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West Ham United may only need three more wins and a draw to stay in the Premier League this season after their 1-0 win away to in-form Fulham.
That’s according to a BBC Sport analyst who has conducted painstaking research into 30 years’ worth of Premier League history and statistics combined with looking at remaining fixtures and expected points forecasts for the Hammers and their relegation rivals.
Crysencio Summerville’s seventh goal in 10 games drew West Ham level on 28 points with Nottingham Forest in 17th place with nine games to go.
The victory at Craven Cottage means the Hammers are just a point behind Spurs ahead of their clash with Crystal Palace on Thursday night and three behind Leeds following their defeat to Sunderland.
West Ham can survive with 10 more points says analyst
After the win over Fulham, Hammers News analysed the remaining fixtures and forecast that West Ham will stay up if they win four of their last nine games.
But in actual fact, the feat might be even more achievable for Nuno Espirito Santo’s side.
Three HUGE points 😍 Rate West Ham’s chances of survival in just one word 👇
Credit: Getty Images/Rob Newell – CameraSport
Because West Ham only need three wins and a draw to stay up according to a BBC Sport analyst.
That in itself would have looked a near impossible task for the Hammers based on their form in the first 21 games of the season.
The turnaround in the last two months, though, means three wins and a draw from nine games very much looks feasible.
Photo by Julian Finney/Getty Images
West Ham have taken 14 points from their last eight games.
Repeat that in the final nine and the Hammers will be almost certain to survive.
The reality is that Nuno and his men may only need to take 10 more points to be a Premier League side for a 15th consecutive campaign.
The 40-point mark was always seen as the “magic” number for Premier League safety.
But BBC Sport’s Jonty Colman has performed a deep dive into 30 years of Premier League relegation statistics and a look ahead at what’s to come.
Who was your MOTM against Fulham and why? 🤔
Photo by Julian Finney/Getty Images
Colman has deduced that West Ham can stay up with 38 points, meaning three wins and a draw will be enough to stave off demotion to the Championship.
Colman has revealed that Premier League teams finishing on 36 or more points in each of the last nine seasons were guaranteed to survive.
But while two more will be needed this term, it is less than the 40-42 many have been predicting for some time.
“In the 20-team Premier League era, starting from the 1995-96 season, the average number of points needed for survival, or the number of points the 18th place team finished plus one, is 35.53 – rounded to 36 points,” Colman said.
“No team in the last nine campaigns have earned 36 points and been relegated.
“This season however is on track to be the toughest to survive in for a decade. After 29 rounds of games, 18th place is currently set to finish on 37 points, meaning 38 points would ensure survival.”
Photo by Tiego Grenho/MI News/NurPhoto via Getty Images
West Ham do of course hold the unwanted record of being the team relegated with the most points after 42 failed to keep them up in 2003.
West Ham now know four wins should all but guarantee safety for Nuno’s side.
But knowing three victories and a draw could be enough takes a bit of pressure off, especially as the Hammers have five winnable games against Wolves, Crystal Palace, Everton, Brentford and Leeds United among their last nine.
Relegation run-in remaining fixtures:TeamRemaining fixtures (Opponent + H/A)West Ham UnitedManchester City (H), Aston Villa (A), Wolves (H), Crystal Palace (A), Everton (H), Brentford (A), Arsenal (H), Newcastle United (A) and Leeds United (H)Nottingham ForestFulham (H), Spurs (A), Aston Villa (H), Burnley (H), Sunderland (A), Chelsea (A), Newcastle United (H), Man United (A) and Bournemouth (H)Tottenham HotspurCrystal Palace (H), Liverpool (A), Nottingham Forest (H), Sunderland (A), Brighton (H), Wolves (A), Aston Villa (A), Leeds United (H), Chelsea (A) and Everton (H)Leeds UnitedCrystal Palace (A), Brentford (H), Man United (A), Wolves (H), Bournemouth (A), Burnley (H), Spurs (A), Brighton (H) and West Ham (A)Join Our Newsletter
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