There is certainly no doubting that Aston Villa have overachieved this season. Even though they narrowly missed out on Champions League qualification last term, their financial situation meant they were expected to struggle to match the level they had in previous years.
This perception was compounded by failing to win any of their opening five Premier League games and the ongoing uncertainty over the futures of senior players Ollie Watkins and Emiliano Martinez.
Despite their surprising position in the table, this recent regression has not been any less frustrating for Villa supporters.
Their restriction in the transfer market compared to other sides near the top of the table was always likely to affect the strength of their squad.
They have been less afflicted by injuries than their rivals, but the loss of key performers Boubacar Kamara, John McGinn and Youri Tielemens has had a major impact.
Unai Emery tactically likes to overload central areas in attack, which is why he opts for one of his wide players in his 4-2-3-1 system to play more narrowly and the other to stretch the play.
Morgan Rogers’ importance means that he can operate across all attacking areas for Villa, although he has predominantly played as a No.10 since the start of the year.
With the midfield far from functional due to current injuries, Emery may feel that playing Rogers – ranked at no.8 in FourFourTwo’s list of the best attacking midfielders in the world right now – behind Watkins helps his team defensively and not just in an attacking sense.
However, with Leeds United and now Wolverhampton Wanderers playing three at the back and two holding midfielders, Villa and Rogers have struggled to create chances.
Operating from the left-hand side in December, Rogers was arguably the best player in the league with two goals against both Manchester United and West Ham United.
At Molineux on Friday night, the attacker looked visibly frustrated with teammate Watkins when the striker failed to read a through-ball and threw his arms into the air.
He was uncharacteristically petulant when he became involved in an altercation with Wolves centre-back Yerson Mosquera.
Morgan Rogers will be hoping to recapture form from earlier this season, as Villa push on in the run-in (Image credit: Getty Images)
Rogers did spark into life when he moved out to the left wing when Tammy Abraham was introduced, but as soon as Alysson came on just 15 minutes later, he resumed a more central position.
Like Villa, Rogers’ goals have far exceeded his Expected Goals (xG) metric, which suggests he scores more spectacular goals rather than so-called easier chances.
The xG statistic is far from perfect, but it does illustrate the team’s struggles in front of goal.
Villa are 15th in xG and the only team in the top six not in the same position in the actual table.
There are nine teams with more league goals than Villa, with Watkins and Rogers scoring 16 of their 38.
Emiliano Buendia and McGinn have both contributed, but Emery will demand more from his pacy wide players like Jadon Sancho.
Unai Emery’s team have struggled of late (Image credit: Alamy)
The decision to let Donyell Malen go to Roma and Leon Bailly return the other way has only benefited Gian Piero Gasperini’s side, with the Dutch international netting six goals in seven starts as a striker.
With games against direct rivals for the Champions League positions and the Europa League last 16 tie versus Lille in March, Villa need to find more fluency in attack.
Rogers moving back out to the left may just benefit the team, as at his best, he can play the hybrid role of cutting inside and beating opposition defenders with speed.
He has four goals and two assists in eight league starts out wide, and he might just stimulate Emery’s team to maintain a top-five finish.