been awarded the same fate. Following relegation at the end of the next season, the Black Cats returned to the Premier League for the 25/26 season after almost ten years away.
For teams with such a strong history, the two have only met three times in the last ten years. While they haven’t met often, there is no suggestion that the rivalry has dampened whatsoever. It is so ingrained in the Toon army that Newcastle fans kept up the joke thousands of miles away when travelling to Azerbaijan for a Champions League fixture.
At Qarabag away, following the realisation that their club mascot was a horse, Mags fans started chants of “you’re getting punched in the morning”- a niche reference to 2013’s Tyne Wear derby where Toon fan Barry Rodgerson punched West Yorkshire police horse, Bud, in the face outside St. James’ Park following a 3-0 loss to Sunderland. There were even offers from Newcastle supporters to buy new shoes for the Qarabag mascot after discovering he had holes in his current pair.
Toon fans don’t like to let things go. After their last result, Newcastle won’t want to make the same mistake again. The Magpies have a score to settle following the sorry state they found themselves in at the Stadium of Light in December. Nick Woltemade will certainly be looking to rectify his mistake, hoping to put the ball in their net rather than his own. The German will hope to leave St James’ with his head held high instead of his cap pulled down over his face.
Newcastle’s previous form does not bode well for them. Eddie Howe’s side have become synonymous with conceding late goals. The Mags were unable to capitalise on the home advantage against rivals Barcelona in the Champions League, with a misstep from Malick Thiaw awarding the Spanish side a penalty subsequently netted by 18-year-old Lamine Yamal.
It’s another fate they’d like to avoid, but these mistakes are becoming more and more frequent. The Mags tend to spend more time hoping to subvert fate than actually putting in the work to change it. Harvey Barnes shared the fans’ sentiment post-game, admitting it was “disappointing to concede so late on” after putting them ahead in the 86th minute.
Over the course of 22 games this year alone, Newcastle have conceded 43 goals. That’s more than any other team across Europe’s top five leagues. Howe’s side have conceded three or more goals in eight of these matches. Anthony Elanga’s brace against Barcelona was consolatory against their seven goals. It does just reinforce the sentiment that Newcastle’s squad is absolutely exhausted.
How can you expect results from a team on its last legs?
