Charlie Cummings previews Saturday’s English Premier League match between Burnley and Brentford.
With the English Premier League season heading toward a conclusion, Matchweek 28 highlights the stakes of these last 11 games. Brentford is looking to continue its rise in the Premier League ranks by challenging for a spot in European football. Meanwhile, Burnley are in a tight spot and need to pick up some points fast to avoid relegation. But only one team can get its wish on Saturday.
Brentford are -125 ML favorites on DraftKings Sportsbook. A Burnley upset is priced at +340 odds, with the draw at +280. The over/under for this game is set at 2.5 goals. Let’s get into a prediction and a pick for this matchup.
Burnley vs. Brentford prediction, pick
Much of Brentford’s success is owed to their offense. The Bees have scored 40 times in 27 matches, the seventh-best mark in the league. Five of the six teams ahead of them are in position to play European football next season. If the Bees can dial it in down the stretch, they could be the sixth team, and it would be well deserved. The key has been Igor Thiago, who has found the net 17 times in his first full season with the club. Burnley will have to keep him well-marked on Saturday.
That may prove to be an issue. No team has conceded more goals than Burnley, who have conceded 52 times in 27 matches. That league-worst defense, combined with the fourth-worst offense, is why Burnley find themselves in a relegation position. Eight points away from safety, it’s going to take a serious effort from the Clarets to avoid being sent down.
For Brentford, the key is to keep pressing on this Burnley back line. They’ve buckled time and time again, but goalkeeper Martin Dubravka can stand on his head. If you don’t generate good chances, he will stifle you. Players like Mikkel Damsgaard and Vitaly Janelt have to press their advantages to break through, or else they risk complacency and letting Burnley back into the game.
For Burnley, they have to attack enough to offset their leaky defense. Marcus Edwards and Jaidon Anthony have to be productive on the outside, while Zian Flemming must finish what is put in front of him. Wrangling any points from this tie would be a success, and they won’t get much if the attack cannot produce.
Burnley may find a way to make this one competitive. But, ultimately, this is Brentford’s game to lose. They should run riot against an incompetent Burnley defense and move three points closer to European football.
Best Bet: Brentford Moneyline (-125)