We analyse the data to reveal the standout Cherries options for their kind schedule
The Scout looks at the underlying statistics to reveal the best AFC Bournemouth players in Fantasy Premier League for their favourable fixtures.
AFC Bournemouth‘s overlooked players have both the form and fixtures to help managers get ahead of their mini-league rivals over the coming period in Fantasy.
According to the Fixture Difficulty Ratings (FDR), where the difficulty of each match is ranked from one to five – with one being the easiest possible match and five being the hardest – two of their next three matches score only two: at home to Sunderland this weekend and at Burnley in Gameweek 30.
As the table below shows, the Cherries have three home fixtures across the next four Gameweeks, including one against Manchester United in the reduced Blank Gameweek 31 (BGW31).
Bournemouth’s next four matches
GW
Opp.
FDR*
28
Sunderland (H)
2
29
Brentford (H)
3
30
Burnley (A)
2
31
Man Utd (H)
3
*1=easiest possible fixture, 5=hardest possible fixture
As a reminder, a Blank Gameweek occurs when at least two top-flight clubs DON’T have a Premier League fixture in a particular Gameweek.
That run of matches at Vitality Stadium could be good news for Bournemouth’s prospects of clean sheets, in particular.
In home matches this season, the Cherries have conceded fewer big chances – situations where a player is expected to score – than any other side.
They have allowed their opponents 12 such opportunities across 13 home matches, with leaders Arsenal the next best on 15.
So, who are the best Bournemouth picks for their kind schedule? Let’s look at the data and find out.
Who are Bournemouth’s form players?
James Hill (£4.1m) has proven a budget gem for managers recently, thanks to his output at both ends of the pitch.
The defender has supplied two assists and collected two clean sheets over the last four Gameweeks to amass 29 points.
Hill bettered his fellow centre-back Marcos Senesi (£4.9m) by six defensive contribution points (DC) to two in this spell, a reflection of his growing impact on the Bournemouth defence since securing a regular role in Gameweek 19.
Impressively, Hill’s 46 points over the last nine Gameweeks is not only a team-leading total, but it places him third among all defenders in Fantasy, bettered only by the 62 and 56 points of premium pair Gabriel (£7.1m) and Virgil van Dijk (£6.0m).
Similarly to Hill, goalkeeper Djordje Petrovic and left-back Adrien Truffert (both £4.5m) outperformed the 17 points of Senesi.
Yet whereas Senesi is Bournemouth’s most-popular player thanks to his 15 per cent ownership, Hill, Petrovic and Truffert are each found in under six per cent of squads, underlining their appeal as great differentials.
The table below also shows the immediate impact of new winger Rayan (£5.6m).
After making his debut off the bench in Gameweek 24, he has started the subsequent three Gameweeks, scoring twice and supplying an assist during his brief time with the Cherries to date.
Nonetheless, he was still outperformed by 24 points to 22 by central midfielder Alex Scott (£5.0m). Although he scored only once, Scott collected a further nine points through defensive contributions and bonus points.
Bournemouth’s top-scoring players, last four Gameweeks
Player
Pts
G+A
Clean sheets
DC/Bonus pts
Hill
29
2
2
8
Petrovic
25
0
2
4
Scott
24
1
2
9
Rayan
22
3
1
2
Truffert
21
1
2
2
Adli
20
2
2
3
Scroll across to see the full table on mobile. DC = Defensive contribution points
How does Rayan compare with Bournemouth’s other attackers?
Rayan’s three goal involvements over those four matches since his arrival has made him the top target among the Bournemouth attackers, with more than 55,000 transfers in.
Goal threat
As you can see from the table below, Rayan’s nine shots and 32.7 minutes per shot both rank top among his team-mates over the last four Gameweeks, although it’s worth noting that only four of those attempts were from inside the box.
While budget forward Junior Kroupi (£4.7m) ranks second only to Rayan here for both shots and minutes per shot, it’s fellow forward Evanilson (£6.9m) who has offered the greatest close-range threat, albeit marginally.
Evanilson leads the way with five shots in the box, while he ranks joint-top along with Amine Adli (£5.4m) on two big chances, which are situations where a player is expected to score.
Goal threat, last four Gameweeks
Player
Shots
Shots in box
Mins/shot
Big chances
Rayan
9
4
32.7
1
Scott
7
4
51.4
1
Kroupi
7
3
36.7
1
Evanilson
6
5
51.5
2
Adli
5
3
59.8
2
Scroll across to see the full table on mobile
Assist potential
Rayan also created six chances for his team-mates, joint-second with Kroupi here. Set-piece taker Adli claimed top spot with eight chances created at an average of one every 37 minutes.
Also factoring in the table above, then, there’s no standout player in terms of big-chance involvement.
Nonetheless, Rayan does rank joint-top with a total of two, along with Evanlison, Adli and Kroupi.
Creativity, last four Gameweeks
Chances created
Mins/chance created
Big chances created
Adli
8
37
0
Kroupi
6
43
1
Rayan
6
49
1
Evanilson
4
77
0
Scott
3
120
0
Scroll across to see the full table on mobile
So, who are the best Bournemouth picks?
Hill’s huge impact since securing a regular role arguably makes him the best budget defender to own in Fantasy right now. His ultra-low price tag also allows you to free up cash to afford bigger spends in attack on players as Liverpool forward Hugo Ekitike (£8.9m) ahead of his own kind schedule.
Senesi has bettered Hill by three shots in the box to zero in that recent period, though, and the Argentinian’s owners should certainly be happy to hold for this kind run.
Elsewhere at the back, although goalkeeper Petrovic isn’t a priority pick, he looks a great option for those playing their Wildcards right now.
Bournemouth’s attacking numbers show that Rayan boasts a decent all-round threat and, similar to Hill, he can be another great budget differential due to an ownership of just 1.9 per cent.
Notably, Rayan was the only Cherries attacker to play the full 90 minutes against West Ham United last weekend, perhaps an indication of his growing importance to boss Andoni Iraola.
Bearing in mind that their midweek match against Brentford in Gameweek 29 follows three days after their match against Sunderland this weekend, Rayan’s ability to avoid having his minutes managed may ultimately prove decisive, particularly as penalty-taker Marcus Tavernier (£5.3m) is now fit and pushing for a return to the starting line-up.