Manchester City had just beaten Newcastle United for the third time in succession, and for the 17th time in a row in the Premier League at the Etihad, yet Pep Guardiola described the prospect of facing Eddie Howe’s side again in the FA Cup on March 7 as “a nightmare”.
“Physicality, pace, the way they play is so difficult,” he said of Newcastle afterwards. “An incredible, complete team.”
Whether Guardiola was being entirely genuine, or there was an element of faux praise, he was effusive in his assessment.
Yet, even if the 2-1 scoreline was narrower than Newcastle’s usual margin of defeat against Manchester City, they still suffered their customary loss at the Etihad.
The Athletic analyses what Howe must change over the next fortnight if Newcastle are to win against Manchester City at St James’ Park and keep alive their best hope of claiming silverware this season.
Stop the soft concessions
Fundamentally, Newcastle have to improve at both ends, especially at the back, where they keep conceding soft goals at inopportune moments.
That may seem harsh after only shipping two at Manchester City — only three sides have conceded fewer in a Premier League game at the Etihad this season, with Tottenham Hotspur the only visitors to leave with a clean sheet — but if Newcastle gift Guardiola’s team multiple goals on Tyneside, they will lose.
In the Premier League, Newcastle have kept just two clean sheets in 20 games. Across all competitions, it is three shutouts in 27 matches.
Exasperatingly, Newcastle are being far too charitable, too. In the top flight, Newcastle have conceded 39 goals from an expected goals against (xGA) — which measures the quality of chances — of 32.5. The 6.5 goals Newcastle have conceded above their xGA is the second-most in the Premier League (after Wolverhampton Wanderers’ 9.8).
Nico O’Reilly’s goals were preventable and Howe described them as “poor” concessions.
The first came from Manchester City scything through Newcastle and exploiting the space behind Kieran Trippier — a tactic they repeated throughout the first half — while Nick Pope should have saved that effort, having also allowed Qarabag’s consolation to beat him too easily in midweek.
For the second, Nick Woltemade was too weak when closing down Antoine Semenyo, and nobody tracked O’Reilly’s run into the box.
Nico O’Reilly scores Manchester City’s second goal at the Etihad (Martin Rickett/PA Images via Getty Images)
Concentration levels and mental fatigue appear to be affecting the back line. For the most part, they are defending relatively well, before lapses in focus — which teams as good as Manchester City punish.
Malick Thiaw’s run of 38 consecutive starts will end on Tuesday, given he is suspended for the second leg of the Champions League tie with Qarabag, but hopefully Sven Botman will return this week.
“We’re missing some top defenders that would have made a difference,” Howe said afterwards. “I’m sure if we’d had those players available, that (defensive) record wouldn’t sound as negative as it does.”
Turn openings into clear-cut chances — and goals
In a post-Alexander Isak world, Newcastle are struggling in front of goal in the Premier League.
Only Kylian Mbappe (13) has scored more goals than Anthony Gordon (10) in the Champions League, but the Newcastle forward has only three from 21 games in the Premier League, reflecting the team’s domestic struggles as a whole.
Newcastle have scored 38 goals in the league, but their xG is 40.5. Their 30.3 per cent conversion rate of Opta-defined ‘big chances’ is the third-worst in the Premier League, with Newcastle scoring only 20 of those 66 opportunities.
Yet, beyond their profligacy, Newcastle are also failing to turn openings into clear-cut chances. At the Etihad, they did not actually manage to create a ‘big chance’ and, despite having seven shots on target, their xG was only 0.62.
Howe boldly set Newcastle up to press man-to-man and then, once they won possession, look to catch Manchester City on the break. Far too often, however, either the attempted balls to play forwards in behind the opposition defence were misdirected, or Gordon, Anthony Elanga and Joe Willock were guilty of poor final-third decision-making.
Joe Willock lacked a clinical edge against Manchester City (Serena Taylor/Newcastle United via Getty Images)
When Newcastle overcame Manchester City 2-1 at St James’ in November, Harvey Barnes was ruthless in front of goal. Similar efficiency is required next month.
Midfield balance — without Bruno Guimaraes
Against Aston Villa and Qarabag, Woltemade’s shift from striker to left-sided No 8 had looked promising, with flashes of his creativity and footballing intelligence.
At the Etihad, the German’s lack of physicality and speed were exposed in midfield during his first Premier League outing there.
Joelinton’s introduction in his place for the final half-hour added power and impetus to Newcastle’s engine room.
Getting Joelinton fully fit for the FA Cup game against City next month is essential for Howe, especially given talismanic captain Guimaraes will still be absent with his hamstring issue.
Worryingly, Newcastle have only won three of the 16 games in all competitions that Guimaraes has missed since February 2022. All three have come in non-Premier League games, however, including two in the past three games.
Without Guimaraes, who has 16 goal involvements this season, Newcastle lack leadership and creativity from midfield. Theoretically, Woltemade can fill that void, but the balance of a midfield three with Jacob Ramsey and Sandro Tonali did not quite work at the Etihad, so that needs recalibrating.
Home comforts
The major reason for optimism for the last-16 FA Cup tie, beyond Newcastle’s clear uptick in performances post-Brentford, is that it will take place on Tyneside.
At the Etihad, Newcastle’s aggregate score across seven visits under Howe is 19-2 against. They have managed zero victories and zero draws.
Meanwhile, at St James’, Howe has twice overcome Guardiola, in the Carabao Cup in 2023 and then in the league in November.
True, Manchester City did leave Tyneside with a 2-0 win in the first leg of the Carabao Cup semi-final last month, but at least there is a recent precedent for beating Manchester City on home turf.
On Saturday, Guardiola joked that Newcastle were welcome to travel back to Manchester for the fifth-round clash instead, to save his own side the “nightmare trip”. He knows the St James’ atmosphere can act as a levelling force against elite teams.
Newcastle are an entirely different proposition at home in night games under the lights, while Howe’s domestic knockout record on Tyneside is magnificent, with only three defeats across five seasons (albeit two came in the FA Cup).
The St James’ factor, above all else, is the main reason for hope.