It should not be lost on anyone how remarkable it would be for Aston Villa to secure Champions League football this season.
Villa have occupied a top four spot since November 23, when they beat Saturday’s opponents, Leeds United, in the reverse fixture at Elland Road. Holding their position for so long has perhaps coloured perceptions and added a layer of expectation for the rest of the campaign.
Even though Unai Emery insists he is “not surprised” by Villa being in third place, you only have to cast your mind back to the early weeks of the season to realise it was not always supposed to be this way.
This is a Villa team with the lowest net spend of any team in the top-flight (£31million or $42million at current exchange rates), following a tumultuous summer in which they were stifled by financial restrictions. An alarming sense of stagnation had begun to set in.
Their subsequent transformation was sudden and acute, underpinned by 11 straight wins across all competitions before the turn of the year. Even if the outlook is no longer that positive for Villa they still find themselves, in the words of Emery in his programme notes against Leeds, in a “beautiful and fantastic moment”.
Unai Emery maintains Aston Villa are in a ‘beautiful and fantastic moment’ despite some recent struggles (Harry Murphy – AVFC/Aston Villa FC via Getty Images)
Securing Champions League qualification for a second time in three seasons would condition longer-term plans.
It would afford Villa far greater scope to recruit, fend off financial restrictions and, most importantly, help in keeping their manager and key players at the club. They need revenue to do all that, and playing in Europe’s top club tournament moves the needle in that sense — Villa stand to earn more than €18.6million ($22m; £16m) alone from qualifying for the league phase.
“I have always said that it is through the league we shape the future of our club,” Emery continued in those notes.
This was Villa’s 27th league match of the season and six away from the 33 when Emery, as he has been telling reporters, will offer a true assessment of his side’s credentials and where they aim to end up.
It was a test of Villa’s mettle and highlighted the challenges they faced in previous weeks at home. Leeds are physical, direct and can sit in a low block, compacting central areas. Daniel Farke’s back five is aggressive in stepping onto opposing No 10s and, in possession, can switch the ball quickly — an issue Emery’s narrow system has struggled with on several occasions, notably against Crystal Palace, who beat them 3-0 in August and held them to a goalless draw in January.
Internal and outward expectations continue to rise, however. A win was needed to calm any nerves — and third versus 15th before kick-off should have made Villa comfortable favourites, even if Emery repeatedly rankles at the suggestion that teams at the bottom are inferior.
It also marked the first game of the 11 remaining where Villa, according to Opta Power Rankings, have the kindest fixture list of any Premier League side.
Opta Power Rankings are a global team ranking system that assigns an ability score to more than 10,000 men’s teams and more than 2,000 women’s teams on a scale between zero and 100, where zero would signal the worst-ranked team in the world and 100 the best team in the world.
According to the rankings, Villa’s schedule is the least difficult. Seven of the 11 remaining games, including against Leeds, are ranked in the “easier” bracket.
Yet data does not quantify pressure, strategies and the many intangibles that come with every contest. Underlying metrics, for example, would not take into account a sending off, which occurred in two of Villa’s previous three home matches.
Stylistically, Villa’s past struggles against similar teams meant Leeds was unlikely to feel “easier”.
Had it not been for substitute Tammy Abraham’s late, instinctive equaliser to secure a 1-1 draw, they would have lost their fourth home match in five across all competitions, with Villa the favourites going into each of them.
Despite securing a point, familiar traits of defeat were on display again. Villa Park carried a tension that mirrored the players’ feelings, even with a six-point buffer in the fight for a Champions League place after full-time thanks to Chelsea’s draw with Burnley.
With a style that requires high precision and ruthlessness in front of goal, Villa’s cautiousness was only magnified. Some players appeared inhibited, none more so than winger Leon Bailey.
The Jamaica international’s final dribble again let him down. Before the fourth official even held his board up to signal Bailey’s substitution for Jadon Sancho in the 61st minute, the 28-year-old was already trudging off, carrying the weight of the world on his shoulders.
Supporters pleaded for Abraham’s introduction, singing the name of the January arrival from Besiktas as he warmed up. Ollie Watkins and Bailey were struggling, and the roars of frustration for every overhit cross or pass in the attacking third were audible. The lurch from confidence to anxiety has been a key reason Villa have not held their nerve in some supposedly easier fixtures.
A lot of what supporters feared and hoped would not materialise, did. Leeds went a goal ahead and successfully crowded out central areas, while operating in a wing-back system that stretched Villa’s out-of-possession shape.
The heavens opened and Villa continued to play predictably. Emiliano Martinez’s save from Lukas Nmecha’s header in the 74th minute kept them in the game, with Villa equalising in the only way probable — a scruffy goal from a set piece.
Opta rankings do not factor in how sorely Villa miss absentees, such as the injured Youri Tielemans (ankle) and John McGinn (knee), who are critical in Emery’s system. Without them, as shown for large parts on Saturday, Villa can be one-paced and their frontline’s failings laid bare.
Emery would bristle at the suggestion this was an easy game. He would rightly point to Chelsea only achieving a point at home against Burnley, also deemed as an “easier” opponent.
Villa may have a favourable fixture list, but they are carrying the weight of getting over the line in the race for Europe. That pressure was evident against Leeds.