Full disclosure: I run a blog that covers Atlético tactically, so I'm coming at this from our side. But I think some of this is useful context for Spurs fans too.
We're not comfortable, and here's why
The 5-2 scoreline masks a much tighter first leg than most people realise. xG was 3.12–1.41, shots were 11-11, box shots 9-9. Most of our goals came from your errors rather than our build-up play. We also made mistakes — Oblak's mispass gifted Solanke his goal, Ruggeri was exposed for Porro's opener. And we have a recent trauma: this season's Copa semi-final, we took a 4-0 first-leg lead to Camp Nou and lost 0-3. One more goal and it would have gone to extra time. Cardoso referenced that match explicitly at yesterday's presser.
Our weaknesses tonight
Oblak is out. Juan Musso replaces him — he's been excellent in La Liga (4 straight clean sheets) but this is a step up in intensity. Five players (Llorente, Pubill, Giuliano Simeone, Le Normand, Lenglet) are one yellow from missing the quarter-final, which will force early subs and reshape our team in the second half. Barrios is re-injured and Mendoza is out, so our midfield depth is thin.
Where we think we'll hurt you
Simeone's stated plan is to score early, not sit back. Llorente's first-half display in the first leg — goal in the 6th, press creating the 2-0 in the 14th — effectively killed the tie within 22 minutes. Expect the same intensity. Álvarez (100th Atlético appearance, 2G 1A in the first leg, 30 career UCL goal involvements) will be the focal point.
What might work for you
If you press Musso aggressively in build-up — the way Oblak's mispass was punished — there could be moments of vulnerability. Our card-threatened players may also play more conservatively, which could create pockets of space. And honestly, Richarlison was your biggest threat in the first leg — his headed chance in the 54th minute was probably Spurs' best moment. Losing him is a significant blow.
Full tactical preview from our perspective: cholismo-lab.com
Best of luck tonight. Should be a fascinating match regardless of the aggregate.
by Proper-Law-529