Football writer Alex Keble analyses where the midweek fixtures could be won and lost, including:
– Will a more open game help Villa get their Champions League hopes back on track?
– Will in-form Sesko show Newcastle what they’ve been missing this season?
– Does Brighton’s winning streak put Arsenal in danger of dropped points?
– Would a stress-free victory over Forest make Man City title favourites?
– What will happen to Spurs if they cannot beat Palace?
– Can West Ham afford anything less than three points at Fulham?
Will a more open game help Villa get their Champions League hopes back on track?
This is without doubt the most important Premier League game that either Aston Villa or Chelsea have played this season. With one win in eight in the competition between them, it’s a six-pointer that could decide which of the two clubs will be playing UEFA Champions League football in 2026/27.
The pattern of Villa’s recent results has alarmed many supporters but ironically it is the consistency of the pattern that ought to make them hopeful of a change in fortune soon. In fact, the tactical shape of this one might even favour the hosts.
Chelsea have been relentlessly progressive under Liam Rosenior, passing riskily out from the back under pressure and engaging a full pitch man-to-man press, which has resulted in some slightly wild end-to-end matches.
That is precisely what Villa want. Recent dropped points against Wolverhampton Wanderers, Brentford, Leeds United, and Everton have all seen Unai Emery’s side come unstuck against a narrow low block that surrounds Morgan Rogers and slows Villa down.
But it’s notable that over the same period Villa have beaten Newcastle United and Brighton & Hove Albion, two clubs lured into Villa’s usual press-baiting trap.
Chelsea are likely to do similar, allowing Villa to play on the counter-attack and stretch their legs. However, with confidence low, that might not be enough to compete against Rosenior’s side.
One of the biggest games of the Premier League season so far could also be one of its most entertaining – and unpredictable.
Will in-form Sesko show Newcastle what they’ve been missing this season?
Back in early August, Newcastle reportedly believed they were on the brink of agreeing a deal to sign Benjamin Sesko from RB Leipzig, only for Manchester United to hijack the move. Six months later, it’s fair to say Newcastle’s striker problem hasn’t relented.
Yoane Wissa is sidelined again and Nick Woltemade, who is a doubt due to illness, has dropped to the bench recently to leave Anthony Gordon as the makeshift No 9. Newcastle’s top Premier League goalscorer is Bruno Guimaraes with nine, which to a large extent explains the club’s disappointing season domestically.
Last season Newcastle finished 24 points ahead of Man Utd. This year they are 15 points behind after the dramatic upturn in form under Michael Carrick coincided with a record of five defeats from six for Eddie Howe.
The growing chasm between the clubs, and their drastically contrasting fortunes over the last few months, could be cruelly highlighted further on Wednesday when Sesko visits St James’ Park for the first time.
Sesko’s brilliant winner against Crystal Palace at the weekend took him to seven goals in eight matches post-Ruben Amorim, with Man Utd’s super-sub scoring a goal every 49.7 minutes in that time.
Watch: EVERY Sesko goal in 2026 so farDoes Brighton’s winning streak put Arsenal in danger of dropped points?
The timing of this game is not ideal for Arsenal despite their back-to-back wins in London derbies against Tottenham Hotspur and Chelsea.
Brighton have won their last two Premier League games after having only won one of their previous 13 beforehand (D6 L6), and in doing so have become the latest mid-table club to suddenly propel themselves into European contention.
With their tails up, Brighton at Amex Stadium might prove to be formidable opponents for Arsenal, much as they were in two 1-1 draws in the Premier League in 2024/25.
What’s more, Arsenal’s continued reliance on set-pieces to open the score could be an issue here.
Of the 20 occasions that Arsenal have gone 1-0 up in the Premier League this season, 13 times their opener came from either a set-piece or a penalty, meaning that 65 per cent of the time Arteta’s side need a set-play to make the breakthrough.
Brighton have conceded just five set-piece goals this season, the joint-fewest in the Premier League. This match is far from a foregone conclusion.
Would a stress-free victory over Forest make Man City title favourites?
Man City’s 1-0 victory over Leeds was noteworthy for being without note. Pep Guardiola’s side took the lead then eased their way through the second half, recording three points with the minimum of fuss. If that is becoming a habit then it suggests the old Man City – the ruthless, unstoppable machine – is back.
The idea hasn’t quite had cut through yet, but it might if Man City record their seventh consecutive victory in all competitions against Nottingham Forest, especially if it is again achieved without drama.
That is clearly the likeliest outcome given the history of this fixture (Forest have lost all three of their league games at the Etihad Stadium, by an aggregate score of 11-0, since returning to the top flight in 2022/23) and yet it will be treated as something new; as a sign of something much bigger.
Man City have won 16 of their last 19 Premier League home games, losing just once, and despite Forest’s initial improvements under Vitor Pereira the 2-1 defeat at Brighton has made it three defeats in a row in all competitions.
Should City take an early lead and win at a canter, pundits will start paying attention to the evidence that Guardiola has rediscovered the formula.
What will happen to Spurs if they cannot beat Palace?
“More personality, more wish to do before reacting, plenty of things,” Igor Tudor said after the 2-1 defeat to Fulham when asked what his Spurs side were lacking. “Brains” was also put forward by the new Spurs head coach.
“We are lacking when we attack, we lack the quality to score the goal. We are lacking in the middle to run and we are lacking behind to stay there to suffer and not concede the goal. So, an amazing situation. Amazing.”
Tudor’s strong words tell us he is under no illusions about the size of the task at hand, nor how extraordinary the situation is. Spurs really could go down.
By the time they face Palace on Thursday, the final game of the round, Spurs will know if the gap to 18th has narrowed, potentially piling pressure onto a fixture that looks far harder than it did a few weeks ago.
Palace were 1-0 up at half-time at Old Trafford at the weekend and on track to win their third game in a row in all competitions.
That the fixture turned on a penalty and red-card incident Oliver Glasner described as “very harsh” suggests Palace won’t have lost confidence – and will expect to pounce on any sluggishness in the Spurs team.
A third defeat from three for Tudor doesn’t bear thinking about. But there is every reason to think it might happen.
Can West Ham afford anything less than three points at Craven Cottage?
There are no easy games in West Ham United‘s position but a look at the fixture list suggests this is one of the matches Nuno Espirito Santo’s side must win.
They play Man City (H) and Aston Villa (A) in the two Premier League matches after it, so if they don’t beat Fulham there is a strong chance they will return to Premier League action on 11 April, at home to Wolves, at least four points short of 17th.
The battle against relegation is a psychological one as much as anything else, and West Ham cannot afford to fear being cut adrift when the run-in officially begins.
But that looks relatively likely. Fulham have won three consecutive matches in all competitions and were superb in the 2-1 win against Spurs at the weekend.